Interesting-any spare funds for IQE? |
Are we at all concerned about the lack of insider buying at this historically low price? If, as the trading update says, the board is confident that the share price is not reflective of the value of the business, where is the buying? |
What's factual about guessing at 2-3x current share price You sound like Lemos. |
C'mon, lets see it through 13 and beyond, GLA |
Agreed Sally, GaN will be huge, hard to see how IQE can’t take advantage to some extent and they have already tooled up.
Micro LED is the area that is less certain. All the clever people in that space now seem to be saying it’s probably going to be 2030 before the issues related to technology and cost will allow it to be in a position to be a mega trend volume wise, so it is really all about the general rise is CS and GaN for IQE for the foreseeable. Hopefully our Micro LED partnerships will yield something down the line still though. |
Thank you LTS. |
Lol, what’s annoyed someone about that post? Pretty balanced and factual and non controversial |
Willioc. I think when we know how much of the Taiwan concern IQE will sell and what it’s worth we will also know to some degree what the rest of IQE is worth. Once the dust has settled and the company reset I suspect it’s 2-3 x minimum the current share price
The real issue when that recovery comes (because IQE has gone through many of these up /down cycles now) is at what price to sell. Most investors (including me) have assumed they can become a large billion pound company. I no longer think that so it will be timing the exit to take advantage of the next share price run up. before the next down turn.
GaN is going to be huge, everyone is tooling up for it, they can’t all be wrong and IQE will take their slice of that cake. |
What will IQE's results look like when you take out Taiwan's figures?
Even if a good price is received from the IPO, how much of that will end up in shareholders' hands, short-term or long-term? |
Don’t know about his interest rate but no doubt he has significant real and paper losses on this, he really needs the share price to get past mid 40s.
I’d be delighted to see 40p, although suspect I will be motivated to sell slightly below that, 38p would do me! |
LLOL - the previous figure for his personal holding was 3.39%, and that amount won't change if the loan is rolled over so no need for RNS. If he 'buys' back shares from EFH his personal holding would increase, and RNS required if he crosses a 1% threshold. Increase from yesterday took him to 4.015%.
As I said it is possible he's bought more shares in the market, but something along these lines seems likely to me. |
Future trading outlook has been well and truly taken into account by the fall in the
sp from 35p to the current low teens (12-13).
What has NOT been factored into the share price as yet is the potential intrinsic
value in IQE by its 'Jewel in the Crown'subsidiary in Taiwan.An online article by the
BBC last December clearly shows the benefit of being based in the Semiconductor Capital Of the world:- |
LTS - having dug a bit further it seems you’re right. The original agreement was for a 3 year period from Aug 2019. So it’s already been extended by 2 years. And now, it would seem, possibly longer.
Wonder what interest rate the Admiral’s paying! |
Lords, from memory Drew has been rolling over this particular buyback deal for some time now. |
smorales - thanks for your take on this. You may well be right. But I don’t see why Drew wouldn’t have had to issue a TR1 on 5 August, as that was when the loan agreement expired. Surely an agreement of this sort has a fixed end date, rather than being capable of rollover?
And if Admiral Nelson did repay the loan subsequently, why would he have to issue a TR1 now, as he’s no more an IQE Director now than he was then? |
I think when all brokers update their figures we will have an idea of what to expect in next 2 years. So far the broker averages for 2025 is £126m. I expect this to level out around £110-115m after all 3 brokers update. Currently 2026 shows as 135m with a 9.9m loss. 2024 is currently 10m higher than it should be as not all broker have updated yet.
There is still huge risk here but perhaps the price is factored in already. Pretty much a reset to what happened a year ago. |
LLOL there seems to be differing opinion here on this subject - but here's my view FWIW.
When he was a Director the company was required to announce any transactions relating to his shareholding, but as he wasn't in August there was no obligation to do so. He probably rolled over the loan as previously but we can't be sure.
The 'Major Shareholders' page shows his shareholding at 31st of October as 46,266,881 shares being 4.78%. But that includes 12,121,711 shares lodged with EFH, and if those are removed from the calculation his holding drops to 3.39% which tallies with the 'before' figure on today's RNS.
It could be that he's increased his holding by buying shares in the market. However, I think that if he's just reduced his borrowing from EFH, therefore reducing the required collateral, those 5-6m shares would now count again as part of his personal shareholding and show as an increase for TR1 purposes. |
Well whatever he knows, he will know more than we do! Latest broker numbers only have IQE doing £9m more in 2026 than 2024s £125m. Although I thought the last update from the board was predicting £115m? |
VERY odd that latest TR1 today.
Admiral Nelson was required to repurchase 12,821,358 IQE shares @ 43.96 pence per share by 5 August 2024, under the terms of his sale & repurchase agreement with EFH.
Given the share price hasn't closed anywhere near as high as this over the past year, presumably he's sitting on a fat loss there.
So either he's very brave or unbelievably daft to go & increase his holding even further on 21 November from 3.388% to 4.015%.
Does he know something we don't?
Or is he just a glutton for punishment? He never did seem any good on the commercial front, so perhaps it's the latter...... |
 from Citywire
Crux hangs on for IQE recovery
An inventory unwind and the potential for a Taiwan spin-off should help British semiconductor group IQE (IQE) restore its balance sheet, says Crux Asset Management’s Richard Penny.
He holds the group in his £21m TM Crux UK Core fund where it was the largest detractor from performance in the third quarter, tumbling 46% and dragging 1.5% from fund performance.
The company’s interim trading update saw revenue expectations lowered to the bottom end of the range as some of its markets remained in recovery mode.
‘Cashflow was quite weak during the period as it built up inventory, however, this should unwind somewhat in the second half,’ said Penny.
The potential for a separate listing of its Taiwan operations, potential funding from the US Chips Act that will invest $280bn to bolster US semiconductor capacity, and an ongoing market recovery should ‘all help the balance sheet over the short term’.
‘IQE has under-utilised capacity with a primarily fixed cost base, meaning that as underlying markets recover and revenues grow, profitability should improve quickly,’ said Penny.
The shares jumped 13.1% to 11.9p at the end of last week, but have dropped 48% in 2024 to date. |
Drew Nelsons holding back over 4% threshold |
bots all over it now this morn, c'mon IQE, GLA |
11.74p +1.26 (12.02%)
Looking good in the days ahead |
Back from holiday, looks like a relatively good week for IQE stock.
Fair volume has traded and price has consolidated and started to rise.
RNS came whilst I was away and confirms what we mostly knew, business is bad and Americos dream was extinguished. However all the bad news is now out, they have access to funds to get to and beyond their Taiwan IPO which if they sell the whole of that operation is likely to be worth more than their current MC! Then IQE can cut costs come back lean and focused for GaN mega trend as per an earlier post. Perhaps by then Micro LED might be a goer and the supply chain look better.
I’m not surprised a few have added at these once in a decade levels, I am happy with my holding, not the circumstances that led to me increasing significantly mind, but it’s one for the future and definitely underpriced for those with patience.
Seeing the same thing happen to Wolfspeed gives us some confidence that it’s tough out there for many such companies and not just IQE. |
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