Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[festario] 28/10/2013 16:28

Damn, I thought I had seen the last of shares in IOF trading in the 170's. very disappointing to see.

[freshvoice] 28/10/2013 16:22

Has the next RNS leaked at 4.12p.m.?

[superg1] 28/10/2013 14:23

Titus

An example today of me clearly not having similar logic to others, therefore not logical.

GDG have an rns today about significant increases in gas reserves in China. It seems they have learned of the prospects from the Chinese companies (prob state owned) that are drilling extensively and illegally, on GDG leases.

'Green Dragon is in constructive dialogue with the relevant parties in order to successfully ascertain the appropriate entitlement over this extensive drilling activity. At this point we are aware that gas production and revenues have been extracted from the blocks and these will be disclosed in a later update following verification. We are committed to resolving this matter amicably but are ready to enforce our rights if needed to ensure appropriate entitlement to Green Dragon shareholders'

The share price is up, and GDG holders like the news.

If I flip that and IOF had their plants in China, as that is where the iodine was, but the Chinese stuck plants all over IOF's contracted leases, with IOF having to go down the legal route to challenge the Chinese, I wouldn't be chirpy about the knowledge gained, that the amount of iodine in place, had gone up.

I must be bonkers.

[bogg1e] 28/10/2013 13:57

over 200k houses without electricity :-( I imagine there shall be a lot of nasty, slippery wet leaves on the twain twacks, so there will be no trains this week :-)

[bobsworth] 28/10/2013 13:38

Yes all quite here. The lull after the storm!

[titus10] 28/10/2013 09:50

WRITZ

Thanks for your forbearance for what might have been taken as a somewhat tetchy response to your reasonable question.

I'll let you into a secret. I decided a few years back to look at what went on on bulletin boards hoping for a coalface insight into PI thinking and behaviour, to improve my own understanding and to help me decide whether going to the inevitable trouble and distraction of writing a book might be worthwhile.

It has helped plenty and I still think I might have something to offer that way. However, the realisation that in the digital age the target audience is increasingly unlikely to want to cover the ground sufficiently for the pennies to drop, one after the other, now says "forget it".

The internet is a ready resource of the 'quick & dirty'. A few clicks in S t o c k o p e d i a tells you all about 'TA' doesn't it? No wonder dismissive rubbish proliferates on BBs.

So, with time increasingly precious, I'm spending it in the game. As GBS wrote in 1903: "He who can does. He who cannot, teaches".

[bogg1e] 28/10/2013 08:02

We may have a quiet day today, especially if train services to London have been cancelled.

[superg1] 27/10/2013 21:11

I know it's down the line but my curiosity over the Nisku formation under IOF continues. I have been doing a little digging.

We know Weil resources had oil shows in the Nisku formation near IOF acreage near the southern section of the Sweetgrass arch. Then for their first Oil well ever in Montana, Weil applied for a permit to drill the Nisku in Roosevelt county. Everyone else in that county is drilling the 3 forks and Bakken.
It seems daft to waste a few million on such a wildcat well, but clearly something has stirred Weil to have a look way East of where they had oil shows in the Nisku.

There are references around to show that a number of wells drilled in the 80's had oil shows in the southern Sweetgrass arch area. Iof have leases in that area and we know the Conway well onto IOF acreage had an oil show in the Nisku.


Abexo have put out a presentation for September 2013

East Kevin Field - Nisku Oil Development Play
•
Low risk offset drilling in a well-diversified light oil portfolio situated in northern Montana ~16 miles from the Canada-US border

•
Primary objective to target the conventional Nisku carbonate play

•
East Kevin Field is located in the best Nisku porosity area discovered on the dome

•
Large coverage of high quality 3D seismic – 39 square miles (24,960 acres)

•
Multi-zone potential, seven shallower formations with proven reservoir potential (and the Bakken currently being evaluated) will be seen and evaluated by every Nisku well drilled.


I have only had a quick look but it looks like interest in the Nisku is starting

[bobsworth] 27/10/2013 20:18

Thanks for the 45 day clarification which supports my estimated time frames.

What exciting times for us share holders as Iofina get very close to adding another string to their bow.

[writz] 27/10/2013 16:13

Titus - understood. If you've written a book, I'll buy it!

[superg1] 27/10/2013 13:26

Forget holidays or working days, it's just a public notification period, but seems to start from the date it gets published rather than determination to grant dates.

I'm not sure where IOF got the 30 days from, unless it's changed.

Thanksgiving I understand is the main event in the US, not so much Xmas like us.

[n3tleylucas] 27/10/2013 12:07

Yes micro, I know what you mean, but the effect (if it happens) is a redistribution of Gov tax help by limiting the withdrawal element to £36,000.

The Gov is subsidising everyone, so to moan about limiting the wealthier subsidy to help the more modest is a little wrong-minded if you don't mind me saying.

Those with the broadest shoulders should carry the most weight.

And tbh, what the heck Gov are doing helping the wealthiest is flippin' well beyond me... oh, votes... yeah.

The state is a safety net, not a trough for wealthy folk to sink their snouts into.

[titus10] 27/10/2013 11:57

SG1 & WRITZ (761, 764)

"TA is driven by reactions to signals in the charts"
"...what you think drives price movement in a way that makes it amenable to TA".

Oh dear. What on earth, I wonder, is this "TA"? Where should one start?

Like two fat guys banging stomachs one often sees 'Fundamental Analysis' and 'Technical Analysis' represented as some kind of one-upmanship boasting conflict.

In the context of company shares speculation I suppose we examine whatever data is published or can be unearthed about an organisation's activity and intentions because this is what we are taught to do. Obvious, init. Logic & reason. Fundamental. Thus future value is what we try to gauge.

So looking at what actually happens is pointless: "Past performance is no guide to the future" we are officially warned. The Efficient Market Hypothesis covers anything else.

Really?

Why are we in the game of financial speculation? Investment & trading are speculative activities, however you choose to be involved. Answer: to make money either or both from interest paid in return for participating in the risk of an enterprise and from the asset's market price movement. On these boards that mostly means private punting in AIM shares, apparently. So setting aside all the huffing and puffing, it's price movement.

Why do prices move? Generally speaking because human beings buy or sell shareholdings.

Is it really important why, how, on what basis, that occurs? My answer: No - and Yes.

No because ultimately it's what happens rather than why that matters.

Yes because any insight into what the motivators of price movement (humans) tend to do to cause those movements could offer an edge.

Personally, I've always been uneasy about calling that study Technical Analysis and find I'm not alone: many of my contemporaries seem to come round eventually to the realisation that, as in many life activities such as art or music, technique is no more than a tool which must be mastered to the point where it becomes subliminal if true masterpieces are to be achieved.

David Fuller, for example, came from the USA to join a firm called Commodity Analysis, launch Chart Analysis and produce a weekly chart book service (the PC was yet to arrive then). Nowadays, The Chart Seminar, which he too founded, talks not of TA but behavioural analysis and afaics only the simplest of charting is used there.

Price charts track price sequences over time. Between 1965 and 1985 or thereabouts I probably read most that has been written about price movement analysis, having first read Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations and Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, which stirred that essential interest. For now getting on for half a century I've tested, tested, tested and tested any thesis of interest, some of it academic beyond my basic maths, sifting, relating, learning, learning and in my 84th year finding anything new is a delight - but rare.

The subject is huge. But times change and the age of Information Technology is showing disquieting signs of tricking those growing up now into the belief that all wisdom and understanding is worthless unless it can be texted in a limited cage of characters.

DYOR they say. Do you really? When you have, let's discuss. Till then, sorry but I can't make much of the questions.

[chumbo] 27/10/2013 11:17

Thanks Bobsworth for setting that out. So we're in the zone for possible news in the coming week and a chance of a Crimbo prezzie of permit granted. However, don't forget all the holidays coming up over the pond in the next few weeks (I guess the 45 days are working days):



November

Monday, November 11th 2013
Veterans Day
public holiday in the United States


Thursday, November 28th 2013
Thanksgiving Day
public holiday in the United States


December

Wednesday, December 25th 2013
Christmas Day
public holiday in the United States

January

Wednesday, January 1st 2014
New Year's Day
public holiday in the United States


Monday, January 20th 2014
Birthday of Martin Luther King Jr.
public holiday in the United States

[microcline] 27/10/2013 08:14

PS your ISA is also in the HMRC crosshairs.

[microcline] 27/10/2013 08:11

If interested in how the government intend shifting the pension goalposts again read this. I was referring to page 34.

[microcline] 27/10/2013 08:00

N3tleyLucas I am not referring to tax relief on contributions, but the amount of tax free cash which can be withdrawn from a pension fund. Those lucky enough to have a final salary pension will also be affected. In fact will the government save money in the long term? All those on the government payroll [the proposers no doubt] will see their pensions increase in lieu of that tax free cash withdrawn, index linked of course [an increasing bill for the taxpayer]. Those of us on personal pensions will have to make do with current annuity rates.
NL I agree those people who have modest pensions due to a lifetime of low wages thru no fault of their own deserve our assistance. What I do object to is subsidising those who had the ability to save but spent it on hols [and massive carryouts] to the likes of the Maldives twice a year.

[superg1] 27/10/2013 07:18

Just a guide Bobsworth as those determination to grant forms are lengthy.

I note one in Hill county has moved to determination to grant (16th Oct), 21 days after application complete and correct. It's only for a small amount so probably easy to sign off.

There is another that took 6-7 weeks

[n3tleylucas] 27/10/2013 01:57

freshvoice 26 Oct'13 - 22:32 - 10245 of 10245 0 0

Bobby,
If you must engage with the village nutter you will only encourage him to post more.

.........................

Absolutely disgusting post... condoned by most no doubt.

[freshvoice] 26/10/2013 22:32

Bobby,
If you must engage with the village nutter you will only encourage him to post more.

[bobsworth] 26/10/2013 22:05

As the pending water rights application is significant for Iofina, based on the following snippets of info posted on the BB and info stated by Iofina, here are some possible RNS dates for " Preliminary determination to grant water rights has been achieved" and most importantly "Full award of water rights permit has been granted"

These possible dates are based on the follow:-

1. 'If the application is correct & complete with all the criteria met (tick list, demand, beneficial use etc), then by law they had to award a "Preliminary determination to grant a permit.

2. Preliminary determination to grant to a full award of permit is then subject to a public appeal (45 days).

3. Based on above, Iofina have stated 120 days from 30 September for a Full award of water rights permit.

4. That said most recent water right applications viewed have moved from complete to "Preliminary Determination to Grant" between 4 and 9 weeks (28 and 49 days).

Date Calculation:-

Assuming its sooner like other water rights applications as high lighted by Superg1 i.e. 4 and 9 weeks to Preliminary, we could get the "Preliminary determination to grant water rights RNS " between Wed 30th October (4 wks/28 days) from 30th Sept which is next week and 20th November (9 wks/49 days) from 30th Sept which is just one month from now.

Adding on the 45 days for public appeal we could then get the "Full award of water rights permit has been Granted RNS" between the 14th December, i.e. Wed 30th October + 45 days = 73 days and 4th Jan 2014, i.e. 20th November + 45 days = 94 days.

Add in a few days for the person dealing with Iofina's water rights application for possible sickness or holidays absence and you can see why Iofina have cautiously stated 120 days for the time it could take from 3oth September to a "Full award of water rights permit".

So in summary the possible water rights dates for your diary could be:-

1. 30th October to 20th November 2013 for "Preliminary Determination to Grant.
2. 14th December 2013 to 4th January 2014 for " Full award of water rights permit".

[peterz] 26/10/2013 22:02

Bobby - no point in dialogue, just filter mate.

[bobbyshilling] 26/10/2013 21:01

Yeah, tomorrow's figures. He he he! They mean very little in the big picture.

[n3tleylucas] 26/10/2013 20:57

Okay, but don't you dare have a pop at posters who say that delays will lead to lower than expected profits.