Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 19/8/2014 10:01

That's exactly right, what they have is visible to all but most can only see the top layer.

It's taken a daft amount of time to understand the business and took me months to get my head around, the aquifer, rights swap deal, discharge permit, and permit application.

They are 3 different aspects, direct supply ability, water rights change of with US fisheries rights, and the application for stand alone water rights for IOF. Neither affects the other legally, or in any other way.

I won't go on, it was similar 'fun' on the iodine.

But post event, I didn't realise the huge acquisition that IOF made. That was the io2 site for virtually sod all v what it's worth. It's worth a packet as a site alone, but that is where IOF picked up the 3rd party extraction agreement patent. If Arysta had been successful on that plant, IOF would be in Montana and that would have been it.

The fact that Arysta life sciences couldn't get an iodine extraction plant to work says it all. IOF have turned that site into a cash cow.

Some brokers even thought io2 was a second hand plant (including Scrut), and still do..... you can only bang your head against the wall so many times.

For the last time the only second hand parts were the buildings and some chemical storage tanks, and those were about a whole year old. IOF built a new plant next to it, and utilised the buildings and storage tanks.

[ansana] 19/8/2014 09:38

SG you wrote
"Production, plants, patents, contracts, and those brine leases all carry a value under the T/O code. Can you imagine trying to value all those contracts and brine leases alone. That's why IOF have been acquiring so many contracts and leases, it affords protection"

Well if IOF goes for 150-200p then each of those valuable leases must work out at less than a 1p each. The point I am trying to make is that there is a mighty big gap between what they have, expectation and possibly a couple of quid per share if the winds in the right direction. Ok that's enough from me, I am out for the day.

[tim3416] 19/8/2014 09:35

Brilliant reminders why we are invested here SuperG!

[superg1] 19/8/2014 09:34

Dont

re



Sg. Very interesting and positive news about the rise in helium market prices. Do we know what plans IOF have for it and are they actively storing it or trying to market it?

I don't like to ignore questions, I wasn't going to answer.

Iof won't produce Helium, they would farm it out.

On the last part, no comment. apols.

[cityboy5] 19/8/2014 09:21

Does our answer re this mornings exit speculation lie in the RNS of 10 April 2014 which said " Lance's appointment as Chairman is effective to the 2015 AGM".....

[ansana] 19/8/2014 09:14

SG you wrote "So to me it seems nailed on that either Japan or SQM will take out IOF, whoever does from IOF comments on resources, will end up controlling the iodine market."

Others have put a price tag of 150-200p on it, is this before or after the bidding war because both Chile and the Japs will know the significance of owning the tech, the leases and patents etc etc. Can either Chile or the Japs afford to lose IOF?

I would just add this is Lance specialism, merger and acquisitions. While we make educated guesses he continues to duck and dive and drive IOF back to health.

[che7win] 19/8/2014 09:10

superg,
excellent assessment.

I have said it numerous times, we can look at the value of IOF as a businses as shareholders which I've done above and given a base price in my own mind, but the intelligent person will look at the value of IOF to others.

You have highlighted that SQM need $665 mill to expand their mines, just think what they could do if they applied that money to IOF leases. They would wipe out competitors at a stroke.

No doubt, IOF are a threat to Chilean miners, including SQM's dominant position.

I will repeat it again, whoever gets IOF in a takeover gets the prize, industry beating margins and competitiveness.

If Japan is wanting a deal with IOF, then if that deal were done, it would be like a poison pill for others wanting to take over IOF, the Jap company would then be in the best position to initiate and follow through in acquiring IOF.

I suspect Lance will engineer the best deal for shareholders, I don't believe the potential IOF has as a business as been demonstrated as yet and I don't wish a takeover at this stage of the game.

Back to lurking...

[che7win] 19/8/2014 08:54

Joe,
more or less my view, it's a steal below 75p.

If we get to the rumoured management target of 1000 MT production next year along with $50+ iodine prices, we can achieve 11p EPS IMHO.

You'd have to be crazy to be happy with a take over any less than 150-200p right now - if you believe the above scenario can happen (I'm assuming fully diluted 150,000,000 shares and no tax).

Surely if we are growing iodine production at a rate of 150% a year, the market will be fit to rate us at a modest 15-20 P/E on the 11p EPS.

I don't know the value of other assets, but to me the oil and gas land we own, the Atlantis water and a flegling water business are additional to the above and I would want to retain those assets if the iodine business was sold.

[dontshoutatonce] 19/8/2014 08:14

Sg. Very interesting and positive news about the rise in helium market prices. Do we know what plans IOF have for it and are they actively storing it or trying to market it?

[joestalin] 19/8/2014 08:10

If you buy high and sell low, you lose money. It seems that some people were manipulated and they panicked.

I will continue to accumulate at less than 75p. There is no long term downside that I can see.

[bocker01] 19/8/2014 08:10

Sefton, it'll be taken over for considerably more than double your 48p by next summer and we'll all feel cheesed off because by then we'll have formed the view that it's is worth more than the take out price and we should have made more. That's life.

[naphar] 19/8/2014 08:10

I can't see iof being purchased for less than a pound a share, no way, look at how the price moves with just low level buying.

At one to two pound a share, maybe, a small chance, but I don't see Lance and Jeff favouring that too much.

My bet is for somewhere over £2 a share in time. Obviously thethe More time and the better the performance in that time, the higher the price. I believe that's what Lance and Jeff will now be working towards. It was said in the past no takeover for less than £6 a share. Lots has changed since then and I don't know if Ey still see that as the goal/ hurdle price to accept a takeover or not. Maybe it has to at least be adjusted a bit for the dilution from loan conversions.

Just my two penneth, NAI

[sefton1] 19/8/2014 08:00

Very interesting view superg1. I bought at 48 last month as a recovery opportunity to double my money. Do you think it will be taken for less than that by next summer

[rogerbridge] 19/8/2014 07:57

I agree in part with Fest. I was looking to IOF to supplement my future retirement which is only a few weeks away.
However, we could have the best of both worlds with selling off the water, oil or helium rights/leases, or even selling the iodine side later.
The parts would be worth more than the whole, so do not worry Fest, I believe that you will more than recoup your losses.

[cyberbub] 19/8/2014 07:53

Festario, if you think you made a mistake selling at 49p then it's by no means too late to buy back at 62p... we've all done it...No advice intended of course

[sandbag] 19/8/2014 07:18

Fest,I 've never been away. Just nothing much to say.

[superg1] 19/8/2014 07:16

Sefton

A bit harsh, things that have been said here by some, about exit points and other actions need to be treated with a very big pinch of salt.

If predicting the market on any share was that easy we would all be happy.

My opinion re 12 months is based on the niche nature of the market and then the size of the few that jostle to have a significant stake in it. Those that actively pursue this sector have MCs up to around $30 billion.

IOF shave completely tied up the US with a patent and it's quite clear their is an enormous amount of commercial iodine rich brine in the US, including some wells that can be picked up as the producing owner as they have been closed in post gas price crash. 19k mt per year IOF say and that's just in Oklahoma. They have 4 other states identified with commercial iodine.
No one else is using their low cost chemical mix. They have most of the top O and G companies signed up. 3000 plus samples, and multiple brine leases.
Having mentioned brine leases, in the likes of Texas simply being signed up with the operator secures all leases. It's only Oklahoma and Montana where brine leases exists.

Oil fracking is on an intense boom and I suspect their acreage will see producing oil wells in time. The deeper zones in their area are virtually unexplored.

Then comes the water permit or permits if they put in for others in Montana of ND. That's timed just when slickwater (large volumes) is becoming a trend in the US and has seen great results in the Bakken. On top of that that have the gas aquifer combined with a discharge permit.

That discharge permit to me seems to be a business all on it's own, low salinity water to be cleaned up and sold by pumping it into a river which feeds the Bakken.

The value of the discharge permit and Atlantis water source should take off, within a few years. It was clearly stated by the old Bakken water guy that rights would be fully appropriated in a few years. That was over a year ago, and the actual use for 2013 was double what he forecast, and now slickwater looks set to significantly increase usage.

Then the next trend, an old trend, has already started for some, waterflooding, which increases the pressure to force out oil.

[phoenixs] 19/8/2014 07:04

superg, would you explain in a little more in detail your post 23843. Why in twelve months or so and how do you think matters may unfold.(potential bidders etc, break up of IOF into different parts, valuations????)

[sefton1] 19/8/2014 02:05

mr big is really loaded while you're a loser with 80000 here at over two quid each

[festario] 19/8/2014 01:11

Less of the 'old' thank you, Mr Big.
...and thanks to my main investment (GVC, and latterly QFI), not poor either.
Although, admittedly not in your exalted financial bracket.

I have quite a few of these still, and I will hold out to see how the story unfolds.
I suppose being a multi millionaire gives you the right to be smug!
I would like to think that I wouldn't be, but I'll never know!

[mister big] 18/8/2014 23:27

Poor old fest ! And all those who kindly handed them over below 50p !
Just a note chaps you don't have to win it back the way you lost it as Buffett says !!

[tackems] 18/8/2014 23:01

My sentiments as well Fest. I was looking at a few years dividend to help my SIPP along...

[festario] 18/8/2014 22:29

That would be sad SuperG,
Sad for those of us who originally invested here for a future of capital growth, dividend income and market dominance.
Now, we are faced with recouping losses and perhaps no more than that.
I hope that prediction of yours changes over the months to come.

If not, perhaps you are already turning to research another share or two.... that we can switch to when the time is right.
Otherwise, these last 3 years might have been wasted. Fingers crossed.