Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 18/4/2014 13:50

The water has caused the share to drop twice (at least), ironic that if we never had been involved in water we would probably have a stronger and more stable share price. Any drop from here on water would be illogical but it presents an opportunity.

I haven't based my investment decisions on the water, it is a bonus, nor have any of the broker notes based anything on the water. Perhaps the best option is that this goes to a hearing where the odds of success are good.

If we do drop next week, it will be because investors think other investors will sell and the intention will be to buy in cheaper.
A hard game to play.

Glad we have a water result out before the full year results, clears the air.

The water of course is not ruled out at this stage, just a delay again.

Maybe a wee leak yesterday via the water department in Montana, could be a few insiders on the decision as that drop looks suspect...

[1madmarky] 18/4/2014 13:22

The water has to be down to the size. They have requested a massive amount of water. Let's see what our new water man is capable of. My bet is a bit of horse is required. Time will tell. Happy easter everyone.

[bogg1e] 18/4/2014 12:03

dc thanks.

Monty are you sure about £25k per day profit?

Iodine mud sells at about $42 or less per kilo because of the moisture content. Take off $28 per kilo operating costs, thats $14 approx margin, that's about £9 per kilo, 2 tonnes per day = £18,000 gross per day. Now given the BoD stated they expect the plants to be operational about 280 days per year off the top of my head. 280 x £18k = £5 mil for the basic iodine value (before IOC contributes additional value). It also implies about 550 tonnes which is short of the 700 ton minimum 2014 production, but only for 5 plants. IO6 and minis could make up the shortfall.

Note that i dont trust the broker analysis which has opex at $21 per kilo, because costs are fixed but the production rate has not been. Although i do expect the plants to run more smoothly going forward and opex to drop to the $10-15 target.

[phoenixs] 18/4/2014 11:52

lest people forget, Numis have an share price target of 156p based on iodine production and Iofina chemical division only. Water not considered.

[pmw777] 18/4/2014 11:50

Next week it will be interesting to see at what price range Mister Big stands his ground. At the present time he is the only declared large buyer of shares in the marketplace and with potentially a fair few PIs/possibly even a large holder bailing out he will probably set the bottom for the share price as he did a few weeks ago. I am sure people looking for the lowest entry level will be looking very closely for his support buying point.

With the water news hitting after Thursday close at least Mister Big will have four days to get his war chest ready for next week.

have a happy & peaceful Easter everyone

[dcgray21] 18/4/2014 11:11

Bogg1e - if it's any consolation you are not alone but I'm sure in the months to come you'll look on these prices with a different perspective

[monty panesar] 18/4/2014 10:33

TMZ is looking a good investment. In the last results they stated they expect revenues to rise from £20m to £100m by 2017.

[shonny] 18/4/2014 10:29

A lot of straw clutching going on here today. Management shortcomings strike again at IOF. No mention of his bet offer from Mr big today. I wonder why. I can't understand why anybody would have bought at recent levels knowing that poor results are due and the water permit denial was a distinct possibility. Utter madness. I have warned about this share for many months now, but still people throw their money at it. Investing here is financial suicide.

[goofy1] 18/4/2014 10:11

Bogg...after re-reading I stand corrected.

[stupidboypike] 18/4/2014 10:10

thanks for the link Boggle.

[goofy1] 18/4/2014 10:09

'If it is determined that one or more criteria have not been proven and the DNRC is unable to modify the application, the DNRC will prepare a draft preliminary determination to deny. The applicant will have 15 days to contact the DNRC in order to schedule a meeting and offer additional information as to why the application should be granted. If the information provided is adequate, DNRC will create the preliminary determination to grant the application and the application will move to public notice as discussed above. If the information is not deemed adequate, a preliminary determination to deny will stand and the application will move to our Hearings Unit and a show cause hearing will be held if the applicant does not withdraw the application.'

[naphar] 18/4/2014 10:08

Goofy,
Afraid not. We already had the draft PDTD now we have the real PDTD. The next step is hearing. If we fail there, we still have the option to appeal at district Court.

[superg1] 18/4/2014 10:02

From the site

If the preliminary determination is to deny the application, the applicant
may request a hearing to show why the permit or change application
should be approved. A hearing with the applicant will be conducted to
take further information or evidence from the applicant. The applicant
may request a hearing examiner who did not participate in the
preliminary determination.

A final order will be issued after the hearing if the decision is to deny
the application. The applicant may appeal the decision to District
Court.

If, after the hearing on the decision to deny, the department
determines that the application may be granted, the preliminary
determination will be modified and the application will proceed to public
notice.

[tim3416] 18/4/2014 10:02

Well reading the above link, it seems to me that it would have to go to a hearing if the bureau wished to award a lower amount of water which is most probably the case. Just the way the system works. It certainly isn't an outright denial!

[goofy1] 18/4/2014 09:50

S1....there seems to be one stage left before the hearing stage, 15 days to provide answers to any unmet criteria. It could be something small. We are in the dark at this point.

[superg1] 18/4/2014 09:46

The majority have been sitting on hands waiting for results and a hope for lower prices. The big sellers have gone, what's left may be a few Pis wanting out, but then many are poised to top up

A hearing would take 45 days to take place form the request, it seems to me it's all about the size of the permit. If they refuse to give IOF any water at all, then how can the bureau, under the rules ever issue a permit in the area for the same thing, and justify prior approvals, so the hearing will be interesting, the water is legally available.

Was it 12 of the last 15 hearings ended up as permit awarded ?

Not an issue, as said prior to any of this, a buy if negative and a buy if positive, if the market obliges and drops the price. As Mr B explained they certainly will do if the buy orders are there to fill them, and seek to trigger any stops to get them.

It would have been an issue of we were on highs, but we aren't.

[goofy1] 18/4/2014 09:39

Angel, the process seems pretty well defined. We will have to wait and see how many criteria have not been proven and how wide of the mark we are. IOF have 15 days to respond.

[angel of the north] 18/4/2014 09:31

Thanks for that link goofy....
'If it is determined that one or more criteria have not been proven and the DNRC is unable to modify the application, the DNRC will prepare a draft preliminary determination to deny. The applicant will have 15 days to contact the DNRC in order to schedule a meeting and offer additional information as to why the application should be granted. If the information provided is adequate, DNRC will create the preliminary determination to grant the application and the application will move to public notice as discussed above. If the information is not deemed adequate, a preliminary determination to deny will stand and the application will move to our Hearings Unit and a show cause hearing will be held if the applicant does not withdraw the application.'

[uppompeii] 18/4/2014 09:26

Water may have been non core to IOF but it wasn't to this thread! I would argue expectation is ALWAYS priced in, to what degree is dependent upon the liklihood of it happening.
For holders one hopes the market saw it as less likely to happen than this thread did in which case impact may be minor.
If the market has priced in, even to a degree, some of the $ benefit predicted on here there may be a return to much lower levels.

[angel of the north] 18/4/2014 09:24

Don't understand why the 'draft preliminary' was in December 2013 and the 'preliminary' was April 2014. Could be just 'normal procedures'? No objections filed and nothing from IOF. Just 'ripples' with no substance? Does anyone other than IOF really understand?