Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[captain_kurt] 27/1/2014 07:39

With the roadshows starting early Feb, I expect the company to update the
market on plant progress and we have GMP to issue their note.
Hopefully starting this week.

[superg1] 27/1/2014 07:36

On another point in that note.

There were whispers that some of the original US iodine producers, were struggling re their resource source after a few decades of extraction.

Numis comment that Woodward are trucking brine. Previously they had run their own wells, and now need trucked in third party brine.

That will be more expensive than using their own local brine, third party royalties kick in, and that will be higher than the deals that those original operators screwed over the locals on.

Such plants are also limited on how much they can produce due to the harsh chemicals used/emission issues.

The rumour a while back was that their resource was depleting, the rumour now is they are struggling overall.

[flying pig] 27/1/2014 07:32

Brokers notes are usually checked by the Company, who are asked if they contain anything unreasonable. IOF have failed to review the original note. Black mark for both the broker and IOF.

I hope that the presentations do not mark a further fund raising at a depressed price; long term holders know that we should be trading at 50% or more higher price. I do not want dilution to enrich third parties - I want my fair share!

[neilgw] 26/1/2014 23:11

Thanks for the updated Numis note synopsis Orslega

Very helpful

[rogerbridge] 26/1/2014 22:56

SG,orslega, pigeon and others,many thanks for your valued contributions.
This has been a bad week for a Investors in IOF, due to a botched broker note.
I know of one friend who sold and is now looking to get back in and he is not a happy man and I dare say there are more like him.
I am feeling more relaxed this evening, the reworked figures could have been higher, the water may take a few weeks longer but we are on the right track.

Another few months with increased production should see the share price far higher than where we are today.

The market in General is weak at present so there may be a top up opportunity for the bold.

[rogerbridge] 26/1/2014 22:56

SG,orslega, pigeon and others,many thanks for your valued contributions.
This has been a bad week for a Investors in IOF, due to a botched broker note.
I know of one friend who sold and is now looking to get back in and he is not a happy man and I dare say there are more like him.
I am feeling more relaxed this evening, the reworked figures could have been higher, the water may take a few weeks longer but we are on the right track.

Another few months with increased production should see the share price far higher than where we are today.

The market in General is weak at present so there may be a top up opportunity for the bold.

[hurricane.] 26/1/2014 22:27

6 plants purring like kittens. It's called the bank of Iofina.

Keep watching

[n3tleylucas] 26/1/2014 22:23

The stink of desperation is palpable. So many posters worried about a poxy little broker note that basically says £6m clean earnings FY 2014.

You are valued @ £105m.

You have to repay £10m in the same month your 2014 results are announced.

How on earth can you do that without a placing?

[freshvoicem] 26/1/2014 22:14

I just hope they (I.e. The company) check the GMP note VERY CAREFULLY. Before it comes out.

[naphar] 26/1/2014 22:09

Bobsworth
not that I can remember. I don't have it handy now.

[bobsworth] 26/1/2014 21:56

naphar
12-30 included in their valuation! That's good to hear.
Did they indicate what MT we can expect from 12-30 plants?
Sorry to ask but I do not have access to their report.

[meadow2] 26/1/2014 21:35

Thanks for the comments, but surely Iofina are building up stocks and spending money, no signs of greater sales than last year, so far!

[naphar] 26/1/2014 21:27

Bobsworth

They have plants 12-30 included in their valuation.
what they said, if I understood it right, was they did not believe the market is current factoring in anything past plant 12

[dcgray21] 26/1/2014 20:52

Engelo / SG1

Many thanks for taking the time out to reply to my query . Much appreciated .

[bobsworth] 26/1/2014 20:46

Thanks orslega for that update

So the revised Operating profits are based on:-

Only 3 extra plants added per year after the initial 6 in 2013/14
No new plants after 2016
No rollout of mobiles plants
No Prilling towers but acknowledge one could add 35-45p to share price
No water sales
No significant growth in Iodine derivatives
And an extra $1m of admin costs

Although these revised operating profits are welcome, with more than 3 plants a year likely + plant rollout beyond 2016 + rollout of mobiles and significant growth in iodine derivatives (e.g. move to 2 shaft/day + acquisitions) this remains a very conservative Buy recommendation and 156p/share target price from Numis.

[monty panesar] 26/1/2014 20:45

Just thinking about things another way. At the 30t per month they appear to have produced in H2 2103 that works out at $1.35m of Iodine per month produced at a >50% profit margin even before it goes through Iofina Chemicals to be value added. Obviously we know a big order has been delayed into this quarter.

Once IO4&5 come on line they should have production of around 60t per month which equates to $2.7m or a gross profit in excess of $1m per month.

It shows how cash generative even at reduced production rates.

Just thinking about it even more there can't of been much surplus iodine produced last year that didn't go into the Chemical's business.

[roboben] 26/1/2014 20:01

Meadow2 - Well, according to Numis, as quoted by Orslega, above.

"Operating profit revised note 2014 $10.6m"

I don't see any problem meeting those interest charges out of that, do you?

Furthermore, I do see even their revised figures as both puzzling and very conservative. (That's being kind!)

[bocker01] 26/1/2014 19:51

Cash is not a problem and the interest bill covered multiple times .

[monty panesar] 26/1/2014 19:51

The profits from the established Chemicals business would cover that a few times over Meadow. I read somewhere IOfina Chemicals sales are heavily orientated to this time of year.

[phsycho] 26/1/2014 19:50

thanks Orslega for that clarification, plus SG and all other informative posters. Appreciate your efforts.

[meadow2] 26/1/2014 19:40

I'm beginning to wonder when IOF will regularly become cash flow positive? There is now a bond interest charge of $975,000 per annum to pay so things are deteriorating on the cash flow front if sales are not growing as they should!

[pcjoe] 26/1/2014 19:23

What roadshows & where?

[orslega] 26/1/2014 19:04

swiftnick - to be honest there are too many anomalies to go into further detail, even more so in the revised note. Pinch of salt springs to mind.

[swiftnick] 26/1/2014 18:56

Thanks Orslega.

Can you elaborate on what they say about the cash position? How much headroom do they have to fund the capex and additional working capital requirements arising from the growth of the business (due to the build up of stock and debtors)?