Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[leecoyote] 01/1/2014 19:01

One of Zak Mir's shorts for 2014...

[superg1] 01/1/2014 18:27

I've also dropped plenty of hints about Algorta and opex, but still none of the bears seem to mention them.

After all this is the company SQM mention as increasing supply.

BUT it doesn't add up. 3000mt this year they claim, so why did they do they only do about 1000mt in H1. The facts suggesting that are out there.



It's reasonable to assume $55 per for H1 many mention it.

From the details Algorta had $38/39 opex.

If they are the guys with poor iodine and had to sell it cheaper it H1, then they don't have a lot of room on margins, just the Chile standard rising costs, put them at over $40 for 2014.

The Chile Peso as suspected seems to have made it's turn mid Dec, if it continues to strengthen it will get worse for the Chile miners.

It's seen around 13% weakening since late H1, which was in their favour, H2 a peak mid December but on the favourable terms mines went defensive. If it strengthens again, their margins are going to get hit without the current price drop.

Copper could be the driver there and sentiment currently is bullish which may be the reason for the turn.

You get the drift. Chile high opex mines, and getting worse. Chile peso on a turn, iof 4 and 5 near term it seems, water permit issue could be sorted in weeks. It's not about can't sell iodine but a slipped shipping time.

So yes, with just a few weeks to play with, best get spamming with junk. Deaf ears I suspect, nobody reads spam.

[n3tleylucas] 01/1/2014 18:23

graham, own your attitude, don't project.

[count chris] 01/1/2014 17:52

Thanks Bogg1e - glad I asked. Do they plan to increase their capacity to produce derivatives as production increases or simply sell the excess?

[count chris] 01/1/2014 17:52

Thanks Bogg1e - glad I asked. Do they plan to increase their capacity to produce derivatives as production increases or simply sell the excess?

[count chris] 01/1/2014 17:33

Thanks Bogg1e - glad I asked. Do they plan to increase their capacity to produce derivatives as production increases or simply sell the excess?

[count chris] 01/1/2014 17:33

Thanks Bogg1e - glad I asked. Do they plan to increase their capacity to produce derivatives as production increases or simply sell the excess?

[count chris] 01/1/2014 17:31

Thanks Bogg1e - glad I asked. Do they plan to increase their capacity to produce derivatives as production increases or simply sell the excess?

[count chris] 01/1/2014 17:30

Thanks Bogg1e - glad I asked. Do they plan to increase their capacity to produce derivatives as production increases or simply sell the excess?

[count chris] 01/1/2014 17:29

Thanks Bogg1e - glad I asked. Do they plan to increase their capacity to produce derivatives as production increases or simply sell the excess?

[count chris] 01/1/2014 17:29

Thanks Bogg1e - glad I asked. Do they plan to increase their capacity to produce derivatives as production increases or simply sell the excess?

[shroder] 01/1/2014 16:40

Thanks both, just wanted to make sure my understanding of the process was correct.

naphar 31 Dec'13 - 16:01 - 14225 of 14247 0 0

superg1 31 Dec'13 - 16:05 - 14226 of 14247 3 2



Have a great 2014 all.

[rock star] 01/1/2014 15:54

It is always worth considering the "bear case" for an investment. I think the arguement to be honest is weak. The basic business model is excellent-lowest cost Iodine producer with huge margins and very short payback times.

I think the main thing they have to hang their hat on is the inventory build up and the 3 analyst comments I have read confirm the $3m slippage in EBITDA in 2013 is purely a timing issue to do with shipments rather than no sales made.

On the cashflow side of things one positive thing for IOF is that for the chemicals division the first 4 months of the calender year are always the best for cashflow as new financial year deliveries are made. Also worth noting IOF's customers are generally large multi-nationals so late/non payment is not an issue.

2013 was the year of Capital Expenditure whilst 2014 will be the year of Cash Generation. I still expect cash balances to bottom in Feb/March. This will probably depend on the exact timings of the first shipments of iodine cake. These payments will be relatively lumpy in size and likely in units of around $800,000 due to shipment sizes being 18mt-ie. one containers worth.

IOF were sensible when they issued the convertible with Stena Investments that they raised around double the amount of cash they thought they needed. I suspect the building of IO7 and beyond, as well as the the building of the prill will not be given the green light until the first cake sales have been made and cash balances are rising. This is all part of prudent financial management.

[n3tleylucas] 01/1/2014 15:24

If you like gold stocks, you are by default a bear of this?

LOL

[engelo] 01/1/2014 15:21

Superg: OT your post (14222) re gold "Many (of the larger mines) are said to have an all in costs of $1200 per oz currently."

Theory is that in the event of a gold price rise the highest cost mines benefit most.

eg if your costs are $1000 per oz and POG goes up 50% say from $1200 to $1800 then your margin goes from $200 to $800, ie x4 . If your costs are $600 then margin goes from $600 to $1200 ie 'only' x2 .

Costs of $1200 would theoretically do even better, so when the time comes pile into loss making miners :-)

[the librarian] 01/1/2014 15:12

A bit slow of me, lee is a minion on the payroll perhaps?
Spamming all the boards...

[engelo] 01/1/2014 15:00

orslega: thanks for keeping a record of past performance :-)

[engelo] 01/1/2014 14:58

Napoleon: absolutely. Other possibilities (all imo) out there in the jungle:

Zak could already be short ahead of his tip, and starting to sweat a bit. Alternatively if short from some time back he'll be looking to close and this sort of rubbish may help to keep the share price down. Or he could have no position: but one of his mates has :-)

After all the Daily Mail used to front run ahead of their Midas tips: why would shorters behave any differently? Ought to be a law against it, but there probably isn't.

[napoleon 14th] 01/1/2014 14:16

Zak's short is based purely on chart jargon.
Whilst imo charts can give invaluable guidance,
they are liable to being blown away by real facts.

IMO Zak is only following the herd, as in
after the real opportunity & 6 months too late!

[the librarian] 01/1/2014 14:06

:-) Late to the party on that one lee, he just doesn't understand the company!
Happy New Year all and good luck and happiness in 2014.

[orslega] 01/1/2014 14:03

the fact is that zak mir does not have a credible record as far as Iofina is concerned...back in July...

"The message now is that while the stock price remains above former initial May support at 176p that Iofina could even make a full recovery back to the glory days of May and 250p."

hxxp://www.-.com/blog/category/iofina

and then in August he says..

"One of the more intriguing plays on AIM has been that of Iofina (IOF). Indeed, the price action here has been as weak as the health of the former CEO whose departure earlier in the summer, led to a quite dramatic fall in the share price of the iodine extractor.

Perhaps it could be argued that while the decline was understandable, the business model of the group remains very much intact and therefore this weakness could be a buying opportunity?"

hxxp://www.spreadbetmagazine.com/blog/zak-mirs-minnows-iofina-proteome-emed.html


so a spreadbetter talking fundamentals, contradiction in itself....and what will he say later this month...err, well maybe 250p back on the cards then.....lol

[leecoyote] 01/1/2014 13:45

Oh dear, seems to be one of Zak Mir's shorts for 2014...