Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 06/1/2013 17:33

I will add in post numbers for those that have done summaries.

[superg1] 06/1/2013 17:31

jbe in now.

[jbe81] 06/1/2013 09:46

superg you missed my tip, orm, hopefully will be up by at least 50 percent ( hoping for a lot more ) by april ;)

[tara7] 05/1/2013 22:30

RE PTO my share of the year.

I have now updated the header new investors only need to read the one post.

[superg1] 05/1/2013 19:00

2013 list now up. Please let me know if I've misread anything re your share, or missed anyone.

My two picks

FUM

Most of you know it. Innovative gel that gets drugs through the skin. CSD500 the 'viagra condom', was due to launch with durex, but RB who bought SSL fell out with TTK (India) who were meant to be producing it. The end result was a split and FUM now have the products back. That means a new CE mark (some points) needed for CSD500 which is due to be sorted late 2013. Likely to be on sale 2014, but FUM have had a very poor track record on timings.

TPR100
A pain gel that looks like it could be the best topical gel out there. In trials with GSK at the moment and a long awaited result on that. It may translate to a licensing deal, but a long way off market launch.

CSD500
The 'viagra condom', should sell like hot cakes if it ever gets to launch. Drug cleared in the EU, and just the manufacturing process to be sorted. CE mark sorted once, so a formality to achieve the new application due to a new manufacturing site.

Prior deal was high teen royalties (durex). Broker had figured £12m PA from that but on a low market share imo.
FUM now have control re manufacturing so should in theory achieve higher returns and intend to link up with a few partners.
Revenue probably 2014, but they could take up front payments this year perhaps on deals, meaning revenue now.

MED2002

The gel inside CSD (zanifil) but stronger. Suggested to be OTC. The viagra effect, but with go faster stripes, far less side effects. Should be a blockbuster. But imo would knock CSD sales. With FUM and trails to be sorted and hopefully an update re that (finally) in the year end results.

PET500

PE gel licensed with Ansell. Commercial name EPIC. Supposed to launch early 2012, then July 2012, then end 2012 blah, blah blah, evidence of FUM repeated timescale failures. I don't rate this product, it may provide some revenue, but can only launch in the US for now, where other similar products exist.

CRF100, cellulite cream. Fast track trials as it comes under cosmetics. Side effects of dry skin, sent it back into round 2.

CSD500 is the short term interest.


Tomco

Owners of a section of Kerogen in the US. Kerogen can be very shallow and 'mined'. Red leaf resources have an ecoshale system in trials. Ecoshale heats up larges volumes of kerogen, and out comes the oil.
Tomco have a licence deal with Red leaf. Total have invested a large sum into the red leaf project.

The price earlier in the year was pushing towards 2p. Red leaf have a water permit challenge to deal with. Tomco went into reverse and hit near 1p just recently. So on timing and likely solving of the permit issue, red leaf making ecoshale progress, investor interest coming back etc etc, I suspect it will move back up towards the 2p.

Ecoshale not workable and it looks dead to me.

I pick on those 2 as I know plenty about them. If ecoshale works TOM has an advantage, that most investors have missed, I did too. It sets them apart from other kerogen block holders. It's so obvious people overlook it, but would put Tom at the top of any takeover interest.

So while revenues may be way off, takeover interest revolves around Ecoshale.

I'm not in Tom or ever intend to be pre ecoshale results. FUM I will watch like a hawk.

[noli] 05/1/2013 09:17

They know of Kerogen on Tomco SG, i have done many month/yearss of research on that one as i was in it for 5 years. The key is the leases and how deep the shale is in the ground, the shallower the shale the more for the lease if a buyout comes, i.e the Holiday block is around $5 per barrelin the ground and $3 for the deeper shale. Read the DOGM website to get the full picture. Also the Ecoshale has to work but the pilot test has produced kerogen.

[superg1] 04/1/2013 22:50

Oh Well PTO looked at (2013 tip), nightmare thread as trolls have invaded it seems. DYOR research on that one for those that invest

[superg1] 04/1/2013 15:35

I'll have to go for FUM then, since I know it backwards.

It should surely be higher at the end of 2013 than it is now, 30% min imo

If they get their backside into gear with a fast track CE mark on CSD500 then 50%.

If they get some decent deals on the lead product within the next 12 months that have cash up front then higher.

Many of the others I follow have gone, so I'll chuck in TOM too. It's very easy to understand the potential of that one up or down. It has a decent following.

What Red leaf do with their ecoshale is the key, or whether it's all viable v cost against this fracking boom that is flooding the US. The first mental hurdle is if red leaf get the water permit challenge sorted.

If Ecoshale doesn't prove itself, it seems to me Tomco have nothing.

If Ecosahle does work and is viable on costs, then Tom have something that the vast majority of kerogen plays won't have. I must look up whether the BB are aware of the 'ingredient' that would make Tomco a takeover target.

For now I wouldn't invest anything in them, other than to trade the hype, I don't have the time to do that right now.

[ijpax] 04/1/2013 11:00

If not too late may I throw Greka Drilling - GDL into the pot. With their high tech accurate drilling systems and a recent trial contract with CNPC (who have announced plans to drill 1,500 to 2,000 wells in 2013) they are potentially poised to do very well.

[madchick] 04/1/2013 09:46

I'll go for SXX as I think (hope) they will get both planning permission and funding this year and maybe even enter the FTSE for more stability. A great BoD.

Annoyed I missed the stockchallenge competition this year - was travelling to the UK and back and totally forgot to enter it before I left and I'd spent hours trying to decide my last two picks.

[superg1] 04/1/2013 09:22

Never too late.

I'm just pondering on what to choose. I'd prefer to go with what I think carries less risk long term, but there is one or two that could re-rate based on PI hype and potential.

I suppose the answer lie's in which shares one would be confortable in a decent purchase rather than a punt. Tomco seems to have a big following and has had a long fall due to a partner water permit issue, which should prove to be a false concern.

However the partners tech could take a while to be proven up, thus the hype on that should take the price up this year.

I mention that one as I understand it fully, and by good fortune have realised why Tomco carries attraction compared to others with Kerogen shales.

Mind you if red leafs tech doesn't prove itself up, it's a dead duck.

That doesn't fit my 'looming profits' ideal situation either.

[supreme mo] 04/1/2013 07:53

Hi s g. if not too late could you put me down for tandem group (tnd) please - this wont set the world alight and i honestly dont think it will br no 1 on the list but has plenty of nav and is one of few aim cos which are psying divi. will explain reasons later for this micro cap.... not one for the trade as big spread and co rarely issues news... the company has made several buybacks with excess cash - all higher than today's price might I add. (not a current holder as all in iof).

[battery] 03/1/2013 22:28

SG,

If not too late for your comp, can you put me down for CEO, Coastal Energy. have made a decent amount on this over the last 12 months and the future for 2013 is looking pretty rosey I believe. They have an uncanny knack of drilling new wells in the right place and have just added a 2nd rig to speed up the drilling regime. Current price is around $18 CAN equivalent and the brokers are all upping thier estimates into the $30 CAN range.

And, as an added bonus. being dual listed on LSE AIM and Toronto they are exempt from stamp duty so dealing costs are very low.

EDIT - they are also very highly rated by a certain Robbie Burns though I only found this out after I bought my first batch.

[battery] 03/1/2013 22:22

True.

Also, depending on the stock, the stamp duty is different. Eg. On dual listed on the Irish SE the stamp duty is 1% not 0.5% but a dual listing on Toronto then the stamp is zero. That can add up to a significant amount saved.

[microcline] 03/1/2013 16:00

Some AIM stocks can be put in an ISA if also listed on another exchange say Australia.

[peartreegardens] 03/1/2013 15:18

Thanks pnetol

[pnetol] 02/1/2013 22:30

Re ErosPeartreegardens sadly you cannot put them in an ISA as they are an AIM stock, I hold mine in a spread bet with IG Index as they will still hold them when they eventually realist on the NYSE. If you were considering buying then I would strongly recommend that you make sure that whoever u use to buy them will allow you to hold them when they re-list as I think that most of the relating will occur after they move to the NYSE Hope this help.Best regards.

[peartreegardens] 02/1/2013 21:38

pnetolwill EROS go in an ISA? tia

[nick2008] 02/1/2013 21:26

Superg1 regarding your post 137, I got some time off ATUK in Xmas holidays and read like a zillion threads here. Always knew about this one though didn't post ever. With so many competitions going on, I posted on few of them including here. I would like you to add ATUK and SDI in 2013 competition :-)

With SDI, it's still early days for my research though like what I'm finding about them....

Nick

[diggulden] 02/1/2013 20:20

KBC is my tip if not too late to enter. Not going to touch IOF in terms of rewards, but good for a 50% return over the next 12 months in my opinion.

[superg1] 02/1/2013 14:49

Bob IOF will be in the list but under LB's choice lol.

Fredie I've been p was the base behind the scenes for a while, BUT it's had an unusually long lack of updates and a price drift, so I'm on the fence as to whether the bounce is genuine.

I love what they have, but such are the times of cutbacks, I wonder when the interest will take. The expense equates to savings. Coincidentally a big market is the Chile mining trucks, but the costs are soaring there so I'm in wait and see mode.

I think the tech in the future will be in all cars.

[freddievas] 02/1/2013 14:43

TRT off with a flying start!

[bobsworth] 02/1/2013 14:17

Superg1
Who ever wins the 2013 share tip comp, I bet iofina does better still!

[pnetol] 02/1/2013 14:10

As this is a bit of fun I am going to opt for two companies with an Indian theme,EROS and Cyan. Firstly Cyan's prospects hinge on the TNEB tender in India being successful, market cap is under £20m,if successful then they could go well. I have given a quick summary from their latest half yearly results.


Cyan Holdings Plc

28 September 2012

Cyan Holdings Plc

("Cyan" or "the Company")

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2012

Cyan Holdings Plc (AIM:CYAN.L), the integrated system and software design company delivering mesh based flexible wireless solutions for M2M utility metering and lighting control announces its Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2012.

Highlights
-- Turnover of GBP192,923 (H1 2011: GBP220,277)
-- Successful fund raising of circa GBP1.9 million (net of expenses)
-- Appointment of John Cronin as Executive Chairman at the 2012 AGM
-- Significant position achieved in "potentially transformational" TNEB tender in India
-- Largest order in Company's history (over US$1M) for CyLec(R) products in India
-- Partnership with major Indian electrical and utilities supplier Larson and Toubro Limited ("L&T")

John Cronin, Executive Chairman, commented:

"Whilst shareholders will no doubt be somewhat disappointed with the H1 2012 revenue numbers, I want to confirm that we continue to take significant strides forwards towards achieving our aim of being the recognised leading provider of smart energy solutions for the utility and lighting sectors in emerging markets. During the first half of 2012, we have won orders in India and China and have strategic partnerships with major manufacturers in both territories. We are very well positioned in the TNEB tender, which is now approaching its final stages, and represents a potentially transformational turning point for the Company in terms of revenues and financial stability.



EROS is probably much better known by all. They have had a very torrid 12 months. When a proposed NYSE float was delayed it fell from a high of £3.15 to a low of £1.76, they have since recovered to £2.33 to buy. They recently concluded a deal with HBO for two premium channels in India, the first without advests. HBO has a fantastic reputation and two of the brokers following the stock have lifted their price targets respectively to 393p for Investec's

Investec - Price: 234p | Target: 393p | Rec: Buy
HBO film channel collaboration suggests material long term value accretion, not only given financial upside, but also the link with a blue chip international player, HBO/Warner. Subject to execution, our analysis suggests good share price upside, with even our most pessimistic scenario implying c. 50p value accretion and our positive scenario suggesting over 200p. Our PT rises to 393p (300p) based on our mid-range scenario. Key risks are execution, launch costs and cannibalising existing TV sales.
• Potentially game changing long term collaboration with HBO Asia to launch two new premium film channels in India utilising Eros films and content from HBO, Warner and Paramount. This is the first non-advertising funded film channel in India, so should be taken very well in our view.
• The HBO/Warner link looks materially accretive to the Eros investment case financially. It could also lead to further joint initiatives and should be a positive affirmation for potential new shareholders if Eros makes its move to the NYSE.
• The launch leverages rapid growth in India pay TV as DTH penetration increases and government drives cable migration from (pirated) analogue to more secure digital. This implies premium film content can now be monetised more effectively by pay TV operators - Eros/HBO are well placed.
• Forecasts unchanged for now, though new channel launch/TV sales attrition could imply some FY14E launch costs ahead of material premium sub take-up.
• Our analysis suggests value enhancement subject to execution - we believe HBO Asia premium channel penetration is c. 25% in other markets. Our DCF scenario analysis is driven by pay TV penetration assumptions (WACC 15%).
• Our pessimistic scenario implies pay TV penetration of just 2.2% by FY17E and suggests value accretion of c. 40p. Our mid-range assumption assumes 4% penetration and implies 93p value, while our positive assumption assumes 7.4% penetration and implies value of 196p.

Peel Hunt has also upped their target to 352p - no write up on that I am afraid.


Both of these upgrades are irrespective of the potential NYSE float.


I think that the float will go-ahead in the first half of this year and that may lead to a price near Investec's 393p. THe key point if you look to buy EROS is to make sure you buy them in an account that allows you to hold overseas stocks as if the float goes ahead it is likely to lead to a re-rating post US move.


Good luck to all and a very happy New Year.

[rogerbridge] 02/1/2013 08:51

SG, yes a loss is on the cards, but OCG raised £30 million (overscubscribed) in December as the business is just taking off as the technology is now accepted. Nowhere near as good as IOF, but then, what is!