Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[madchick] 05/5/2014 15:53

che - yes, it all depends on what the market's expectation is and I have no clue. But I think anything below 39 MT (which would be required to show IOF already on target for 400 MT in the year, allowing for the underperforming c. 50 MT in first quarter) may be perceived negatively or at least with some lingering doubt. And I'm personally not expecting as much as 39MT (but hope to be wrong!). Hopefully the market isn't expecting full performance yet either, but I am not at all sure about that! Oh well, we will all find out soon enough!

[ammons] 05/5/2014 15:46

IO3 was commissioned on 31 October 2013, 6 full months ago. Since then it seems to have produced little. One wonders how long fracking and bad weather or anything else for that matter will keep it producing so little.

[che7win] 05/5/2014 15:38

Dc,
As I said, your view might be different to mine and I certainly wouldn't rule out your view, but remember 4 and 5 only started 11th April and I expect the usual start up glitches.

Plants 3-6 are affected, 3 and 5 the most some say. 4 is an unknown to me.

If we were anywhere near your figures, I would be scratching my head as that would be three times Q1 rates and at the 40mt level on the poor brines and without 6.
However, I didn't rule it out in my range :-)

Put it this way, above 30-36mt and I would expect a jump in the share price as that is above the markets perception and makes the 400mt level look pessimistic.

[dcgray21] 05/5/2014 15:19

Che - thought 3 and. 5 were affected by the brine issues but 4 was OK. ? On that basis maybe 1.5 mT per day a possibility ...

[che7win] 05/5/2014 15:08

Mad,
That depends on the interpretation of the production figures though, doesn't it?

We produced 47mt over the first quarter which is 15.7mt per month.

So, technically, if we increase on 15.7mt, then we're making quarter on quarter progress.

What to expect? I would think a range of between 26mt to 47mt is realistic, I expect at this stage closer to the lower end.

If io1 and 2 are working at 0.9mt, then 27mt is possible. That would be good and would steady the ship, though there must be some downtime?

What about io3. Maybe it's not running at all, maybe 0.3mt possible? Add another 9mt for it and we would be at 36mt. That would be very impressive, certainly on track to beat 400mt at this stage in my opinion but I think hard to achieve last month.

I would think that anything over 30mt is ambitious at this stage.
In that light, 30-36mt would be seen as extremely good, certainly by me and beating expectations.

Optimistically, could io4 be producing a bit at this stage? Doubtful as it's only ramping up.

30mt would be twice the rate compared to the first quarter, that would do for me.

Others will think differently no doubt.

[woodpeckers] 05/5/2014 14:32

I think any news now will be good. Lance has purposely "kitchen sinked" it IMO so anything further will push us higher.

[madchick] 05/5/2014 13:31

I almost hope for no RNS this week. The last two weeks did my head in. A week's rest and letting the market settle on what it thinks the current share price should be before any more news might help my delicate nerves. Also, maybe in a week there would be more positive progress to report - not absolutely convinced that the April production report will set the market alight anyway.

I could just not watch the daily SP, of course, but that wouldn't really be half as much fun!

[bogg1e] 05/5/2014 11:23

What is also suspicious is that when the ship sank, it took with it various US congressmen who vehemently opposed the federal reserve banking lobby. Soon after the "titanic"s loss these lobbyists finally got their way and the federal reserve banking act was passed.

[beercapafn] 05/5/2014 10:08

Alfie, the cunning part was hidding the decoy, and all the artifacts.

[alfie4048] 05/5/2014 09:16

Don't forget helium Banksy.

Netters.... Did you know that the Titanic never actually sank???

It was part of a massive insurance fraud involving the sister ship Olympic, check it out, it should keep you busy for a couple of days,lol

[superg1] 05/5/2014 09:15

All Lance ever worries about is EPS. It's the same old line for him.

That general strike article.

It relates to the region of Tarapaca. The article clearly states things were not good pre earthquake and have been brewing.

SQM have added related risks this year in their full yearly report.

I did a quick check re Tarapaca to see what iodine producers are in the area, and IF the general strike came about affecting all of them, then how much iodine would that mean going offline.

Sqm Nueve Victoria mine (6000mt, 70% of their production)

ACF Minera guesstimate 2000mt

Cosayach recent comment 3,700mt

SCM Bullmine around 1000mt plus.

So the total for Tarapaca is around 12/13k mt around 40% of world production.

So I will be keeping a very close eye for any other reports for that area.

The SQM mine is in the Southern area, so I had wondered if would be affected, but then recalled this report (below) from mid April. So it would seem the general strike comment in recent days would almost certainly involve SQM. So if the strike does come, for those of that ilk, an SQM short may be in order.


In the mining sector, companies like SQM complaint, the day of the earthquake did not generate the conditions for its workers being moved from site to their homes, and also the day after the fact forced to raise workers to meet their shifts , even moving his staff not entitled to the transfer of workers, also practice by Minera Cosayach roads.

All this was reported to the White Minister during his recent visit to Iquique, noting that all reported cases have in common the lack of judgment, but deepening that this lack is allowed in the case of decrees disaster areas due to that this legislation leaves everything to the discretion of the employer and also empowers, not paying wages, hours extend, terminate the employment relationship citing art. 159 fortuitous event or force majeure, leaving the incomplete defenseless workers. It is for this situation to change and asking for an end to poverty picture in which today are all workers of Tarapaca.

[mister big] 05/5/2014 09:05

Curiously Atlantis has gas, potentially oil, water and is undoubtedly a valuable property - it's value is often over looked as an asset within iofina share price.

[mister big] 05/5/2014 08:51

Lol. You seem to be having a nervous breakdown!
You missed the grassy knoll for a nasty troll !

[orslega] 05/5/2014 08:28

FT snippet yesterday (hurricane's link)

"He and Mr Ploen have already identified $150,000 a month in costs that can be cut without affecting operations. They have also identified the next chief executive, but would rather let him get on with the urgent task of rescuing Iofina without the distraction of dealing with shareholders"

Good PR from Lance Baller. $1.8m annual savings not affecting operations and telling the market that they have a new CEO waiting in the wings but who has already rolled his sleeves up.

[n3tleylucas] 05/5/2014 07:32

AB,

Got it! It's not about I, it's not about gas, it's not about water.
That leaves oil. You guys think this is an oil play? The Shaunavon trend? You wait for a neighbour to strike? By then the IOF stock has either mostly gone to Stena & you via de-list, or you have to suffer this lot? Then a f/o to do seismics & a few wells? lol

You guys are the best, you crack me up... good luck with the cunning plan mate.

[n3tleylucas] 05/5/2014 03:23

So let me get this straight AB;

You personally buy the stock, sell the stock then short the stock then buy the stock... is that the chain of events so far?

Your firm Panacea Finance, which is part of Brightside Group PLC, which you co-founded, which Dr Christopher Fay CBE is Non-Executive Chairman (starting to sound a bit familiar?), invests $5m in here.

So Chris seems to be on the BOD of the 2 firms who have lent $20m here now? STENA International BV & Brightside Group PLC?

Then we have Paul? Another linked here, there... and there.

My my AB, what a web we are weaving eh? No wonder you post less frequently.

You see AB, I like to know who's behind all this, who's really running the show, pulling the strings... and just how far will they go?

One goes, but there's always another, and another... all linked, all pals.

Conflict of interest is an interesting term, don't you think AB?

[n3tleylucas] 05/5/2014 00:21

"this financing is not needed to sustain the current operations of the business"
Always with the post-finals fundings that are "not needed". That's $20m of "not needed" junk now. Gotta make some money, you do know that? Has Stena written this off yet? When do you write it off AB? When does Stena take its $15m junk below your 40p AB? Is this a competition to see who gets the lowest conversion? You lead AB, for now.

[rogerbridge] 04/5/2014 22:41

I do like the comment from Lance about free cash flow. This is the lifeblood of any company.
This, combined with the FT article that savings of $150,000 per month have been identified is very encouraging news.
I am not expecting an April production report rns, but I would like to see one from this month onwards.
The board are obviously very busy and although I welcome regular news but I would prefer the board to concentrate on the job in hand. They have a very large task on their hands and need 100% concentrate on key tasks.

[ramsey11] 04/5/2014 22:00

He won't be there

[dice1950] 04/5/2014 21:18

FT Iofina highlights tech start-ups’ burden

[bobsworth] 04/5/2014 20:28

Free Cash Flow - FCF'

A measure of financial performance calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company is able to generate after laying out the money required to maintain or expand its asset base. Free cash flow is important because it allows a company to pursue opportunities that enhance shareholder value. Without cash, it's tough to develop new products, make acquisitions, pay dividends and reduce debt.

[rock star] 04/5/2014 20:11

I am still struggling to comprehend the degree of mismanagment that took place however the following quote is music to my ears:


"the only things that matter are earnings and free cash flow," says Mr Baller.