Ip Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 04/2/2020 09:32

Tussle between 65 and 75. 75 breakout/resistance, 65 support.
Is what I should have said!

[brucie5] 04/2/2020 08:19

I'm most certainly a holder...looking to accumulate on the retrace. So just trying to judge support. There's a double bottom at 65. But mostly just thinking aloud!

[pierre oreilly] 04/2/2020 08:10

Unless you're a holder, when the chart suggests 4 quid. Chart suggestion is quite flexible!

[brucie5] 04/2/2020 08:06

Chart suggests 65p.

[pierre oreilly] 04/2/2020 08:01

Iirc, they have over 200 companies in their portfolio. Many are revalued rarely. Most won't have a dramatic effect on IPOs asset value with normal variation. It's best imv to see what the top 3 or 5 or 10 holdings by value are doing as obviously a 10% gain there dwarfs any gains or losses in the first stage companies. In addition, it's best to expect a fair amount of losers in the newly formed companies, that's just the nature of seed investment. IPOs top two companies have had massive gains recently, cwr plus 70m iirc, negates lots of 10 or 100k losses.Are you considering investing here?

[guildedge] 03/2/2020 23:43

Circassia recover 50% since 2020. Albeit not listed on IP Group webpage. Looks like they sold out in July 2019. Up 8.5p from where they sold at. Looks like funds have been busy in that share for last few months including Invesco.

Ixico up to 85p now. Sold at almost 42% of that price at 35p. or less.

Actual Experience down to 52.5p. Halved in value since the new year. Down 75% compared to a year ago. I think this will hit them for 6m in 2020 if it stays at this price.

Not much changed in others.

[guildedge] 03/2/2020 17:38

One of the issues here is Woodford has already given many of the existing shareholders 10m+ more shares each. Are the existing holders willing to take on 150m more shares or do Invesco have to find a new buyer? Or are Invesco trickle selling on a rising market? At what price will someone but 40-50m+ shares?

These 1.5m sells seem to be daily now. Had 2 of them recently and a 2.9m sell. Hence the fall in share price

HVIVO has recover 50% since new year. Albeit it was down from 29p last year. Market cap is only 14m. So won't change IP Group that much.

Same for Avacta. This again was much higher in 2019. It's up about 50% since Jan. 24p or so, This was 42p back last Feb. Even so recovering some lost ground.

Both these shares will show few million loses for 2019 and nice gains for 2020. Some of these shares had to recover after losing so much value in 2019.

Agree with below. Nanopore, Ceres and money in bank make up for large share of IP Group worth.

[brucie5] 03/2/2020 14:10

I'd like a few pennies cheaper, please...

[brucie5] 03/2/2020 11:44

Pierre, a factor of two sounds about right, since last attributed value was in region of 1.2-1.3bn against current mcap of c. 700m, since when CWR and Nanopore have both been busy...

And what sort of forward growth do you think we are to expect from these two alone for next 5 years...?

[pierre oreilly] 03/2/2020 11:37

There's no doubt it's undervalued by at least a factor of 2. But the price is a balance of buyers v sellers, and there's a forced seller atm. When invesco stops selling, then the price anomaly will corrected. Best to view is as getting a share on the cheap, but having to wait an unknown number of days or weeks until it returns to its proper value. If invesco had a choice of selling, I doubt they would be. But as funds are withdrawn from them, they have to raise cash to both pay out and maintain liquidity ratios.

[brucie5] 03/2/2020 11:27

Secular reversals can take a while to happen, and IPO seems in no hurry. But if half your mcap is invested in two market leading and increasingly established technologies of the future, (CWR + Nanopore), for which there is global demand, with a further >20% in cash, that leaves, err, 30% of your residual market value in a substantial folio of incubator situations, some of which, like Avacta, are already hatching. It also puts you in prime position to help those others that will survive and grow.

Then, taken together with 40% discount to last estimated value, this might suggest there may be quite a lot of upside for the patient accumulator.

[brucie5] 02/2/2020 17:31

bamboo2
31 Jan '20 - 17:15 - 55 of 56
………;…...…………………………;……̷0;.
Thanks, Bamboo. Isn't it great to see Nanopore up front, if not centre, in efforts to combat coronavirus.

Think I'm right in saying that between them, Nanopore and Ceres represent about half the market value of IPO (c. 265 + 85m = 350m) but with over 20% of that 700m mcap in cash (>140m) ?





-----------------------------------------
200 Oxford Nanopore sequencers have left UK for China, to support rapid, near-sample coronavirus sequencing for outbreak surveillance

Following extensive support of, and collaboration with, public health professionals in China, Oxford Nanopore has shipped an additional 200 MinION sequencers and related consumables to China.

These will be used to support the ongoing surveillance of the current coronavirus outbreak, adding to a large number of the devices already installed in the country.Oxford Nanopore’s sequencing technology has been used in many of the early coronavirus genomes from China, including the first genome published in NEJM and the ‘cluster’; of genomes that indicated human-to-human transmission that were published in the Lancet and the first genomes published from the US.
------------------------

[bamboo2] 31/1/2020 17:53

dexdringle, re post 21
IP Group employs only 87 people but manages to spend £34M per annum on admin ?
On what are they spending £34M ?

=================================

Hope this helps answer your question.

FT lists IPO Group with 167 employees rather than 87.

Additionally, the last accounts includes this statement...

"Included within the Group’s administrative
expenses are costs in respect of a small number
of portfolio companies. Typically, the Group
owns a non-controlling interest in its portfolio
companies however, in certain circumstances,
the Group takes a controlling stake and hence
consolidates the results of a portfolio company
into the Group’s financial statements. The
administrative expenses included in the Group’s
results for such companies primarily comprise
staff costs, R&D and other operating expenses.

[bamboo2] 31/1/2020 17:15

31 Jan 2020

200 Oxford Nanopore sequencers have left UK for China, to support rapid, near-sample coronavirus sequencing for outbreak surveillance

Following extensive support of, and collaboration with, public health professionals in China, Oxford Nanopore has shipped an additional 200 MinION sequencers and related consumables to China.

These will be used to support the ongoing surveillance of the current coronavirus outbreak, adding to a large number of the devices already installed in the country.

Oxford Nanopore is already working to support more than 100 public health laboratories in China, as well as a number of Chinese microbiology laboratories and global public health scientists, with a growing community of scientists taking part in the surveillance process.

“We are privileged to be working with a global scientific community to support their understanding of this outbreak,” said Dr Gordon Sanghera, CEO, Oxford Nanopore. “We hope that the nanopore vision of enabling anyone to access biological information, anywhere, can have a positive impact, and are immensely grateful for the community support as we work to rapidly optimise for this outbreak.”

The MinION sequencer was designed for broad accessibility. It weighs under 100g and is run with a laptop or special accessory, the MinIT, to perform data analysis. It streams sequence data in real time, allowing for rapid sequencing. It is well suited to rapid sequencing in distributed locations. Previously, the device has performed sequencing in rural or remote settings, for example in understanding Ebola, Zika or TB.

“We were able to generate results less than 24 h after receiving an Ebola-positive sample, with the sequencing process taking as little as 15–60 min. We show that real-time genomic surveillance is possible in resource-limited settings and can be established rapidly to monitor outbreaks.” Josh Quick, University of Birmingham, Nature, 2016


Rapid sequencing of the coronavirus has been one essential tool in understanding the outbreak. Sequence information is typically combined with location and time data to provide an insight into how the virus is spreading and whether it is changing.

Oxford Nanopore’s sequencing technology has been used in many of the early coronavirus genomes from China, including the first genome published in NEJM and the ‘cluster’; of genomes that indicated human-to-human transmission that were published in the Lancet and the first genomes published from the US.


Researchers in the scientific community have developed protocols for nanopore sequencing of nCoV; Oxford Nanopore is working with the scientific community in the optimisation of those protocols.

[tel5] 31/1/2020 12:12

This share looking well oversold nav is well over 100p and growth prospects at the companies held look extremely positive.

[pierre oreilly] 31/1/2020 08:14

Guild, obviously companies precommercialisation aren't valued on their past losses. If they were the whole funding for new technology would disappear. CWR are being valued on their future prospects and likely future profits by dcf modelling to give some sort of fundamental value. Atm, the price imv is reflecting the jv partners who want to keep all their technology for themselves (i.e. not even on future profits, but on the proit enhancement cwr would bring to their company, and deprived from their competitors.

ipo have about 60m by my reckoning to add to their nav due to cwr alone recently.

[guildedge] 29/1/2020 17:59

Avacta still rising albeit company is worth circa 43m. IP Group have 17% stake. This was close to 40p in Jan 2019.

Ceres still rising. For a company that turned over 15m and made a loss is a value of 663m now too much? Made a 7m loss last year. Clearly great outlook. The company is nearly worth more than IP Group. It keeps rising.

[bamboo2] 28/1/2020 17:10

Zap! How microwaves and electricity are killing weeds



...Meanwhile, a new device created by the University of Melbourne and spun off into a company called Growave is undergoing trials in Victoria.

Just as a domestic microwave warms food, so the microwaves emitted by the Growave system heat up the water molecules within weeds and cause them to vibrate. This ruptures the cell walls, killing the plant.

Meanwhile, microwaves can also heat the soil, killing weed seeds as they lie.

"Early data is demonstrating that using the Growave technology will be as cost-effective and potentially less expensive than current approaches to weed management," says Paul Barrett, head of physical sciences of investment firm IP Group.

"The Growave approach also has the benefit that it is not influenced by the elements and can be used when it rains, when it's windy or even at night - conditions which are not possible with traditional herbicide-spraying approaches."

[brucie5] 28/1/2020 09:40

Re, Avacta, yes, good RNS this morning. But they will remain cash hungry, and so beholden to IPO (and others), who I can only trust will know how to guard its interest well, in order to see it to full realisation of its value.

[bamboo2] 27/1/2020 16:26

AVCT doing well today.

[pierre oreilly] 27/1/2020 08:30

A down market day is a great day to either buy in or add to holdings imv.

[brucie5] 25/1/2020 22:04

Bamboo, have a tick. I can't understand a single line, but it sure looks impressive!

[guildedge] 25/1/2020 21:51

Two of the buyers here could be Legal and General and Blackrock.FT now shows Legal and General above 3%. Back in August they were under 2%.

FT suggests Blackrock have actually reduced but they certainly wern't on the listings 5-6 months ago. Albeit they are in the FT movers section.

If L and G are buying expect an RNS at some point. We know Woodford sold a lot of his shares across many funds. Hence why we never saw an RNS for his full holdings. Fact the FT has updated their page shows funds are mopping up the shares here.

I wonder if Fidelity may also be a buyer here. Morningstar suggests they have a 6.6m holding. Are all these funds buying to mop up sold stock or buying as they see this going places. There is much more positivity here now. Especially now Woodford is gone.

[bamboo2] 25/1/2020 18:53

SP rising above the 200sma. Macd cross implies momentum to the upside.
Price needs eod close above INVH&S neckline to confirm tp approx. 95
Resistance at 77.3-77.7
Support at 63-63.6

Golden cross imminent, perhaps as soon as February 14 2020
Potential turn 27-28/1/2020

[brucie5] 25/1/2020 10:30

Thanks for the heads up about AVACTA, in which IPO holds 15%. Some savvy investors in there:

IP Group plc – 15.05%
J O Hambro – 9.23%
Baillie Gifford & Co Limited – 8.42%
Lombard Odier Asset Management – 6.18%
Miton Group – 5.68%
Carlton Holdings International – 4.83%
Ruffer – 3.70%
Unicorn Asset Management – 3.41%
Fidelity – 3.25%

The chart seems to be a copy of so many of IPO's holdings: at or rising from a historic bottom, in the case of AVCT, from stratospheric levels, which I imagine must be a function of huge dilutions over the years.