Ip Share Discussion Threads

[guildedge] 22/1/2020 17:35

Invesco are down to 17.45% now. From 18.74%. The price is not falling even with Invesco selling. The large trade yesterday was certainly them. RNS at 17:12pm.

Invesco are selling on a rising share. There must be buyers willing to pay these prices. I doubt Invesco will want to dump the shares at any price here.

[pierre oreilly] 22/1/2020 17:06

Guild, from the rns today and the price increase, ipo hold about £85m in cwr, plus they've just sold £22m quids worth, so are even more stuffed full of cash.

I managed to buy some more ipo today, little and often i reckon. I'm still a bit concerned of the invesco selling situation - that may put a damper on the price recovering to fair value. But when they're done (they don't have to sell the lot of course) ipo will rise to say a 10% discount to nav imv.

[guildedge] 22/1/2020 16:38

CWR up 15% today. 80p above what Bosch paid. IPO up nearly 55-60m on this stock. The H1 results suggested portfolio was worth 1.2bn. So even at these prices there is a big discount on NAV.

[bjfanc] 22/1/2020 14:23

Will be interesting to see, what they do with the circa 50 million cash realised over the past month or so.

[brucie5] 22/1/2020 14:21

We're beginning to rise. I expect this to do so in parallel to rediscovery of value in ffwd. Charts very similar.

But back to IPO. Anyone know about featurespace? Looks extremely promising, but since it appears to be without a public listing, difficult to get a sense of value. Likewise with Istesso, though that seems more or less a highly specialised drug discovery outfit with no sales.

[pierre oreilly] 22/1/2020 07:45

Bosch investment in cwr going to rise to 18%. I think I speculated that the recent rise was a JV uppping their stake, and not pi's buying. Some settled at 320p, but more to be bought in the market aiui. The gain here is more a longer term strategic benefit with the intention and further confirmations of cwr's business by Bosch.

[pierre oreilly] 22/1/2020 00:02

To complete the picture, they also own shares in 119 other companies, worth anther £334m, plus an undisclosed number of startups/first stage/minimum value companies.

One thing we are certain to look forward to (or dread) are plenty of rnss for significant changes in the fortunes of their portfolio companies.

Plenty will fall by the wayside of course, that's just the nature of seed funding, but those which make it can make it (i.e. eventually go onto a market) will be very lucrative.

Reading around their biggest valued holding, Oxford nano, it looks like an ipo was on the cards until the woodford situation, and that would have increased the £274M valuation substantially imv. Guess we've just got to wait several more months for that.

[brucie5] 21/1/2020 21:52

These 20 represented 68% of the company's value as on June 2019. Shown with major holders, including Woodford (WIM)

Company name (sector) Description
Significant named co-investors at 30 June 2019

Oxford Nanopore Technologies Limited (Life Sciences)
Enabling the analysis of any living thing, by any person, in any environment
Amgen, CCB, GIC, Hostplus, Invesco, Lansdowne, WIM

Istesso Limited (Life Sciences) Reprogramming metabolism to treat autoimmune disease Not disclosed

Oxford Sciences Innovation plc (Multi-sector) University of Oxford preferred IP partner under 15-year framework agreement Blue Pool, Fosun Pharma, Invesco, Lansdowne, Redmile, Sequoia, Temasek, Tencent, Willis Towers Watson

Ceres Power Holdings plc (Technology) Cheaper, cleaner power for a changing world Bosch, Lansdowne, Oceanwood, Weichai Power

Featurespace Limited (Technology) Leading predictive analytics company Highland Europe, Insight, Invoke, MissionOG, TTV Capital, Robert Sansom

Garrison Technology Limited (Technology) Anti-malware solutions for enterprise cyber defences BGF, Dawn Capital, NM Capital

First Light Fusion Limited (Technology) Solving fusion with the simplest possible machine OSI

Ultrahaptics Holdings Limited (Technology) Contactless haptic technology “feeling without touching” Cornes, Dolby Ventures, Hostplus, Mayfair Partners

Inivata Limited (Life Sciences) Transforming clinical cancer care with liquid biopsy Cancer Research, CIC, J&J Innovation, RT Partners, WIM

Autifony Therapeutics Limited (Life Sciences) Developing high value, novel medicines to treat serious diseases of the central nervous system Pfizer, SV Health Investors

Wave Optics Limited (Technology) Novel optical waveguides and modules for augmented reality displays Bosch Venture Capital, Gobi Partners, GoerTek Inc., Octopus

Actual Experience plc (Technology) Optimising the human experience of networked applications Allianz, Lombard Odier, M&G, Michael Edge, Queen Mary University of London

Cell Medica Limited (Life Sciences) Engineered CAR-NKT cell therapies for the treatment of cancer Invesco, WIM

Uniformity Labs, Inc. (Technology) Equipment, materials and software for additive manufacturing Not disclosed

Mission Therapeutics Limited (Life Sciences) Targeting deubiquitylating enzymes for the treatment of CNS and mitochondrial disorders Pfizer, Roche, Sofinnova Partners, SR one, WIM

YoYo Wallet Limited (Technology) Mobile payments with integrated loyalty schemes Hard Yaka, LeadX Capital

Crescendo Biologics Limited (Life Sciences) Biologic therapeutics eliciting the immune system against solid tumours Andera Partners, Astellas, EMBL Ventures, Quan Capital, Sofinnova Partners, Takeda

PsiOxus Therapeutics Limited (Life Sciences) Gene and viral therapies for cancer Invesco, Lundbeckfonden, Mercia, SR one, WIM,

Creavo Medical Technologies Limited (Life Sciences) Next generation cardiac diagnostic device platform bringing magnetocardiography to the point of care Puhua Capital, University of Leeds

Diurnal Group plc Novel products for the treatment of rare endocrine disorders Finance Wales, Polar Capital, Oceanwood Capital Management

[guildedge] 21/1/2020 19:13

Why the move to a new group? 31m volume today. If Invesco are selling they are likely selling to new investors. Morningstar site shows a lot of new small holdings.

H1 results showed: Strong liquidity with gross cash and deposits at 30 June 2019 of £161.1m (FY18: £219.0m; HY18: £258.5m;) and net cash of £71.0m (FY18: £121.2m; HY18: £156.0m)

Likely higher given their recent RNS.
'In addition, IP Group announces that cash realisations during 2019 totalled more than £75 million compared to the £30 million achieved in 2018. This excludes the £22 million partial realisation of Oxford Nanopore noted above. As a result, the Group anticipates that gross cash resources at 31 December 2019 will be significantly in excess of the £161 million reported at 30 June 2019.'

CWR was slightly down today. I wonder if there could be some profit taking here or is this the start of something? Can revenue keep climbing 100%? Hmmm.

Guess another holding RNS will happen soon. Take 30m in trades to reach 3% for a new holder. My guess is shares are being shared out among funds. See what happens.

[bamboo2] 21/1/2020 18:00

Nice bit of volume this afternoon. Means we should get another holdings notice or two.

I noticed IKA in the Parkwalk portfolio. Anyone know how much, if any of the Parkwalk holdings are owned by IP Group? [I hate to admit it, but am unsure precisely how the IPO/Parkwalk business relationship actually works.]

Interesting bit of IPO news today, Nigel Brandon, co-founder of Ceres Power holdings plc is also into developing long duration battery storage. His co RFC power has just obtained seed capital from IPO.

[pierre oreilly] 21/1/2020 17:29

Well 20% IS substantially greater than £161m!

The number came from a company expectation of the 19 ye cash.

I suppose we'll find the actually number soon enough. They have had a few fund raisings in their portfolio, and usually ipo realises some capital at such an event.

I'm currently building a holding here - I'll buy on bad days. So personally, the technicsl Invesco salling situation is an opportunity imv - the (forced) selling due to cash withdrawals as someone said, will cause an undervaluation from a fair price, purely from the sells. May have to wait a while, but once invesco is cleared (and they could stop selling at any time, or at the latest when they've sold the lot, and i'm prepared to wait, meanwhile buying more tranches now and again.

I think co2 cleanup c-capture could be a nearterm future float, the one which is a jv with bp and drax iirc, and is currently cleaning up drax.

[brucie5] 20/1/2020 21:54

Three great posts copied in sequence from the last board:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Guildedge
20 Jan '20 - 15:36 - 954 of 960
0 0 0


CWR keeps powering ahead. It's up another 7% today. Market cap now 35m higher. 18.8% holding. 18.8% of 35m is? That is a near 6.58m gain for IPO today!! Worth 1% of IPO value.

If this share keeps rising IPO will be quids in. I can see why IP Group is now 67p. Plus gains on Oxford Nanopore. This could actually be quite a good buy.

IP group is valued at 706m. Of which 264M from Oxford Nanopore. CWR = 104.34m (97.76m from Friday). 368.34m. Meaning you need 350m from the other firms.

A lot of the losses for the other smaller firms has already been taken off the balance sheets here.

I think the reason for the big profit for Autifony Therapeutics is they sold a modulation system to another company which generated them millions. I did think it was strange this company had made 22m profit for that year.

Guildedge
20 Jan '20 - 15:38 - 955 of 960
0 1 0
As for Invesco. We had 42m shares traded that day. Invesco sells were only worth 12.5m Who was the other 28m shares for? I think this could hold at 66p for now. Especially with Ceres Power still rising. Danger is if it suddenly falls back.

Pierre Oreilly
20 Jan '20 - 18:55 - 956 of 960
0 0 0
Guild, in totting up the underlying value in their holdings, don't forget the cash they hold which is 'significantly ahead of £161m'. Not sure of their debt, if any.

The cash is a really big plus. Many/most companies with promising tech simply become fodder for the vulture capitalists when cash holdings get low. (I expect ipo becomes a vulture capitalist in those circunstance too, picking up some companies on the cheap). Any of the companies in ipo's portolios are to some extent protected by ipo if the cash situation arises - ipo has the resources to pump more cash in if it makes sense to do so.

With aim companies and lower, cash really is king - doesn't matter how great the tech, a lack of cash can result in any value and technology transferring from shareholders to vulture capitalists. It's happened to me in the past. ipo's aim and lower companies at least have some protection.

[brucie5] 20/1/2020 21:51

Guildedge, Ranbutan, Pierre, great conversation. Can we continue on Bamboo's new thread, where I want to pick up on some of the points raised?

[rambutan2] 20/1/2020 21:31

Re Invesco. It's suffering big redemptions due to poor performance and at the same time having a (Woodford linked) panic attack about large, illiquid positions and selling these down right across the board. I can imagine an edict from the risk department saying all double digit positions to be reduced to single digit asap.

[bamboo2] 20/1/2020 19:17

New thread now ready.

I can adjust the header as required.
Currently charts and %'s of portfolio co's are in post 1, but can be added to header if required.

[pierre oreilly] 20/1/2020 19:01

btw, i doubt you have to worry about cwr falling back. Something is happening behind the scenes, the mega rise isn't pi driven. There are plenty of jv partners who may want to gobble up cwr, and it looks like that is going on now. The fact that shares are being bought in the market on such an enduring scale indicates that whoever is buying couldn't arrange any block deals with other large holders.

[pierre oreilly] 20/1/2020 18:55

Guild, in totting up the underlying value in their holdings, don't forget the cash they hold which is 'significantly ahead of £161m'. Not sure of their debt, if any.

The cash is a really big plus. Many/most companies with promising tech simply become fodder for the vulture capitalists when cash holdings get low. (I expect ipo becomes a vulture capitalist in those circunstance too, picking up some companies on the cheap). Any of the companies in ipo's portolios are to some extent protected by ipo if the cash situation arises - ipo has the resources to pump more cash in if it makes sense to do so.

With aim companies and lower, cash really is king - doesn't matter how great the tech, a lack of cash can result in any value and technology transferring from shareholders to vulture capitalists. It's happened to me in the past. ipo's aim and lower companies at least have some protection.

Why do invesco have a downer here? It looks pretty good to me. Any ideas?

[guildedge] 20/1/2020 15:38

As for Invesco. We had 42m shares traded that day. Invesco sells were only worth 12.5m Who was the other 28m shares for? I think this could hold at 66p for now. Especially with Ceres Power still rising. Danger is if it suddenly falls back.

[guildedge] 20/1/2020 15:36

My figures show the ones where they have lost 50-90% had mostly already been taken into account. As they suggest above it seems they tried to run before they could walk.

CWR keeps powering ahead. It's up another 7% today. Market cap now 35m higher. 18.8% holding. 18.8% of 35m is? That is a near 6.58m gain for IPO today!! Worth 1% of IPO value.

If this share keeps rising IPO will be quids in. I can see why IP Group is now 67p. Plus gains on Oxford Nanopore. This could actually be quite a good buy.

IP group is valued at 706m. Of which 264M from Oxford Nanopore. CWR = 104.34m (97.76m from Friday). 368.34m. Meaning you need 350m from the other firms.

A lot of the losses for the other smaller firms has already been taken off the balance sheets here.

I think the reason for the big profit for Autifony Therapeutics is they sold a modulation system to another company which generated them millions. I did think it was strange this company had made 22m profit for that year.

[pierre oreilly] 20/1/2020 09:55

Thanks, any idea why invesco are selling? Any technical reasons?

[rambutan2] 20/1/2020 09:43

Woodford cleared a while ago. It’s Invesco who are the seller.

[pierre oreilly] 20/1/2020 09:21

Agreed, seems a great technical position. New to this, but looks to me the price has been hammered by the woodford situation, a forced seller now. (correct me if i'm wrong). Could be more sells, so i'll buy a few any more on bad days. When woodford clears i expect it'll take off to a fair value of its holdings (+40M CWR, +50m nanopore to go in?)

[nw99] 20/1/2020 06:59

Big value to be unwound here

[p1nkfish] 20/1/2020 00:07

That list of acquisitions, sum their market caps. That's what I mean. I'm still here. Alan Aubrey is also Chairman of Proactis, another acquire and build outfit. Time has come for both companies to show what they have built and deliver growth or change the bus drivers.