Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 18/8/2014 22:00

Personally I can't see IOF being around in 12 months time now things are starting to slot together. It seems when the proof of concept is in full flow with plenty of expansion left, is the time that interested parties make their move, and not before.

The Chile production lot are now poised to go into their most difficult cost period in their history, with government tax reforms and others reforms pending that are going to turn up the pain levels.

[rogerbridge] 18/8/2014 21:43

IOF & QFI that is some combination.

[bogg1e] 18/8/2014 21:27

Fest, Quadrise will beat asos, iofina wont, but who cares, IOf is still a 20 bagger from here, at least.

[woodpeckers] 18/8/2014 21:23

Come on Fest, you don't want to be kicking yourself next week for having handed even more of your shares over to mr big at a discount!

[festario] 18/8/2014 21:19

.... and right on cue, there are some of the old faces Roger was referring to!
It won't be long before the likes of Sandbag, Skylite and Uriney pop in.

Who knows, even Scrutable might appear, regaling us with 'this is the next ASOS', '£100 a share beckons'.... type posts. If I see that stuff start again, I'm outta here!

[the fat controller] 18/8/2014 21:05

Moi aussi!
TFC

[battery] 18/8/2014 20:48

I could not agree more Roger.!!!

[rogerbridge] 18/8/2014 20:20

I can see with events unfolding IOF will soon be generating a large number of visits to this thread.
IOF is on its way to becoming a very profitable and cash rich company. We are at least 12 months behind on iodine production, but now Lance is about to have all installations purring nicely we will be seen as a growth company, without water, oil and helium priced in.
I do not think It will be too long before some old faces begin to take an interest again.
Conditions for our competitors are becoming tougher as shown by the research above. This should lead to firmer iodine prices going forward.

A lot of folk here have had a very stressful and hard 12 months, look forward to better times ahead.
Thank you to all of the posters here who have presented their findings after many hours of research. I may add that there is no way a fund house or broker could have completed the quality and amount of research carried out here. It would not be cost effective, nor would many have suitably qualified staff capable of doing such in depth research.
Researchers here are more than one step ahead.

[superg1] 18/8/2014 19:51

To get a flavour of the way the Chilean gov intend to go I thought this paragraph about summed it up.

From the lead (Reinaldo Ruiz) on the water changes.

On May 28, Alberto Robles, a government deputy from the Radical Party, said that declaring water a "public good" was a step in the direction of nationalization. And in response to a news query about nationalization, Bachelet's water czar, Reinaldo Ruiz, said "I've never talked about expropriating or nationalizing water, or anything like that. These are rights granted by the state, and the state has every right to ask to be returned. And today, they cannot. We are not expropriating or nationalizing, because we are seeking the return of something that already belongs to the whole nation."

So it seems the reforms are about getting control of rights back.

It's clearly a subject that will cause media mayhem in Chile once the news breaks. I can't find details of the reforms because nothing has been release as yet.

[superg1] 18/8/2014 19:22

Chile Water

Not a lot in the update as you need to be a subscriber, but it gives an idea to show the reforms are coming.


Chile forms special senate water committee

By Business News Americas staff reporter - Thursday, August 14, 2014

The five-member group will start working in September with a visit from the presidential delegate for water resources, Reinaldo Ruiz, who is due to present a package of proposed reform measures

[superg1] 18/8/2014 16:38

Helium

I know some find it boring and it's down the road for IOF if ever.

I assure you it will become a hot topic in the next few years and evidence of that is starting to appear re substantive comments and actions rather than warnings by those in the sector.

This link shows Helium auctions by the US gov where $130 to $180 per mcf were bid.

That compares to $84 to $95 per mcf last year. As you can see in the recent auction it's near doubled.





"Today's auction was successful in achieving a key objective of the HSA," said BLM Amarillo Field Office Manager Robert Jolley, "which is to maximize the value of federal helium through a market-driven process. This, in turn, is expected to incentivize private producers to develop other sources of helium - domestically and internationally - to supply the market when the Federal Helium Reserve is fully drawn down."

Then NASA currently looking for a 5 year supply.



So you can be sure that over the next 5 years helium producers will appear in the US.

The OK Spyglass well had helium in it, but no flow, so that one was a dud.

The Weil 1 well suggested resources of 2 billion cf of Helium, that's 2 million mcf or $260m to $360m worth of helium at those auction prices.

I expect helium prices to see big increase as the federal reserve gets drawn down to closure.

[che7win] 18/8/2014 16:29

I agree SBP,
I suspect there is some slack there.
Also, I expect this years fracking to die down now that the summer is nearly over.

[superg1] 18/8/2014 15:52

Always good to be cautious sbp and I imagine that is exactly what IOF are doing.

I don't consider 1.7 mt per day to be the max production rate of what they just released.

If we go back to io1/2 old news of .8 to .9 per day, with io2 now moving onto much better brine circs and full tilt, they those 2 cover over 1mt no problem, when they are running well.

Engelo

Silly old me, I forgot to mention Macca, he is probably buying now with 1.7mt forecast this month as he said he was buying when the rate hits 1.5 mt per day.

It's in one of his historic posts somewhere.

[meb123] 18/8/2014 15:47

Well I am hoping the 1.7mt figure includes an allowance for slack... but maybe I am wrong

[stupidboypike] 18/8/2014 15:39

Just so we don't set ourselves up for a fall, the RNS states: "1.7 mt/day under normal, or expected, operations" It's not sensible to multiply that by 31 and expect that to be a months production. As we have seen in July other factors happen and not always within IOF's control. However, I am very happy with the trend (both production and share price!).

Best regards SBP

[bogg1e] 18/8/2014 15:34

I think so yes

[meb123] 18/8/2014 15:28

Could be a silly question- the RNS tals about a production rate of 1.7mt per day at the end of Aug . Are weekends included ?

[festario] 18/8/2014 14:39

Not to worry Gad,I only gave him the ones I bought for 140p.The 80k or so, that I bought in the 200's are still tightly held... Ppfftt!

[gadolinium] 18/8/2014 14:27

Fest,
Nice one! I had to smile at that.
As they say, if you can't laugh at yourself, who can you laugh at?

[superg1] 18/8/2014 14:22

engelo

As was spotted towards the end of July someone was, and is still buying. The share price was not behaving the way it should and a decent amount of selling failed to knock it back at 60p which rather underlined the a serious buyer being present and confused the trade folk who no doubt were hoping for mid/low 50's to sell again at 60.

The water hearing complete certainly sparked a bit of interest and the plant brine updates were brilliant of io2, 4 and 6 for the future.

That said there are definitely other things going on.

[engelo] 18/8/2014 13:47

phoenixs: exactly, so that's iodine sorted :-) Still suspect a wild card tho.

[orslega] 18/8/2014 13:34

engelo: good point - forgot about the strategic review (but in the back of my mind I thought LB had already completed that!) Busy September.

[phoenixs] 18/8/2014 13:30

engelo/orslega.
Just trying to keep a mixture of expectation and realism in balance.What I am hoping/expecting is that once IOF reach certain production figures, the market will have regained confidence in bod and will look to future potential earnings.

[engelo] 18/8/2014 13:27

SG: simply overhang gone?