Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[pigeon1] 04/11/2013 12:35

Superg

Yes Fay told me it takes literally a few days to get a new plant up to speed, assuming no problems. Was expecting to be at full speed already but i accept there are always snags.

Re "As for io2 nothing has been said production wise since the brine rate drop back in June. We now know io2 has more brine that it can handle, so there must be an rns lurking there somewhere too re production."

Yes that's my issue, i'm a little annoyed we haven't had an update on production there. Hopefully it will be worth waiting for.

I'm not at all interested in staying under the radar that line has worn very thin now!

[bogg1e] 04/11/2013 12:31

It cant be that hard surely? Kelp only grows within certain depths. Once you know the sea level when the kelp beds were present, identified applicable shoreline shelves where they could grow and mapped them to current geology, the likelihood of identifying the most promising locations would surely be a lot easier?

[hew] 04/11/2013 12:11

SG (or anyone), re your sentence:

"It's all the do with that ancient river delta and the geology they can now see."

Are you aware how much of that is general knowledge? Has I*OF geological work given them any special insights?

If IOF do have, it is another reason for keeping cards close to the chest.

[n3tleylucas] 04/11/2013 12:11

L2 please...

[n3tleylucas] 04/11/2013 12:10

Ben Graham... hmmm, gettin' wet

[superg1] 04/11/2013 12:09

Pigeon

I hear that the 30 days to get up to speed on a plant can be done in a week now as staff are at new sites have already been employed at others like io2.

So issues aside once io3 gets brine it could move up to good levels in quick time, it's not like io2 where they were waiting for brine, it's just a case how quickly they can increase the flow into the plant.

Timings unknown but one would expect an rns once they have io3 up speed. As for io2 nothing has been said production wise since the brine rate drop back in June. We now know io2 has more brine that it can handle, so there must be an rns lurking there somewhere too re production.

It always makes sense to have a good run of brine and production before an rns commenting on it.

[titus10] 04/11/2013 12:03

SCRUTABLE - good to read of your path to analysis and your take on some of the ideas perhaps familiar under different labels is most interesting.

Personally, having studied and learned from most of the stuff in publication in the 1960s - mainly on interpreting company data (fundamentals?) - the shorthand often now called Technical Analysis which blew in with the Americans in the '70s opened my eyes to the study of outcomes, i.e. what actually moves investment instrument prices rather than projecting from statistics to presume what 'should' happen in valuation terms and consequent pricing.

Yes, I'd looked at Grahame & Dodd and couldn't dispute their logic. A contemporary called Buffet seems to have done alright (O.K., a whole lot better than I have) from following Benjamin Grahame. But as you've noted, inside information was a very different game then and the notion that cycles, oscillations, patterns and tendencies might be discerned in price movements was intriguing.

A guy called Bob Beckman, who looked more like a gaucho from the badlands than an investment guru arrived from the USA to publish his Investors Bulletin and set up increasingly large paid seminars in London, where one could hear from and meet with leading exponents in analysis and some very successful investors.

The weekly Investors Bulletin taught me a lot about interpreting markets pragmatically and one after the other the pennies dropped regarding the effects of participant behaviour in relation to 'news', reports and press coverage.

What fascinated me then and still does is the interplay of events and participant (investors, insiders, traders) treatment of such changing or developing events and influences.

We are taught to justify our take on a situation on grounds of logic & reason - 'evidence'. That gives us validity, demands respect. It may be unwise, however, to ignore our evolution. We may talk of Greed & Fear, but do we recognise it properly in investment analysis?

As for cycles, wheels within wheels, Chinese boxes, could it be that they chime with natural events like our seasons, our life cycle, our attention spans?

If I've learned nothing else, it is to keep an open mind and test laboriously any concept which may have an influence on price movement. It means work and flexibility, awareness whilst avoiding bias. Cherry picking some ideas and rejecting others can be a mistake: try asking why one tends to do that.

There are no absolutes and stuff happens, as they say.

Wish I'd done more when younger! Nowadays I generally win when applying what I've learned - but all too often nowadays fail to act on what I know...

[pigeon1] 04/11/2013 11:41

When you expecting that dcgray?

[dcgray21] 04/11/2013 11:29

Will go North once we have production update

[n3tleylucas] 04/11/2013 10:54

L2 anyone?

[crosseyed] 04/11/2013 10:41

superg1,

OT re TPL.
I would suggest you read JTCod's incredibly well-researched analysis of TPL posted in April 2012 when he allegedly made a significant investment. This was on his BB which I am sure those who are aware of it will agree that it was an excellent and serious (with intersperced humour) BB. JTCod rarely posts there now, but he does post on the TPL thread from time to time, always worth reading. The TPL thread (hosted by rhubarbe) is also of good quality, again with serious and knowledgeable posters (though unfortunately with posters who are best ignored or filtered).

Anyway, I suggest for a thorough background, read JTCod's post which still remains relevant (also in the header of rhubarbe's TPL BB) at...


I would also suggest looking up the details of:

(a) the with Total and CNCP with TPL's subsidiary in Tajikistan at 33% each into what is rated to be a mega-field - hence the big boys - with a cash payment of ~$60 million;

(b) the with Hanhong, a Beijing-based private equity company, announced on Friday, into their producing and exploratary assets in Kazakhstan with an initial injection of $75 million plus possibly 2 futher payments of $30 million subject to increases in P2 reserves (though the deal has to be ratified by the Kazakh government).

I hope that helps, but obviously DYOR,

c

[n3tleylucas] 04/11/2013 09:53

This is becoming quite a good thread.

[scrutable] 04/11/2013 09:33

Titus, you have been at it nearly as long as I have, so may be more tolerant of what comes next.

From 1970 until Y2000 the playing field was grossly uneven. Inside information ruled the day and the odds AGAINST a PI making a trading profit trended to 100% over time. Buy and hold was your only chance and had to be from judicious anticipation of social and economic trends. I remember Allied Bakeries being on a long 'anticipatable' bull run as they bought up one local big family bakery after another in the 60s and installed automated plants to churn out sliced bread. That trend remained for 3-4 years. The same was predictable of the rise of the supermarkets.History repeats itself. It's just as easy to see today how well IOF is going to do. Pace the Black Swan

But with a probability loading I guess of 40-60% against the PI on every trade, only judgement with the benefit of time and patience could make money. I got so frustrated by the few sources of information then available, the commissions, paper work, and professional barriers. I used to buy the IC and find each Monday morning the market makers ready with their large nets and raised prices to catch the hopeful every time. Ten days later the calm and the prices had returned to the status ante quo.

Then came the internet with ADVFN, Sharescope, UpData, access to the RNSs of the day at 07.00. The playing fields slowly evened up - not to 50:50 but perhaps 48:52 today.

At that time DYOR became a cause for hope. I have never seen adequate correlation with future events from the accepted 'wisdom' of patterns: head and shoulders, saucers etc but double, and more so treble, tops and bottoms have predictive value beyond mere chance - except when they go exactly the opposite way - but then usually the flip direction is visible in the fundamentals.

My own DYOR has brought me profit from spotting and validating a repeatable pattern: the sticky oscillations which result from the real tug of war between Fear and Greed. These exist over three discernible units of time: long term (2-7+) years; medium term (2-6 months - eg IOF 2 months), and short term - the least predictable and least useful 5-15 days. Fractals all, they lie inside one another like Russian Dolls which makes it difficult for the non-scientific/mathematical to spot.

By buying only at the bottom and sometimes taking profits at the top (when not deciding to stay long which I often do) and investing only in companies with a growing gross margin, I reckon to have turned the bias against the PI into a 70-30% advantage..

A second bit of DYOR has led to my promulgating Edward's law' which I found to offer repeatability. I found that for each size of company there was a relationship between the value of the Out-of-Balance between buying and selling on any day and the change in capitalisation. It was surprisingly large for small company shares varying from 20:1 to 100:1 for the most volatile.

I have never been able to see any value in Moving Averages. As hind sight indicators they seem less reliable than the actual share price points themselves, and the further back they go ie to say 200 days the worse they are at indicating the price levels tomorrow (impossible) or next week or month (only slightly less difficult)

As for price prediction in general the closer it gets to tomorrow the nearer it gets to pure chance (except where inside information is at work). If you aspire to greater accuracy in share price forecasting stick to the long term and work from financial and production performance figures. For 1-4 months use the sticky oscillation discipline and buy only in the Oversold half of the chart, and preferably as close to the bottom as you dare to do without missing the turn.

It's all about managing probabilities and reducing the proportion of trades most likely to bring you down

May good luck smile on you all more often that not

[jointer13] 04/11/2013 08:13

supreme mo.

"Just going to throw something into the mix JP said at one of the q and a's during a recent presentation (jointer can hopefully back me up)...

"He said that the ppm is so random its unreal in a particular area. He gave the example of the building we were in at the time and the local train station 400m away. He said here (the building) could have 250ppm at one well whereas the train station could have 20ppm at another well - it can vary that much.

He was very confident they got most of the sweet spots they need.

He also expressed the importance of consistent brine in terms of bpd.

As mentioned in the past iof have identified "hyper" sites with idiosyncratic levels of iodine in samples, but the bpd are low. These locations are where the mini iosorb units will be used."

bang on s.mo.

the geologists have it nailed. (they were very upbeat re this)

roll on the rollouts.

[superg1] 04/11/2013 08:00

TPL

For me you would have to spell it out, as I had a quick look at came across two separate words ending in 'stan' and switched off.

That could be down to my ignorance of the countries involved, combined with a desire not just to look at the arterial flow of the business but starting at the capillaries. That would take me a long time to work through.

I would imagine others are put off by such operational area factors.

So who or what do we look at, for the best description/coverage of the business.

[1madmarky] 04/11/2013 07:58

Glad I don't own shares in a company mining calich. What a palarva! Cheers for the info

[superg1] 04/11/2013 07:49

Pc

The water cut goes up over time, so it's a lot of brine over a long period.
I was reading the Mid states presentation yesterday-:

As of September 2013, Midstates has 98 wells that have been on production for ~30+ days
•
Average peak 30-day rate for all 98 wells is 583 Boe/d
•
44 wells had 30-day rate in excess of 500 Boe/d
•
13 wells had 30-day rates in excess of 1,000 Boe/d

~100 wells producing from the Mississippian Lime (1)
› ~600 potential future gross drilling locations (3 wells per section)
•
~800 gross locations on 4 wells per section

2013 Investment plan

Guidance: $550 to $575 million
•
55% Miss Lime, 25% Gulf Coast, and 20% Anadarko(1)


If you look at Rug's recent map it only looks like a handful of recent wells, that have taken the io2 location to over 50k bpd, and a 6th SWD as it was previously 5 as far as I am aware.

The brine volume v wells seems to support the high water cut v oil as mentioned before of up to 10 to 1. Average oil is 583 bps.

Midstates continue their drilling with most of their budget going on the Miss play. 100 wells done with prospects for 500 to 700 more.

That's a lot of wells and brine, if they are looking at 60k bpd per SWD (mentioned in old presentations), the number of wells now, and that 6th SWD fits the guide that the Miss produces a lot of brine.

If they have 6 now for 100 wells they will need 30 to 40 more in the next few years.

The other partners that IOF are with have 30 times the acreage that Midstates have. Taking Midstates comments, that's 1000 more swds potential.

It's a boom in it's early stages, with a massive amount of potentially iodine rich brine as yet untested.

That's what makes the contracts lucrative, and the patent enormous.

[rugrat2] 04/11/2013 07:19

Pcjoe - yes the DAcoma swd now looks to me to be a prime target for IOF, as does the Murrow. Got to go.

[pcjoe] 03/11/2013 23:31

Rug - The IO2 (Longhurst) SWD was rumoured to be running at near capacity ( Was it 50k or 60k BPD of brine disposal per day?)- Presumably there will be decline on that figure over time from existing wells - though at what rate we dont know - Just wondering if there is any spare disposal capacity for new wells as per your map - We cant know the Iodine PPM at the Dacoma SWD, but it looks like a very possible target for an IO plant at some near stage?

If IO6 is going to end up at the IO2 site as per latest company info & any possible Dacoma plant just down the road comes off - this area is going to be a very busy but economically manageable little spot for IOF

[rugrat2] 03/11/2013 21:17

CC thanks for that tip.

[crazycoops] 03/11/2013 20:56

Here is the link to Rug's map:



FYI Rug, if you type the HTTP in uppercase, I think it shows as a live hyperlink, even as a 'non-blue'.