Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 02/1/2014 15:46

Scrutable,
a decent post, but I look no more than 12-18 months in advance.

Right now we are on a P/E of 10 for this year which is laughable for a 'growth' stock.

With 3 plants well on the way to completion in the next few months, that doubles are iodine plants (more if IO#1 is treated as a test plant). We are expected to triple our no. of plants by year end supplemented by additional mobile units.

With this measured growth, I don't think the company are taking too many risks, they are managing the growth in a better an more logical way compared to last year.

I would expect a P/E of 15 (150p) is possible in 6 months time if we roll out on time, with the possibility of 150-200p by year end, it all depends on how the roll out goes.

Realistic expectations to me, 100p is much too low with near term roll out but it gives others a good opportunity to get aboard I guess.

IMHO.

[scrutable] 02/1/2014 15:30

9 darter

my experience with Meldex led me to toughen my conditions for share holding. The first was to seek out sources of risk reduction, and the most obvious was NEVER EVER invest in a company that has no income. That unbelievably leaves only 1300 shares to consider. I go further and eliminate those with income less than £3m which leaves only 982 and further eliminate all tiddlers of Cap below £10m leaving 852 in consideration.

There are plenty of other filters to apply which will each reduce your risk.
At a crude guess my small portfolio has changed my risk from 30:70 against
to one of 80:20 in favour. I am no longer risking a second Meldex.

IOF is the very opposite. Subject only to a second Black Swan event like being struck twice by lightning, I suggest that from the whole LSE it has the highest probability in favour of quadrupling its share price before end 2015, particularly at the current price. By the next AGM mid June we will know much more, have even greater certainty, and will I am confident already be back at close to its previous high. That of course is only my opinion but I would be surprised if many others had not already reached the same .

[boo 2 goose] 02/1/2014 15:19

Same as last Year IOF ramp it to death right to 50p LoL

[ansana] 02/1/2014 14:56

I dont want to wonder about the water. Iofinas main business is Iodine not water. Should we get the water that will be awesome as the Americans like to say, if we dont they will be cracking on with the core business as they are doing now, day by day. By the end of January we will be close to the completion/commissioning of IO4 and 5, and thats a game changer. Lets wait and see what happens. If the meeting is on the 30th then I am happy with that. They know what the issues are and have plenty of time to address them. I am NOT being negative in the slightest just pragmatic when I say that we are not at the end of the road by a long way if needs be it could go to a hearing for no better reason than the size of the application and Politics will be in there somewhere.

[bobbyshilling] 02/1/2014 14:44

naphar, according to the 9th Oct rns, the application was deemed complete and correct on 30th Sept, and there are 120 days max until final determination. In the same rns we were told the application had moved to final determination phase. If 30th Jan is not exactly on the wire, it is pretty close to it.

[naphar] 02/1/2014 14:36

bobby, why is 30th jan "right to the wire time wise"
I am not aware of time limits for having the meeting, other than the 15 days they were given to arange it. Do you have further insights?

[gadolinium] 02/1/2014 14:35

Hurricane/Capt Kirk
Just for interest, 14 million tablets of potassium iodide at 65 mg/tablet is equivalent to 910 kg of potassium iodide which will contain 695.7 kg of elemental iodine. A useful order for someone! Presumably if it were Iofina, they would just supply the pharmaceutical grade potassium iodide to another manufacturer who was equipped to do the tableting and blister packaging or whatever of the final product.

[bobbyshilling] 02/1/2014 14:23

I am wondering why IOF have gone right to the wire time wise, 30th Jan, to hold their meeting re: water permit application. I know it gives the company extra time to make sure things are correct, but then again is there more to it than just a little tweak required here and there. I can't really see that this was the first available date, but I suppose they are allowing plenty of time for letters back and forth, but we do live in an age of electronic communication. Any thoughts?

[superg1] 02/1/2014 14:22

It's amazing really how the actual import/export data contradicts the picture trying to be painted.

Other such points they mention $10.2m profit for Algorta from the higher priced H1 period. Forecast 3000mt this year.

If that's true, and we assume double for H2 at $50 per kg average for the year, that's 13.6% profit. That is not a lot of profit per unit produced, so it gives some idea of the high opex costs for them.

[superg1] 02/1/2014 13:47

Just digging out some more data

A Roskill pdf dated 28th Oct includes this-:

All the main national importing markets have shown a rise in 2013 with an overall 7.3%yoy growth.

Chile exports data in a separate site suggest iodine exports increased, They did for the US too, and Iofina mentioned as the likely contributor for that rise.

The report although recent is now out of date re future forecasts a they talk of Sirocco expansion (now suspended) and Cosayach expansion plans (application withdrawn November)

[jbe81] 02/1/2014 13:44

Superg which was the best performing tip for 2013? Mine both performed badly in terms of the sp, but hopefully will multi bag from the spa this year. Aaz were killed by a major shareholder selling his stake(still some to go)and ORM are finally showing some signs of life. Whats your tip for 2014?

[superg1] 02/1/2014 13:15

Fresh

They did mention doing extra orders to cover.

There have been 3 arrivals from the Ukraine in Q4, 1 in October and one in November.

I took the November one to be towers and there have been recent rumblings of that io4 towers were on site.

Port arrival is Texas, so about 8-12 hours by road to the OK site.

Re on site, that last one was 22nd December, so if more towers, plenty of time to get then there by the year end.

I think such data on appears on the import sites, once it clears customs.

[freshvoice] 02/1/2014 12:46

Does that mean all of tower for IO4 has only just arrived in States. Was all supposed to be ON SITE by end of Dec? Or could be the spare tower ordered after delays first mentioned. 5 and 6 were going to be GRP if I remember correctly.

[superg1] 02/1/2014 12:41

I forgot to mention.

On 22nd December more kit for iodine plants arrived in the US from the Ukraine.

Apols if someone has already mentioned it.

[bogg1e] 02/1/2014 12:41

Count Chris, sorry for late reply, problems on the advfn server. OK IOF intend to increase thier derivatives. Currently about 400 tons per year of iodine are processed (pls double check this with others like SG) but can improve capacity to about 800 tons per year by adding extra shifts or expanding current facilities.

[superg1] 02/1/2014 12:31

The thought of CF, JP and others on the run, makes me chuckle. I can see them now with a 'silly sods' comment if they read the posts.


Scrut

If it had been my money I would have either found them, or still be hunting with great passion.

[che7win] 02/1/2014 11:25

9 darter,
I lost nearly everything in that fraud.

Management here come across as a lot more credible - they talk openly about the challenges and they are delivering - although slower than expected.

The other difference is that we have real plants - the company website shows the new plants being built and we have real product.

This is the real deal, the only similarity is the popularity of the stock, hence the volatility. However, I hope that volatility moves us up 30p from here in short order, we are much too low and vulnerable IMHO.

[9 darter] 02/1/2014 11:12

Scrutable,

Ok thanks. No malice intended

Your name is constant reminder of Meldex (Dark Days)

Yes I lost and wondering if history is repeating itself here?

[captain_kurt] 02/1/2014 11:07

U.S. GOVERNMENT ORDERS 14 MILLION DOSES OF POTASSIUM IODINE

[scrutable] 02/1/2014 11:01

9 darter

If you meant to ask whether I was one of the thousands taken in by Richard Trevelyan's brazen fraud... Yes I was.

In retrospect the Meldex story can be seen as an extreme example if not unique, of a conspiracy of several directors against a few time servers and fools on the same BOD, who should have protected PIs from what should have been visible from their position as insiders.

For those who do not know the scarcely believable story a whole sequence of RNS were fabricated over 2 years to make believable the technical progress of a product which was eagerly anticipated by the pharmaceutical industry, but was never successfully developed. The RNS and AGMs etc convinced everyone except the FDS who suddenly resigned with a large pay-off but could not subsequently be found. I tried hard but failed, and subsequently acknowledged my naivety - amongst the many also taken in, as I assume you were.

I even received Trevelyan,at my home near by, and was fooled. He was at the last count a criminal chased by Interpol, last heard of in Brisbane. Did the FSA for once do the chasing? And why did they not catch our quarry? Do you know?

[the librarian] 02/1/2014 10:54

I'm sure when the timing is right the mm's will stuff them scrutable and take out their stops... as they do on the longs... but hopefully they will leap frog the stops :-). Not that I wish the shorters any harm, they are only trading on what they believe after all, but I can't help feeling that they have had their day here and it's time to move on.

[scrutable] 02/1/2014 10:34

One of our persistent shorters was off again this morning with a blustering sequence of 10,000 sales, determined to frighten timid PIs into thinking wrongly that the worst was yet to come.

Ennismore if that was them at 'work' or one of the feebler excrescences of the N London Mafia, have yet to understand that borrowing nearly 2.0m shares and selling
them creates a vacuum which will suck back around £80 m worth of buying before equilibrium is restored between genuine buyers and sellers.

That distortion of the company's capital value can only be temporary and the shorters may well have to pay a much more painful premium than they have had to allow for, to cover their robber baron activities.

[9 darter] 02/1/2014 10:27

SCRUTABLE,

Are you the same chap that tucked up a few people in Meldex?

[scrutable] 02/1/2014 10:09

netley

I wish you A Happy New Year.

Thank you for the extraordinary mixture of posts during 2013, some intellectual gems, others provocative and tongue-in-the-cheek, many knowingly containing more tripe than a traditional East End butcher's shop.

The entertainment content of the delivery style and occasional insights into the market and PI behaviour are nevertheless selectively appreciated. Keep it up.