Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[aimingupward2] 12/3/2017 22:06

Are 'expectations' and the mean of brokers forecasts considered, for all practical purposes, to be the same thing or are the 'expectations' only those of the company? If the latter, then they may have been ahead of older and perhaps more conservative, brokers estimates, even prior to any recent comment about them being exceeded.

[bestace] 12/3/2017 20:59

Big7ime - How do you get from that list of one-off factors to a specific figure of 3.7p?

The brokers were forecasting 2.7p before the December trading update, in which adjusted operating profit was said to be "ahead of expectations". A result of 3.7p would be 37% ahead of those expectations, which seems excessive to me.

The trading update came just 2 weeks before the end of the financial year so they should have had a pretty good idea of what the final outturn would be. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but the lack of a qualifier in the update such as 'materially', 'marginally' or 'comfortably' ahead implies to me a 10% outperform might be reasonable (3p), maybe up to 15% (3.1p).

[jaws6] 12/3/2017 20:32

IQE broker consensus analysis given here

[toptrump1] 12/3/2017 19:35

This will come back, google parabolic stock chart. it's a classic Pi trap
Iqe has had this many times the last being 2010/11 look at what happened then, 100% Fibonacci lol
It's a dog, ennismoore are not fooled.

[big7ime] 12/3/2017 18:56

I believe We've already hit 2.91 rhomboid, the mkt expects much more now. The analysts have to be behind the curve
If I'm wrong then excuse my optimism, and expect a share price correction
We've all had AIM stocks with overinflated predictions and not meeting timescales, that's what makes volatility and I love to trade them.
But the board has had to remain cautious in its statements as all sorts of problems can occur (e.g the de-stocking of late) and have in past
I think they have been conservative
These set of results will benefit from a no of one off things all coming together, unwinding of the inventory probs, currency, completion of royalty payts, orders for next gen iPhones (hopefully)
Anything can happen here as the business it's so mysterious.

It's sensible but difficult setting a stop loss after such a rise, what price would you set? 45? Why didn't Ennismore have a reverse stop on their short?
IC were tipping iqe before the herd at about 24 but bailed early as price crashed, I think their tgt was 48 so in hindsight they were ironically spot on.
After a good rise a 50% retracement of the rise is most common in charts. So this could be traders paradise and very volatile the next few mths.
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict traders paradise 52 high this week falling to 34 (it wasn't long ago) at some point next six mths and 65 within a yr to 18mths


Retracements occur when selling pressure comes into the market and the stock price declines. This is also called a correction because it brings the overbought stock back down to a reasonable price level as traders take profits. Gann theory expects a normal retracement of 50 percent. This means that under normal selling pressure, the stock price will decline half the amount of its most recent rise. If selling pressure is light and the stock might trade up, the retracement will be 37.5 percent. If the stock is in a full correction, the retracement will be 62.5 percent of the original run-up in price from previous support. Roughly. Fibonacci is more technical and a lot of traders use it religiously.

[rhomboid] 12/3/2017 15:48

Consensus from 4 brokers is 2.91p, I expect a beat and a v positive outlook fwiw

[aimingupward2] 12/3/2017 15:44

Big7ime says he expects eps "to be nearer 3.7p which gives a p/e of 13.5."

Anybody else think that? I'm not sure what the consensus is. Below 3.5?

[lurki0] 12/3/2017 15:13

Yump:

"Why is the concept of someone holding a stock and at the same time voicing concerns about it, so difficult to understand ?"

Of course there's nothing difficult to understand about that. If it actually happens to be the case. You evidently assume it is so with trumpy. Seriously, it never fails to make me smile how every time a share price begins to take off (and I'm not speaking simply of IQE)a parade of 'conflicted investors' materialise to wring their hands about the good fortune they are experiencing and how they are fearful about what might happen next week, next month etc etc. Why would you do that?

Risk is inherent in investing. We're all grown-ups and know this. What more needs to be said, other than Shanieboy's good advice to set a bunch of stops and enjoy the ride?

[big7ime] 12/3/2017 14:06

The fall in share price to 12p was from fears their wireless business was going to be impacted by cheaper producers, the gearing and structure after acquisition of the Koplin business and shrinking markets.

There were a few major shorters and one remains with 1% of co shorted. IQE knew this so had to diversifyand develop new products. Yump I think you want to ask if photonics replaces wireless or will it run alongside
as the component for mobile phones etc.

Photonics seems to be the key to the rise here, with 45-50% growth expected and is "currently" more profitable. The last int figures showed over 2m profit on 10m sales. Now we want to see at least 27m sales for 16 and a bullish outlook.

IQE has always been a very volatile stock which I have traded several times and have managed to double my inv a few times in the last 15yrs. I don't hold continually knowing the past history, it's not that type of stock IMO. I also would not invest a huge sum as some here make outthat they do, that's just a bit crazy.

I am basing my inv decision mainly on eps and expect it to be nearer 3.7p which gives a p/e of 13.5. Keep an eye on wireless though. I'm in super % profit now but the share price has quadrupled from low so I may trade half on results if theyre not as I expect or maybe before if I lose my nerve as shareprophets tip is normally the kiss o death.

Posters imagine the share price is somehow related to posts on Advfn which maybe true of very tiny cos. This co now valued at 330m? So I don't think the odd "investor" questioning the drivers for share price rise is going to have much impact on share price Sweenoid was posting positives through the heavy falls of 2014-2016 if you get my point.

[yump] 12/3/2017 12:45

Why is the concept of someone holding a stock and at the same time voicing concerns about it, so difficult to understand ?

Holding IQE and hoping for transformational profits is what serious investors do, while having in mind all the risks associated with new tech. and being several steps removed from the final product demand that drives adoption.

imo the key to this investment is knowing which products are replacement tech. at similar prices (where there is unlikely to be any profit increase), and which are shiny new markets and what volume is required to make each one of those new markets for IQE profitable, so that they have a material contribution.

Those are actually quite difficult questions to answer, but faith does not remove them.

[sheep_herder] 12/3/2017 12:17

top, I think you're totally wrong. The business model is exactly like ARM's and the past is the past. The technology is taking off and the status now is very different to way back when.

[lurki0] 12/3/2017 10:39

toptrump 1:

"For now they are riding a sentiment change as the wireless market sighs a final large breath whilst photonics is hoped to replace it."

Presumably given the scepticism inserted into the above comment you are no longer invested in IQE? I only ask since the whole tone of your posts seem to indicate a decidedly negative view of the company and, by extension, you imply that the market is also unconvinced of its prospects.

I believe the contrary and am happy to hold in the expectation of the company benefiting from a transformational profits surge over the next two years. Still, each to his own.

[netcurtains] 12/3/2017 09:42

toptrump1: Not sure if I have the right signs but the PE ratio of GHH (Goouch and Housego) appears to be DOUBLE that of IQE. If GHH is correctly valued doesn't that imply that IQE should have a shot at reaching £1.00 a share (Giving it the same PE as GHH)?? Is that a possibility. Both do manufacturing and photonics. I'm not expert on accounts, finance or electrics - I'm invest using emotional gut feeling, based on my perception of emotions coming from others who post on their shares.

[horneblower] 11/3/2017 21:38

Sell at 60p then buy them back at 50p and hold until they're 100p.

[gersemi] 11/3/2017 17:38

Wrong stock, sorry!

[sheep_herder] 11/3/2017 17:19

Comparissons of the current situation with those of old is pointless. The company and market is in a totally different position. The jam is here and growing.

I also think talk of a bid is unlikely because they have the same business model as ARM, i.e. they take the front end pain and capex and you get to buy your wafer for cost price. The business works because multiple customers pay a share of the development costs.

I'm sure someone will say 'but ARM was bought out'. They were, but not to take control of the business and lock out everyone else. There was always no point in anyone buying ARM because you could get the IP for a reasonable license fee of c.$5m without having to stump up $40B. But then came along a crazy Japanese dude named Masa.

I don't know much about private equity and what they'd get out of a deal but there doesn't seem much to me that they could strip out or break up to turn a quick profit. Again, the business model is built on them supplying everyone with wafters.

[grity] 11/3/2017 17:02

As sheepy says, fill your wellies &
Stick em in the bottom drawer while
You still got a chance to catch a slice
Of the action !!

[toptrump1] 11/3/2017 13:55

As it was last yr you mean?
Look at the threads from 15yrs ago to appreciate why above comments are pointless
Someone on this site was predicting 5p and everyone shot him down as the price was around 250p, yes that's 250
Then came huge dilution, acquisitions, increased debt, director share option controversy etc a long term holder saw his holding decimated and yes it did fall below 5p

Just saying, so if you are a true long term holder then these inv threads are pointless and dangerous and you are better off (or not if you had believed the minority as above) avoiding as most back the wrong horse.

And just last yr When most were highly criticising the co and its directors predicting doom, once again going against the herd and buying was the profitable thing to do.

You've rather proved my point with your example, with them it was the trading update

[aimingupward2] 11/3/2017 13:26

Toptrump 1, your thoughts of perhaps being able to buy at 35p, or even 28, just may come to pass. Absurd opportunities and overvaluations do occur, but 28p would put IQE on a forward p/e of, say, 7-8 and even 35p would mean a p/e of 10 or less. Highly improbable, surely, unless there there is a justifiable feeling that something has gone, or is going badly wrong, for the company.

You could well expect heavy profit taking, irrespective of long term fundamentals when, as with G4M now, there has been a much more dramatic rise in the share price beforehand - a six fold increase in 6 months in that instance - but not (surely?), with the much more muted increase seen by IQE so far.

[bobd29] 11/3/2017 13:16

Can't see it toptrump, there is just too much future growth almost assured for the share price to retrace back to 35p imo. Yes it may fall a little in response to PIs profit taking but the major investors will see any fallback as a buying opportunity taking a longer view imho. So L don't see anything really lower than say 45p short term, then a rise soon after towards 60p. Would not dismiss thoughts of a TO WITHIN 12 months, this share should really be motoring by then.

[aimingupward2] 11/3/2017 13:11

" So if the money isn't needed why sell?"

I'm not a short term trader but a lot are and they are the sort of people who are always susceptible to thinking that there's a better short term opportunity elsewhere.

If we have a dip in the share price on, or soon after, results day on the 21st I certainly expect to be taking advantage and adding.

[toptrump1] 11/3/2017 13:08

Why weren't you buying at 18p? And why wasn't a bid made at that price?

Because it's human behaviour, PIs are at their most bullish when it's riding high
A retracement will come, some 30-50% of the gain so I might be buying at around 35 and if it goes lower maybe at 28 but then when it comes as a PI I will probably not feel too bullish
Holders never Believe they will see a certain price again.

Nobody's talking market crash now, a yr ago many on this website were expecting it, but now it's at a new high it's gone totally silent on the subject and that's when it happens

Buy low sell high, most PIs do the opposite.