Ip Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 20/2/2020 16:57

This has started like an oil tanker. But it may soon become a yacht... if it is to properly reflect not just the NAV but some of the asset gains.

[bamboo2] 20/2/2020 14:39

Overhead gap filled.

Eod close above 77 confirms the Inverse Head and Shoulders, min tp 94.4

ITX also getting into shape. imo

[bamboo2] 20/2/2020 13:07

Nice bit of volume so far today, but I think it will need quite a bit more to beat resistance. 5m+ ?

[pierre oreilly] 20/2/2020 11:45

Charting is based on the premise that if

P = share price
D = day

then PD = f(PDn n=-1..-infinity).

And I'm afraid that premise is demonstrably false.

Still, it keeps plenty of share traders happy. And people who run charting courses!

I see dnl is taking off today, held by ipo.

[brucie5] 20/2/2020 11:00

Far too clever for me.
My mantra is Keeping It Simple, (Stupid)! Never does to overcomplicate.
But glad to see you here too. Slow and steady to £1 and over... by year end.

[bamboo2] 20/2/2020 10:51

Brucie, I leave all relevant trendlines on my charts in order to be able to look back and gauge performance. I stick to certain colours for different types and have added a key under the chart. For example, orange horizontal lines mark historical support and resistance. Hope of some help if interested in charting.

The way I use chart patterns and trendlines is often not appreciated on advfn, as it is not what is known as traditional TA, but I stick to it as it works well for me a lot of the time.

[pierre oreilly] 20/2/2020 09:30

Looks like the Wuhan coronavirus.

[brucie5] 19/2/2020 21:54

Bamboo...wth!????

[bamboo2] 19/2/2020 21:24

Brucie, an eod close above 77.7 would be better. There's a prior gap that formed a resistance zone 77.7-77.3 on 6/6/2019.

This prior breakaway gap down occurred during Woodfords chaotic stock disposal last year.

Near term price target is 80. There are numerous other concurrent patterns with much higher targets, such as a W-bottom and INVH&S. These are very near confirmation.

In addition to the golden cross last week, the share price has now broken above the very long term upper downtrend line. [dark blue]



This is the colour key for different types of trendlines...

Black/Grey/Blue = ordinary trendline.

Magenta = Apex marker. [where upper and lower trendlines converge]

Red = Head and shoulder neckline and tps [55% of the distance between n/l and head]

Green = INV H&S necklines and tps [75% of distance between n/l and head]

Cyan = Bowl/Cup/ Handle rim lines and tps [50% of distance between base and rimline] + flags or pennants

Orange = historical and/or gap based support and resistance levels/zones.

Red Circles = Breakaway, measuring or common/area gaps.

Tps=target prices. N/l=neckline. Hs=Historical support. Hr=Historical resistance.

[brucie5] 19/2/2020 16:43

Just slipped its moorings.... @76.

[pierre oreilly] 19/2/2020 08:46

Anyhow, nano, their biggest or maybe second biggest after cwr these days, is being floated asap, so that will give absolute clarity on its value, plus ipo will have the opportunity to take out real cash in the float process.

[pierre oreilly] 18/2/2020 10:57

It's easy keeping track of the quoted companies, but that fell by the wayside for me. The unquoted are more difficult, and we just have to take their word for it, but it's academic because for the unquoted ones they are illiquid anyhow. The idea is to hold a couple of hundred, a few quoted, and every so often others get a quote, merge, or have actions where ipo can realise some cash from them. It's largely a numbers game, with quite a few extremely high risk ones, most of which will eventually die, but the odd one making it and more than offsetting the many failures.

All in all i (obviously) like the approach. It's giving usually highly qualified academics the chance to commercialise their research (to benefit society as well as themselves) knowing it's odds on it will fail, but hitting the jackpot with those which dont'.

[brucie5] 18/2/2020 10:48

Pierre Oreilly
18 Feb '20 - 10:34 - 80 of 80
0 0 0

I thought you were keeping track of the valuation anyhow?
----------------------------------------------------------
I'm not sure how you can keep track, short of reading what they tell you in their results. NANO, their largest holding is as you know, unquoted. I'm assuming that the NAV is somewhere between 1.2 and 1.5bn, but have little to back that up.

But we're beginning to motor now.

[pierre oreilly] 18/2/2020 10:34

A couple of weeks ago before i bought, i looked at the cash, debt, and the values of their biggest 10 companies, and it was about 3 times the cap of the company at the time. I didn't keep the results so can't remember the details and don't want to just make up a number now. We'll soon get actual numbers in the interims and see for sure (their two biggest holdings have romped away, cwr and the smaller one which isn't quoted but has its valuation from third parties).

I thought you were keeping track of the valuation anyhow?

[brucie5] 18/2/2020 10:23

Where are you seeing NAV?

[pierre oreilly] 18/2/2020 10:16

Most significant is invesco having sold their lot, which I think they now have done. Then the price will climb to something like 80% of nav. I think it's climbing there atm. After that, its just the nav rising which will increase the price further, and whichever way you look at it, the interims will show probably a very decent rise in nav. Not a 5 or 10 bagger (in the forseable future), but a pretty low risk doubler in the short term i would estimate.

[brucie5] 18/2/2020 09:32

75p is significant ceiling. Then 80, 90.

[bamboo2] 13/2/2020 16:50

Pierre/anyone, I have swapped HVO for ORPH in the constituents chart and percentage listing in post 1
I have IPO's ORPH holding currently at 4.9%

Please let me know of any other listed holdings that need adding to this list, either in IP Group or Parkwalks portfolio's, and I will attempt to keep updated. Tia

[pierre oreilly] 13/2/2020 16:11

Good to see it rising with a big (invesco probably) sell in there. Maybe the undervaluation is getting noticed.

Cwr staying high and imv going higher, orph about to take off, the advertising thing seems to have very promising tech but not doing too well, diurinal doing well, looking forward to all the revaluations.

[bamboo2] 13/2/2020 13:04

Good to see price above 50 and 200smas on the day of the Golden cross.

This is very positive from a traditional TA pov.

All we need now is an increase in volume.

[wanobi] 12/2/2020 08:00

great new thread bb2, many thanx for setting it up, cheers Wan :-)

[empoggio] 07/2/2020 19:21

Bruce: your maths is not wrong...and what about Avacta….And yet IPO goes down!

[brucie5] 07/2/2020 16:47

Yes. I saw 65 being hit, but in the end decided to add to my holding in ffwd. Both at possible inflexion points.

CWR added almost 10% today, which on a mcap of 614m and a 14% holding, implies another 9m of value to IPO. (Or is my maths wrong?)

[bamboo2] 07/2/2020 15:33

Added today, as price is near support level.

In the p/f AVCT and Ceres doing well.

[bamboo2] 05/2/2020 08:44

Yesterday's brief interview with Avacta CEO ends promisingly.