Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 02/5/2014 07:56

Che

It sounds all a bit conspiracy like but seen enough of it now on various shares to be highly suspicious of nomads, and of course they have their insti customers to serve.

So pre year end news the rumours were funds holding off hoping for a placing, then posts frack disruption, hands in the air wanting to get involved. At that point when the sky was falling in Numis didn't change anything and had it as a buy.

The problem staff get ousted, and a loan note appears which covers expansion. Iof say they are working with Chesa to sort brine re routing, a matter which is suggested may advance to a decent conclusion short term. No mention of 'we understand' re that, just the issues re frack disruption.

No placing but a loan note 40p. So those funds hanging on that didn't buy pre year end now didn't get their placing. Numis pop up when things look much better and go very conservation, forgetting some 'we understand' points and of course some sell. Nothing changed but they think some will sell so they sell etc.

Next thing we know (not on the bid at the time) an apparent large buyer appears around the 40p point. I watched the action on level 2. Nothing on the bid when there has been everyday making it look dire, then as soon as they sells flew it, an iceberg appeared around the 40p mark (same price as the note). So a fund imo has been filling their boots at 40p ably assisted by Numis.

Just an opinion of course. But I do watch shares and price action very closely, all a learning curve.

The reverse was done on PLE with some stupid numbers quoted.

GMP on the other hand say 65p but that their figure is conservative, one of their main points being opex advantage over Chile that supply 60% of the market. $45 per kg as the upper limit in Chile, my guess would be Bullmine on those prices which means they are losing money.

[naphar] 01/5/2014 21:35

Che
recycling has never been part of the output numbers before as it is part of chemicals not resources.
I will be singularly unimpressed if they achieve the 400mt only because they have changed the goalposts and included the recycling output!

[che7win] 01/5/2014 21:15

Bizarre note from Numis, I can only concur with Superg and others that games are being played.

Two examples of why I think these are underpriced:

1. I expect the water application will be granted.

If we were to get it, 50 cents a barrel, less than 80000 barrels per day, 300 days run time, 50% JV with the other party paying the costs and owning half the business - it's worth at least 25p a share minimum.

Maybe Numis want their clients in before potential 50% upside on water?

2. We could get April monthly figures tomorrow/next week hopefully would show a 30-36MT rate, at least twice the production from quarter 1.

We only need 100MT per quarter to reach our target for this year (assuming we recycle 50mt and recycling is part of the 400MT target).

Io1 and 2 should get to 80 mt per quarter, leaving 4 plants to do 20 mt per quarter.
So plants 3-6 need to do 5 mt each per quarter to meet the target or 1.7 mt per month.

Granted there is downtime, maintenance and fracking, but 60 kgs a day per plant 4-6 is a very low target, leaving plenty of scope to beat expectations.

[crosseyed] 01/5/2014 20:01

diggulden,

Re 20578, did Numis really describe the $5m convertible loan as being from "Pancea Ltd" ? It is of course Panacea Ltd.
If so, it would not be the first time in their brief role as nomad that their grasp of the facts has been lacking.

c

[monts12] 01/5/2014 19:56

Doesn't matter which one it is Robo, the City will always look after their own. This was alluded to by Mr Big himself, remember? A line about lowering prices to help friends...quite refreshing to have read his insights albeit briefly!
Edit MM3, too funny!

[roboben] 01/5/2014 19:39

Can somebody please use their influence to stop this company from changing nomads.

The next lot will undoubtedly be publishing a target share price in single figures!

[bobsworth] 01/5/2014 19:31

mm3 yes! I know Iam too optimistic and its early days for Lance but so far so good after his return

[bobsworth] 01/5/2014 19:22

orslega thanks for reminding me - added that key development

[monkeymagic3] 01/5/2014 19:17

Bob- for balance you should out in at least three negative cataclysmic events that can't possibly happen but are likely.

(1) the BOD announce that in a case of mistaken identity they person they thought they had employed, Lance Baller, is actually a hologram from the future controlled by Simon Cawkwell.

(2) the moon is made of Iodine.

(3) You wake up in the shower only to realise your entire involvement with IOF was just a dream and you are actually married to Bobby Ewing and he is feeling randy.

That should just about cover all bases.

[superg1] 01/5/2014 19:15

Need to redo the header when I have time.

It shouldn't take too long before 'We understand' type events already known by numis but not put in their note, turn into news catching them by surprise and potential upgrades based on that, after the buyer has loaded up of course. GMP's note is mentioned as conservative too 7 x earnings

[madchick] 01/5/2014 19:12

Lance is cured but has a good succession plan in place anyway
We pay back 5 mill loan
The weather is nice
All the above (inc Bobs) happen before end of year

[naphar] 01/5/2014 18:43

SG
can we put bobs list in the header?

[orslega] 01/5/2014 17:23

indeed Bobsworth and not forgetting prilling plans H2....from this level, things could change very quickly...

[the fat controller] 01/5/2014 17:20

and my daily dream about Cindy Crawford comes true!

[bobsworth] 01/5/2014 17:12

Chin up everyone and here's hoping for & more and in no particular order:

With Lance now in charge a line in the sand has been drawn & there are no more set backs
Management are directed to focus on the detail & refresh where necessary
A brine resupply solution is found quickly and announced with time scales
The resupply solution then forms a long term backup plan
Fracking eases sooner rather than later and plants 3 to 6 are awash with brine
The 400mt target is revised upwards or better still smashed quickly
Plant 6 is built and commissioned
Plant 5 connected to electric grid in H2 and put back in service
Plans to install a prilling tower in H2 are agreed
Water rights are finally granted
A JV is announced for water set up and share on sales/profit
Mr B's BIG hint turns into reality
A Mobile or 2 is ordered and put to test on a rich ppm site
Expansion plans are then announced for x mobiles or IOF#7 targeting high ppm sites
New CEO announced
Company finally turns EBITA positive
All Plants are optimised after a critical focus on reducing opex
Iodine prices start to strengthen
Chemical Division expands again as raw iodine output increases
Monthly iodine output data starts to show a rising tend
Our competitors continue to struggle as Iofina starts to thrive
And Shonny finally eats his hat!

[woodpeckers] 01/5/2014 16:58

I originally bought in to Iofina at 88p and as I learnt more about the prospects of the company and the price rose I wished I had bought more at that price. I'm delighted to say that I used today's pullback to bring my average down to 83p and I now have the far larger holding I wanted.
Silver linings! :-)

[wiseacre] 01/5/2014 16:17

I think the shareholder's friend Wantafroth got it right. It's hard to restore credibility. The only way for this share is down.

[uppompeii] 01/5/2014 16:07

Why does everyone think the market is against PI's? Why are the Insti's the bad guys if they "hoover" up your shares? Or short your shares? They hold a lot of my pension money, your pension money, ISA money, savings, our money.

I actually want them to do really really well.

If you invest by yourself there is no responsibility other than to yourself for doing so, its up to you if you leverage, if you put stops in, if you put sell orders in, if you but buy orders in, no point apportioning blame at others.

[orslega] 01/5/2014 15:55

So Numis say 47p, GMP Securities say 65p (but not seen that note) - 50% diff - so that tells you no-one really knows. If you believe Lance Baller can turn this around, this is a screaming buy, imo.

With such low volume (on the face of it) MMs imo will have intentionally grabbed some cheap shares, done their job, client happy. Subject norm. If you're in for the long run make sure think about cancelling your stops - MMs see those and raid the kitty. Goodbye PIs.

So watch out for the buy notifications later,lol This is AIM, nothing unusual.

[awolagain] 01/5/2014 15:55

Nummis strangely had no effect on the price for the last four or five notes which all where buys and always in the £1 + range....the first one to say 'hold' and a price that has a number so low... we then tank...I think not....games as normal here for the last year still been played out!

[bobsworth] 01/5/2014 15:53

Wish numis would stop issuing their notes. With no credibility they are more trouble than they are worth. They are either factually wrong, too high or too low and show they have not got a clue! Time they went too!

[freshvoicem] 01/5/2014 15:48

Dig why did you use the d word, look what's happened!

[diggulden] 01/5/2014 15:31

It might go up, or maybe go down, but it will definately do something!