Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 23/1/2014 13:40

superg,
if the note is wrong to the downside, it needs to be updated....fast.

[superg1] 23/1/2014 13:32

Scrut

You seriously believe that

'This is all confirmation of my post 4024 that GDL is now well on the way to a rise in revenue to a minimum $170m-185m for 2014, compared with $61m in 2012 and less in 2013.'


Just to clarify 'less in 2013' is looking like it will be over $30 mill less.

Wasn't there a promise of lot's of wells to be drilled for last year. So you know as on the last spike there is a big profit/revenue warning coming with probably less than half of what they earned in 2012.

You know what the market does with that.

Don't go on about GDG, they are trying to claim back cash from the Chinese illegally on their leases. I hope they succeed, they haven't stopped.

What does one expect from Chinese companies in their own back yard. 'oooooops sorry, our mistake, sold old chaps, here's a big fat cheque with a bit on top as an apology"

[jackster193] 23/1/2014 13:11

Neddo...Sounds like a good idea, I've bought some more this morning :)

[neddo] 23/1/2014 12:58

had national grid divi this morning, lubbly jubbly, what should I do with it netley , invest it here?

[superg1] 23/1/2014 12:58

Boggle

And that's why some long in the tooth folk, trash any comment or suggestion about investment in the AIM , it's high risk.

As stated in many investment guidance articles, it should be seen as a 5 year minimum term investment.

Lots of reaction to yesterdays note, but a few crunching the numbers now, some seem to think they have made an error, if right, not a great start.

[worraps] 23/1/2014 12:42

.....talking of presentations....aren't they around the UK this week doing some? Or have I got that wrong?

[worraps] 23/1/2014 12:40

I'm actually glad that I didn't attend the presentations....otherwise I would have been given a false impression of progress like so many others, it seems, and which was also reported on here.

The water permit 'certainty' information came originally from the presentation.
The excitement about progress came from the presentations.
The blind belief in what the company can achieve came from the presentations.

It therefore evolved that the presentations caused more harm than good.

But, we are where we are. And if IOF can truely regain their credibility from hereonin, with all six plants operational by the end of this quarter, then 90p is a good price to buy at now.

But heaven help us if they fail to live up to their word again.

[superg1] 23/1/2014 12:03

Worraps

Did you attend presentations?

The BOD said 99% certain on the permit.

They said 100k bpd in Montana and 100k bpd in ND. That became 200k bpd in each 10k acre feet application. ND application to follow in short order.

Even in the Numis note they are using $1 to $2 for cold water and $3 to $5 for hot.

Iof then said 3 depots in ND splitting the application in 3. total just over 200k bpd.

$73 mill per year at $1 pb if they sold it all, then double up for ND. Make the number quite a bit bigger for hot water.

Hot water back then was said to be $5 plus, but heating tech would do the job for a little over $2. pb

Opex for cold water said to be 20 cents.

Take the mid figure in the Numis note for cold and it's $110m per year for those 3 supposed depots, with $88 mill as gross profit.

From just the 3 Montana depots it ends up around £35 mill profit tax deducted at 35%. No hot water included and only half the depot potential mentioned.

So nothing wrong with the potential based on what IOF said, but that line was always there 'assuming delivery'.

The first water depot was supposed to be in during the spring of 2012 going on news.

FUMs CSD500 condom was supposed to be launched in 2006 as declared in news, it should now do so 8 years late.

Sirocco/Atacama minerals, were meant to be on 1600mt 10 years ago.

Things slip, quite clearly for many companies.

[superg1] 23/1/2014 11:44

Warren

Morals about shorting a high risk AIM and trashing a thread to support the bet, is what I'm on about.

If someone makes a bet the Vodaphone, gold or FTSE falls, then that's the market.

Shorters are well known to target AIM shares that do well. The fact is for good prospects get ahead on the price with the business and revenue waiting to catch up.

If that wasn't the case, then no start up on where could make progress, without investors willing to stump up cash to operate the business.

Shorting imo overall is very good for the market. If it wasn't there then it would be just a one way ticket to ridiculous price levels for many AIM shares.

Isn't that what happened in the boom. Shares with nothing at all, not even a proven product ended up with a billion plus MC on hype.

Those were the nuts days.

I followed PDX from 50p to 750p and was completely confused as to what sent the price that high ( It fell off a cliff in the end)

There are one or two now that I just look at and think 'No way' due to daft prices.

So shorts are good, but the way some go about it, isn't so good.

[worraps] 23/1/2014 11:41

superg

For someone who was at one time predicting a shareprice of 700p by December 2013, your hypocrisy is breathtaking. Many others were predicting a shareprice of 300p by July 2013, and even as we were approaching the end of the year, others were still predicting 200p by the end of the year.

You also predicted that the water permit was a certainty.

I am no fan of trolls or derampers, but really........who got the price right?

I am still hanging on here, because financially I have no real choice. Like so many, I am still 50% or so down.

I have noticed that the long, long, posts have returned. It seems that hot water is now the latest fad?

Still no humility to be seen it seems.

[molybdenum] 23/1/2014 11:27

Innocent boy question: didn't the world price of iodine halve? Might this have something to do with Numis' new revenue estimates?

Less innocent question: I see that quite a few posters place weight on an imminent planning decision concerning water in Montana. The way planning considerations work is it not entirely possible that IOF will not get it this time round either, but will have to make further modifications? I get the impression that's in the price - certainly this morning's price.

I'm in in a small way at 84p since December, and if the price slumps to that level again I will buy some more. A target of 156p seems very satisfactory to me.

[warrensearle] 23/1/2014 11:08

SG bit of a turnaround you have been Very vocal about your morals around shorting previously calling it immoral and something you could never do - today you seem to have dramatically changed your moral compass with an admission to actually having shorted two stocks - have you finally come round to the logical view that shorting can be a valid part of any portfolio and act as a good hedge against other long investments ?

[killerbudgie] 23/1/2014 11:01

I think the trolls spend all day between ADVFN and Twitter.

[nixonpaul] 23/1/2014 10:42

No, he doesn't.
He goes around the boards where price is dropping and posts the same old comments, e.g. "this is going down to x price and so on without a shred of backup.
The guy is so low you'd have to get down on your knees just to p*ss on him.

[freshvoice] 23/1/2014 10:28

Shonny
Do you ever post anything positive about any share. Filtered

[knackers] 23/1/2014 10:08

Che - yup, same here. Too cheap at these prices, great 2014 hold IMHO.

GLA

[shonny] 23/1/2014 10:07

As predicted last night the dive continues. Didn't some silly ramper predict £3 by year end yesterday. What a plonker.

[microcline] 23/1/2014 10:05

Could the 19 people who have voted up post 14951 and N3 please post the relevant facts and references to how you come by your "beliefs". Genuinely interested in perusing your evidence.

[che7win] 23/1/2014 09:20

I'm buying this morning, nice price.

[n3tleylucas] 23/1/2014 09:19

Well I stand by my belief that the BOD have mislead the market on several occasions. And I have proof that IOF has emailed sensitive info to posters prior to releasing the news via RNS.

I also believe that Investec were given false information. However I do believe Investec were culpable too for refusing to lower the share price target in spite of slashing profits.

Certain posters have been privileged to sensitive information before the market, over-and-above normal digging.

It's a shoddy affair, people have been mislead and have lost money.

This stock has become uninvestable.