Ip Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 29/12/2020 08:54

Price around historical resistance now.
Taken profit on trading shares.
Possible gap up this morning.
gla

[masurenguy] 29/12/2020 08:54

Could break 100p today, which would be a 21 month high !

[benchmark] 29/12/2020 08:50

Quite a push forward this am, both in share price and in volume too. With new Covid strain(s) emerging, ONT's technology is getting big adoption and exposure. But it is hardly just that?

[p1nkfish] 28/12/2020 12:52

Absolutely.
A few gems in the lucky bag.

Their attention needs to be on not exiting before fuller value outs as they have done at least twice before, leaving too much money on the table.

[bamboo2] 28/12/2020 11:14

Earlier this year ONT CEO Gordon Sanghera suggested a ten fold increase in value in five years.

As I mentioned before this means ONT valuation approximately doubling every year, so a realistic estimate for 31/12/2020 might be £3.4Bn. IPGroups 15% would be worth approx. £500m

Obviously, as bjfanc suggests there could also be a premium that will add to the valuation.

If there is a serious uplift in value I hope that we will get an rns.

It's worth knowing that there are several other co's in the p/f that are due an uplift in valuation because of news, refinancing, or changes in holdings and that there is around £300m cash on the books.

[brucie5] 27/12/2020 21:43

Thanks for clarification.

[bjfanc] 27/12/2020 18:10

In theory, if ONT did a pre ipo deal, with some of the big US listing players. No idea if they have. But once you have these big players on board, with a vested interest. Doors open, to present to a wider number of institutions, so your starting to talk much high multiples.Illumina is +50Bn US Dollar. So a guessing game relative to this and PACB just shy of 5Bn .

[bjfanc] 27/12/2020 17:54

Sorry share of stake, in ONT, so currently valued at circa £250 million. You could put forward an argument for a much higher value, given PACB, has gone through the roof. Roughly x5.But being an unlisted stock, depends on what you can get signed off by the accountants.

[brucie5] 27/12/2020 17:44

bjfanc27 Dec '20 - 13:07 - 751 of 752
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As for valuation you could easily put forward an argument of anywhere between 250 to 750, for the stake depending, how conservative, you want to be.
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bjfanc, sorry, what valuation are you referring to? Share price of IPO, or value in £Ms attributable to its 15% share in ONT?

[full metal alchemist] 27/12/2020 17:10

If you use pacbio's market cap of $4bn as a baseline then nanopore should be worth at least $40bn as it is superior technology with far greater potential markets (namely point of care diagnostics). Sadly we know the markets don't work like that in practice.On another note, I think it shouldn't be underestimated just how badly woodford and link fund solutions have screwed over many of the companies they invested in. I came across this article https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/us-buyer-chalks-up-152m-gain-on-bargain-woodford-deal/a1424846 the other day. Given nanopore doesn't appear to have changed much in value from approx £1.7bn the last few funding rounds (according to IP group accounts), then that article seems to suggest that acacia managed to pick up shares in nanopore from link at a 1/5th of that valuation, or approx £340m market cap. This seems scandalous to me and it's little wonder the valuations here appear to have been depressed if the forced sellers are literally offloading for peanuts.

[bjfanc] 27/12/2020 13:07

All I see is ETFs related to Genomics bulging with cash. With a shortage of high quality established players to invest in.Plus the general need for quality IPOs, to be listed, in a space, thats not decimated by covid. So I'd want ONT listed asap, so the main holding in IP group is closer to cash. Hence providing further comfort to shareholders, that there's an end game.As for valuation you could easily put forward an argument of anywhere between 250 to 750, for the stake depending, how conservative, you want to be.

[bamboo2] 27/12/2020 10:33

Professor Andrew Beggs discusses the results of a study using Oxford Nanopore’s COVID-19 test. [223 views] 21 Dec 2020 [1m 29sec]





In this film, we meet professor Andrew Beggs from the University of Birmingham, who has been working as part of a team to develop a rapid RNA sequencing test for COVID-19.

Andrew tells us about the advantages that genomic sequencing of the virus has over the current testing method, and explains how these new tests could be used in the future to better manage outbreaks by identifying infected individuals early, often before they are symptomatic.
[29 Oct 2020] [4m 29sec]

[bamboo2] 27/12/2020 09:57

bjf, have you looked into the valuations of any of the other co's doing Genome mapping?

Here's a list from 2019



It should be fairly easy to produce a reasonably accurate comparative using these figures, and up to date share prices, or there are probably some more up to date figures out there somewhere.

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It's worth reading a few of the reports on judgements when various competitors have tried taking ONT to court for possible patent infringements. They give an interesting picture of how the different companies have approached the market, the type of hardware, and the costs to customers. It's quite easy to see why some of the bigger US players are worried. Particularly PACB.

[bjfanc] 26/12/2020 16:06

PACB, closest listed competitor up roughly 5 fold. Nice sweet spot for ONT to list, if they so chose.

[bamboo2] 23/12/2020 12:05

Thanks p1nk, ONT was, conspicuously, not lifted in value last year for some reason, so I think we could be in for a significant re-valuation.

[bamboo2] 23/12/2020 09:51

Thanks hashertu, We have moved to a new thread

[p1nkfish] 23/12/2020 09:49

I would hope a conservative 25% minimum, say 100M, to about 325M.
All guesswork. We have no way to know. I hold this as a "lucky bag" type of approach. I'm in the money nicely and await a positive surprise being pulled out of their bag. Not a super scientific aanalysis on my part.

[hashertu] 23/12/2020 09:40

Oxford Nanopore related

hxxps://www.birmingham.ac.uk/news/latest/2020/12/large-study-in-uk-nhs-labs-shows-gold-standard-accuracy-of-covid-19-test.aspx

[bamboo2] 23/12/2020 09:08

p1nk, What kind of uplift in valuation do you think we will see from ONT as at 31/12/2020?

The current 15% is valued at £257m

Sanghera suggested a few months ago its size would increase tenfold in five years.

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edit, back of envelope calcs, if ONT is currently worth £1.7B, and he is suggesting it could be valued at £17B in five years, it will have to approximately double in size every year.

Therefore, next year IPGroup's share could be worth £500m?
Add in the current £300m cash.

That's still not far off the current mcap.

Comments welcome, as I am slightly uncomfortable working with these large figures!

[p1nkfish] 22/12/2020 23:58

Perhaps IPO might have learnt a lesson or two from exiting positions before fuller value shows, avoiding leaving as much money on the table after having taken all the risk.

TBD.

[bamboo2] 22/12/2020 22:58

The results below are not yet peer reviewed, however they seem to offer conclusive proof that Lampore is the equal of the current gold standard PCR test.

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21/12/2020 Diagnostic accuracy of Loop mediated isothermal amplification coupled to Nanopore sequencing (LamPORE) for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection at scale in symptomatic and asymptomatic populations

Abstract

Introduction

Rapid, high throughput diagnostics are a valuable tool, allowing the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in populations, in order to identify and isolate people with asymptomatic and symptomatic infections. Reagent shortages and restricted access to high throughput testing solutions have limited the effectiveness of conventional assays such as reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), particularly throughout the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated the use of LamPORE, where loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is coupled to nanopore sequencing technology, for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in symptomatic and asymptomatic populations.

Methods

In an asymptomatic prospective cohort, for three weeks in September 2020 health care workers across four sites (Birmingham, Southampton, Basingstoke and Manchester) self-swabbed with nasopharyngeal swabs weekly and supplied a saliva specimen daily. These samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA using the Oxford Nanopore LamPORE system and a reference RT-qPCR assay on extracted sample RNA. A second retrospective cohort of 848 patients with influenza like illness from March 2020 – June 2020, were similarly tested from nasopharyngeal swabs.

Results

In the asymptomatic cohort a total of 1200 participants supplied 23,427 samples (3,966 swab, 19,461 saliva) over a three-week period. The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 detection using LamPORE was 0.95%. Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of LamPORE was >99.5% in both swab and saliva asymptomatic samples when compared to the reference RT-qPCR test. In the retrospective symptomatic cohort, the incidence was 13.4% and the sensitivity and specificity were 100%.

Conclusions

LamPORE is a highly accurate methodology for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in both symptomatic and asymptomatic population settings and can be used as an alternative to RT-qPCR.

[bamboo2] 21/12/2020 13:15

Been buying back today. Price has hit 89.5 target. :-)

[masurenguy] 16/12/2020 18:35

Yeah - great close at an 18 month high !

[bamboo2] 16/12/2020 18:07

edward, I'm not sure they are in a hurry, as with a queue of willing funders, the co has no trouble raising finance.

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This evening was highest close since early May 2019

Near term target price remains approx 103

I have bought 50k over recent sessions, but could not get any below 91 ish.

[edwardt] 16/12/2020 16:44

when will it ipo is all i want to know?