Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[diggulden] 23/12/2013 09:28

The RNS was released to let the market know that IOF are on top of it. No RNS would have been worse, at least we KNOW they have a meeting scheduled.

Will the permit be sorted, who knows, hopefully yes.

Plenty of news due in the first 6 weeks of the year though. Still watching that Ennismore short with interest.

[killerbudgie] 23/12/2013 09:19

I agree about shorters reducing - might stabilise things. Short term traders reading that RNS will see the date of January 30 for the meeting. If there is a decision at the meeting then it will need to be formalised and that will take us into Feb. Can't see any more news between now and Jan 30 but would love to be wrong.

[tsmith2] 23/12/2013 09:08

KB, shorters reducing their shorts and short term traders buying ahead of the news flow should hopefully provide a decent short term reboundThe really money is to be made by seeing through Io4,5 and 6 into full production plus the water permits

[killerbudgie] 23/12/2013 09:04

IMHO the RNS was issued to park the sp, at least until the end of January. I can't se there being too much movement on this now until Mid Feb when more production news and the water permit is more definite one way or the other. It would be nice to be wrong.

[substp] 23/12/2013 09:04

Investopedia explains 'Non-Core Item'


"Even if non-core items are considered separate from everyday business operations, they may still represent a substantial part of a business' health. If non-core items are not reported with the same level of transparency then stakeholders are not being given the entire picture."

[tsmith2] 23/12/2013 08:55

Next news..Construction of IO#4 and IO#5 plants has now reached the mechanical fit out stage. Steel fabricated structures await the delayed towers, one comprising of titanium and one set in fibre glass. Both sets are expected on site by the end of December.

[tsmith2] 23/12/2013 08:49

Are u saying that making RNSs should be restricted to just core operational matters and not non core matters irrespective of how valuable/invaluable they may be?It's valuable and very likely to have a significant positive impact on the share price if it comes through (which I expect it will). It's however, not core to the business, so little or no downside if it doesn't come through.

[andy] 23/12/2013 08:44

tsmith,

I the company thought it "non core", why go to the trouble of making the announcement? Clearly there is value there, because you go on to say to say so!

So without it, there has to be a loss right? You can't have it both ways!

Iofina have caused uncertainty in the market, once it is over, and they can clarify towers completed, water permit in place, and strong production, it will be valued again and possibly re rated.

Hard to see much happening before then, IMO.

[tsmith2] 23/12/2013 08:40

This way from the water permit update of 13 DecThe application will require additional information, primarily with respect to offtake engineering and beneficial use of the water. The additional data required is being reviewed with the Company's retained consultants to enable the Company to respond to the DNRC within the 15 days allowed to schedule a follow up meeting to review the application.The Montana water project remains a non-core project within the Iofina portfolio of businesses.So the review of the application will occur on the day but DNRC will now have received all the info required..

[rhwillcol] 23/12/2013 08:39

Right now, IOF appears priced in solely for the non-core water, with the core iodine in for free.

[tsmith2] 23/12/2013 08:35

*definitely NOT in the share price

[tsmith2] 23/12/2013 08:35

Water permit - clearly, non core. Definitely in the price, delay seems a minor hiccup (reading between the lines) and getting it would give a very decent boost to the share price..Also with towers arriving anytime now on #4 and #5, January I think will mark a very good start to 2014..

[diggulden] 23/12/2013 08:24

It's always been non core. We are an iodine production and chemical derivatives company.

[jointer13] 23/12/2013 08:22

non core,,,,buy a nice add on. (when,if we get it).

[uppompeii] 23/12/2013 08:17

So is it core or not? Seems to change every other day!

[naphar] 23/12/2013 08:16

Che, I think people don't really understand the process well enough to put percentage chances on it, even if they did, would the market price it in, maybe but they would also discount it I would have thought.

[che7win] 23/12/2013 08:13

The fact that the water application is continuing isn't reflected in the share price this morning.

I view the water application as being worth up to 80p a share, some of that 80p should be priced into the current valuation.

Even if you think there is a 25% chance of the water being granted, that probability should be pricing in.

[naphar] 23/12/2013 08:02

Semper, read it in isolation without knowledge of the process and its not clear, I agree, read it in light of what we were told in the December 13th RNS and its clear enough I think.

Whilst I can cite many examples of badly written announcements by IOF, this is not one of them I don't think.

[bobsworth] 23/12/2013 07:57

From Last Ops Update 2013 review and 2014 Outlook

"Construction on IO#6 has commenced with the decision to proceed with a site in close proximity of the Group's IO#2 and IO#3 plants."

[jointer13] 23/12/2013 07:49

"Director deals: Iofina chairman Fay bags over £150,000 worth of shares
By Ian Lyall December 21 2013, 10:00am He bought just over £150,000-worth in two tranches at prices between 100p and 101p. It has been a rough week for iodine producer Iofina (LON:IOF) with the share price down around 33% in the last five trading days. The fall was precipitated by a trading update, which lowered earnings and sales guidance and gave a fairly dour assessment of the market for iodine. The miss, however, was more of a timing issue as it said a shipment had been delayed.
And it revealed that even in the current environment, Iofina is still making a decent margin on its low cost production.

In fact the current shake-out could have a long term positive impact as some of the higher cost producers bow out and prices rise. Iofina sees this happening in the second half of next year.
As market makers are not normally given to assimilating such a nuanced assessment of prospects, so the red button was hit and slide began. This is natural, there is always a degree of overselling (panic), which provides and opportunity for those savvy enough to follow their gut instinct. No doubt Iofina chairman Chris Fay believes he has bagged a bargain acquiring stock in the company at depressed levels.
He bought just over £150,000-worth in two tranches at prices between 100p and 101p.
At the moment he is out of the money. But this looks like a long-term wager on the potential of Iofina's technology, which can extract valuable iodine from the brine found when drilling for oil and gas.It will complete its fifth and sixth facility in the US in the first quarter of next year. They have the potential to be huge cash generators and this supports broker Investec's 230p a share price target.
In a recent note it said little had changed with its forecasts, though it added that iodine prices were "slightly below" its assumption.

Investec is predicting revenues of US$18mln this year, rising to US$77.5mln next year and then US$117.8mln in 2015, with the latter figure resulting in a pre-tax profit of over US$50mln.
If Investec's predictions are correct, then Faye has indeed bagged a bargain

[captain_kurt] 23/12/2013 07:43

Semper, the bears said it was a dead duck. I suspect we will bounce today. Fall is way overdone

[semper vigilans] 23/12/2013 07:38

Thanks remo - but if you read it in isolation without detailed knowledge, it looks like they are just issuing an RNS for the sake of it to say they have a meeting in four week's time.

[naphar] 23/12/2013 07:37

Nothing badly written about it at all IMO. We are not at the stage in the process yet, where they know if they have it or not. The DNRC have concerns around the design (possibly a simple engineering fix) and concern around the letters of intent (simple to explain or not I do not know).

So, they have they meeting, explain with more info, they DNRC decide if they think it should be awarded or not.

If they decide not, IOF can arrange a hearing (like an appeal for planning)

If they decide to award, they move to a period of public notice in case of objections, then a final decision is made.

[remp31] 23/12/2013 07:34

They have to go through the process but they would not have the hearing unless iof have produced the required info so looks 2 me just a rubber stamping exercise. Game on!