Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[escapetohome] 06/11/2013 12:24

Always happens in life - what you think can never be - that can and does happen and worse still!

[freshvoice] 06/11/2013 12:06

Never thought we would see 160s again

[superg1] 06/11/2013 11:09

Roger

Easy call imo. The first point is their assets are worth far more than the share price.

They hold most of Montara which covers agriculture and 44k Ha in Tanzania.

So the first thought is Africa and water, that area and sections OBT are in has plenty of it.

They have crops growing now and have news shortly re yields and sales. The government seem to be very supportive and they have been dealt with very favourably re a canning factory and other points.

So then I looked up Tanzania to see what relevance that market has in the country-:

From Wiki

Agriculture

The economy is heavily based on agriculture, which accounts for more than 25 percent of gross domestic product, provides 85 percent of exports, and employs 80 percent of the workforce.[7] 12.25 percent of the land is arable, but only 1.79 percent of the land is planted with permanent crops.[7] According to the 2002 National Irrigation Master Plan, 29.4 million hectares in Tanzania are suitable for irrigation farming; however, only 310,745 hectares in June 2011 were actually being irrigated.[41]

So they are in the right market for the country and with agreements to buy whatever they produce. They look like an early mover in a sector the government seems to embrace participants.

I thought it was a good move to get out of BMN and use the cash for their own operations.

A good stake in paragon diamonds too which some sectors (like share prophets) suggest the far east may be swooping in to grab that company. I won't knock that back.

They have vast acreage of forest and hardwood, with a train track being built that will need many sleepers etc. It's very easy to store trees on their stumps, with leaves still growing, with no tending needed.

Generally it seems many tipsters behind the scenes are talking of Africa as a growth sector.

So overall it looks a good bet for significant gains at some point.


Yes the research in Hawk looks promising too.

[the librarian] 06/11/2013 09:41

I saw that you are still there orslega, well done on that. Just thought those two posts were very pertinent to the current situation with IOF, which of course you can see with your experience patience is the key. But to be fair it doesn't require as much patience as other shares out there... I won't mention them :-)

[orslega] 06/11/2013 09:30

o/t lib, as you know I also was in blinkx from the 9p days...and am still there...a very serious investment now....

...easy to say but the key is that once you are satisfied that the fundamentals are in place, one has to be VERY patient indeed, not to mention AIM and its issues....blinkx has taken much longer than I expected to reach current circa £2 but it got there and the outlook for further growth is there for all to see. Like IOF, Blinkx was seriously shorted not helped by Goldman Sach changing their buy note, with a target £2.50 and then, within a matter of weeks to a hold and 56p target; reckless anal yst. Of course helping their clients on the way. We saw some very nasty price drops (but for the believers, another opportunity to add).

I am expecting the established fundamentals in place here to start kicking in, and soon. But from experience, I also expect a very turbulent ride, hopefully more ups than downs! imo IOF is a game changer and value will out, just be very patient.

[n3tleylucas] 06/11/2013 08:17

you on speed lib?

[the librarian] 06/11/2013 08:15

and the other side of the story on the same thread, I suppose it's about sticking with a good prospect when you see it.

'I've learnt a harsh lesson. I bought in at 15p and sold at 70 ish to play the market. If I'd have left my money in I'd have are a lovely profit and been or of share dealing like mac! Instead I'm chasing loses. Silly me. Hopefully ppr will be my good fortune share now. As well as small sideline in coms and Vmp.

Well done all who stuck it out! More than a ten bagger! Not gelous at all! Lol'

[the librarian] 06/11/2013 08:10

One post from LSE re blinkx

MaccGaz
Posts: 1,100
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Opinion:

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Price:

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Tue 21:02

Well, as many of you know, I've been saving to buy a house and... seeing the results as they were I was a bit concerned! A negative sequential growth but good profits for the revenue - it could have gone either way.

I had targeted £1.80 first and £2.10 as a second option, but as I was offered £1.80 then I took it early in the morning. Looking back I clearly could have held on for another 20p (or more), but you never know how the shares would react and I felt it was better to take a targeted price than to risk not hitting it and suffering another setback.

I bought in mainly at 30p, down to 12p and up to 134p as my max. Overall, my aim was to get more cash from investing that I would just leaving it in the bank. Clearly that target was smashed!

£1.80 gave me a good kitty for my house fund so, whilst its going to be a little painful watching this continue to rise, I think I had to take the opportunity.

So thanks to everyone for their posts, research and conversation over the past 5 years. There were clearly good times and bad, but now is a good time to leave for me personally. I can't hang on forever without my own home!

Good luck to you all and, actually, thanks to Blinkx for making me a richer man!

[the librarian] 06/11/2013 08:05

Just to add, I can look back at the money I had a couple of years ago and although it's not a huge amount by some standards, but due to IOF it has tripled in that time.... that's ok.

[the librarian] 06/11/2013 08:03

Hey ramu, your previous post didn't come across very well, now that you have explained I can empathise. In retrospect we can all criticise each other, which is pointless really, and look at shares that have (apparently) performed better.

IOF has probably been a learning curve for us all, me in particular. Would have been nice to get into ATUK when superg pointed it out or others, but the fact is I stay here because it is mappable (glitches now accepted) and is a good solid business in a niche market that will be taken out, or rise to dominance in the iodine market.

For my sins there were older and wiser ones that I did take notice of and got stuffed like a kipper, but that (hopefully) won't happen again.

[n3tleylucas] 06/11/2013 07:40

Keith,

Some L2 today please.

The Totnes pics are wonderful.



NL

[escapetohome] 06/11/2013 07:27

Beleiving what people say on a BB - Oh dear - Another lesson learnt. Read and then apply your critical acumen, please do no other than that!

[che7win] 06/11/2013 07:23

Ramu,
"This stock is not going to fly NOW for many reasons but mainly because all of us, including yours truly were promised riches beyond our dreams without acknowledging the complexities of build, staffing, weather, health & safety, compliance, red tape etc. to progress from one plant to multiple plants. We are still messing around with IO3 with brine etc. and some posters are talking about takeovers, mergers etc. "

I have said from the start (1 year ago) that nothing ran smoothly and there were risks in rollout and that inevitable delays would happen. It was one of my concerns, the confidence of others that everything would rollout smoothly.

You can't include all of us in your view, I continually state the hard graft ahead that the company must get through to realise value.

Everything is looking good and within my expectations at this stage.

[escapetohome] 06/11/2013 07:18

Taking out a spreasd bet at £2.40 was asking for trouble - a lesson learnt!

[superg1] 06/11/2013 07:16

Crazy

Good post by the way. :-)

[superg1] 06/11/2013 06:59

I don't mention what think those dog over-priced share are as the moment someone does that, the relevant thread, some with complete idiots on attack other threads.

Once IOF has the first run plants done I don't plan to post here, but just to keep invested/building as I see fit.

However imo by that time imo I think it's unlikely that someone won't have come bidding for IOF.

Some time back I spotted a company CTN (I think) and on careful reading of the news releases they seemed unable to cope with orders and had to buy a new building to accommodate staff. Looks interesting said I.

I think it was Sandbag that bought some, before I had time to have a good look, someone stuck an offer in and it was gone.

Every small oil company could claim TO but there are 100's of them.

[superg1] 06/11/2013 06:42

Ramu

Good post, but to cover one line

'we will be lucky to get IO3 at optimum output by year end'

This not an io2 situation waiting for brine, the brine is already there. Someone posted recently about the difference between starting a brand new plant with everyone including the CEO not knowing how the plant will perform. Hence 30 day on site training timelines were given. IO2 is also very different to io1 re the methods and some automation. with io3 it will be similar but with staff that have already been working at io2, so they know the system and some were present helping it put together.

Another key point is IOF are sitting in the middle of an oil boom, it's rig and drilling chaos on the Miss play at the moment and it will gather pace.

I understand that now IOF are in a situation of start up, and full brine available, they would aim to get to max capacity within a week. That assumes no issues with the plant as until you turn it on and run it, you don't know if all cylinders are firing as they should.

So it seems the max rate is achievable in a 7 day to 30 day timeframe, but yes it is always sensible to allow for issues on any plant.

As for £2.50, Yes the forecast by IOF was io6 by now and a water depot, and when the thread was chirping about £2.50 plus, I did say it's best to wait for updates, not get carried away

The unfortunate news re Lance did knock things back, both on panic and timelines achieved, but the ship now has a team replacing one guy who are now getting it back on track.

Yes short term some shares will have performed better, over the last few months. I can point out loads, but for many of them I haven't a clue where they are going to achieve the revenue from to match their MC. Meanwhile the herd drives the prices higher on some on pure momentum.

Take it 6/12 months down the line and I believe IOF will be on prices beyond this fully justified on earnings. For many others, if they are still on dizzy heights and if the tide goes out, they will need more than budgie smugglers to hide their blushes.

I don't like the thought of shorting buy I am slowly building a list of shares ready to consider in the future, not by posting lies and deceit, but just making calls on shares that can't possibly justify prices they are heading for, not even if they deliver.

AVN is the best example where I was completely dumfounded by the hype and claims, all backed by tip sites and analysts, those 'expert professionals' weren't just tipping it, they were proactively, and obsessively ramping the backside off it, day in day out on highs.

Personally I feel much more comfortable at these prices, than them representing where we may be in 6 months, on delivery.

It's the business plan, lowest capex/opex model with world leading potential that attracts me, in a market where even the world number 1 is struggling in rising costs.

The rest is just a free carry imo.

I can see some with great ideas and enthusiasm, but that isn't a business plan that is a hope that someone will want it, by buying it. If 'it' disrupts major established industries, then 'it' will be messed about for years by those that it affects and will bleed out.

Some fantastic ideas, never make it, because they are just too good, and cost established networks many billions. We have seen many times when apparent competitors, work together to protect their business, sometimes through criminal means of price fixing

IOF however have 'it', and are using it themselves to make money not trying to sell 'it' to someone else.

So the under the radar line is no excuse it's self preservation. IF SQM or others could have predicted 2 years back that IOF would be moving towards some 400mt plants and many others at a paltry cost of $1.5m plus per plant with $15 opex, they would have put a stop to IOF back then.

They had no need to worry though, as the Oklahoma connected producer, Toyota Tsusho just last year, said that Chile is the only place left to produce iodine on a large scale, and had already backed that up by over-paying for a chunk of Algorta.

The Chile problems are set for years, there is no quick fix and those there involved in mining didn't see it coming, not even the biggest gold miner in the world whose capex predictions from idea to execution jumped from $1.5 billion to over $10 billion. That venture is now finished and sounds like $3 billion was wasted with no returns.

This thread predicted it though, and at a time when just about every analyst was screaming buy Chile mining stocks on the highs.

Let's see where we are in a year or two

[crazycoops] 06/11/2013 06:34

IOF about to produce diamonds from thin air

And that is definitely not in the price yet - IMHO :)

[ramu kumar] 05/11/2013 23:59

Librarian,

No need to be sarcastic - I hold 200k shares, bought at various prices from 40p to £2.40 and the monetary value is far from paltry. All of them on SBs with CI, IG and GFT. At the moment, I'm sitting on £40k loss and every penny variance is £2k, so do the maths and you'll know where I'm coming from.

I do bother because if I'm not so deep into IOF, I could have invested in other stocks that would have yield better returns in a shorter period. I'm not a trader but I've been in IOF almost 18 months and a loss running into tens of thousands is not good investing and truth be told, I did get carried away with one respected poster claiming share price in excess of £2.50 in June.

However, like Scrut I did diversify and bought into other stocks that have risen significantly to offset my losses here.

Lib, I'm NOT negative, just being realistic and I do have a right to voice my opinion when I hold a significant amount, over a period of 18 months and witnessed numerous shortcomings. C'mon, wake up - we were talking about 6 plants this year and now we cannot even confirm IO3 is up and running at optimum levels. Then you get posters talking about acquisitions, mergers, oil, helium, water etc. etc. What do you want me to write about - IOF about to produce diamonds from thin air!

BWNP

[bogg1e] 05/11/2013 23:36

ramu, if the ping is 1000 tons per year output then from IO4 onwards it should be apparent to interested parties that that volume is achievable, so given the extra plants coming online on top we should achieve that by Q2 2014.

[the librarian] 05/11/2013 23:27

You are indeed in an enviable position to hold 200k in a stock you are negative about ramu, I don't know if that is £'s or shares but your SLIGHTLY better off sounds like pocket money to you, I'm surprised you bother for such a paltry sum :-)

[escapetohome] 05/11/2013 23:09

£2 would be a truly wonderful Christmas present.

[ramu kumar] 05/11/2013 22:29

Guys,

Calm down. All of you have posted valid points but to quote WyleCoyote, post 10606, "I feel that the good news was anticipated and priced in. Thus the share price is suffering a lull. It did fly from 40.0p to 240.0p" is probably the most sensible post I've heard in months.

This stock is not going to fly NOW for many reasons but mainly because all of us, including yours truly were promised riches beyond our dreams without acknowledging the complexities of build, staffing, weather, health & safety, compliance, red tape etc. to progress from one plant to multiple plants. We are still messing around with IO3 with brine etc. and some posters are talking about takeovers, mergers etc.

Get a reality check guys, as I said in one of my previous post, we will be lucky to get IO3 at optimum output by year end and share price of £2. Truly sorry to be negative but I still hold 200k of this stock and resigned to the fact that if delivery is confirmed then I'll be SLIGHTLY better off than I am now.

I'm not going to sign off AIMHO or DYOR but BWNP (Beware of Winks, Nudges and Ping)

[superg1] 05/11/2013 22:20

As I said very recently I don't worry about the companies I invest in, just the investors.

That goes for many shares. All investment advice states it should be taken as a five year view. Yet in some cases all I see is the patience of a cobra with toothache, in a wasps nest.


Wait for the highs and euphoria to buy again, to panic and sell on any retrace seems to be a common trait on any share.

Shares go up and down whichever trend they are on.

EWCT

Did you think the majors in IOF sat with fingers inserted, not putting a call in and ask what that line meant.?

I think not, well no thinking at all really, they did, and so have others. Try speaking to one.

I personally think, after research, that it is nothing to get hot under the collar about.

We'll see over the next week or so.

[the librarian] 05/11/2013 21:44

Yep, it's all negatives in the RNS :-)

'Production staff have taken charge of the facility from the Group's construction and fabrication crews at IO#3, which is located in Oklahoma approximately 15 kilometers from the IO#2 plant.

Iofina's construction team is continuing work on the rollout of the IO#4, IO#5 and IO#6 iodine extraction plants. Large, productive brine flows which exceed current IO#2 capacity may warrant diversion of the equipment staged for the IO#6 plant to a location adjacent to IO#2 which the Board believe may have both short and long term financial benefits. Iofina engineers are currently studying the merits and implications of such a change. The Group's construction and fabrication teams continue work on IO#4 and IO#5 as planned.'

Note: 'may warrant' as well.