Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[scrutable] 14/9/2013 20:06

If the news on 25th is of a return to the rapid visible growth expected during 2012 and postponed but changed only for the better, by switching IOI#2 and subsequent plants from Texas to Oklahoma, (and I very much think it will) then TA suggests a rapid return to the long term resistance line of the chart at 320p by mid-January.

Does any chartist agree to my now highly exposed forecast?

Thanks to Lance's considerate preparations, and without consulting charts, I do not believe that the pause in growth was more than an interruption, ie a time offset to the production build up, and during the hiatus all the internal gestation continued like the roots of a plant continuing to strengthen in Winter whilst the external foliage was cut back - to burst forth again in Spring.

ergo the model reflected by all the reports is of the vegetative cycle in temperate parts and the Bears have mistaken the absence of tangible growth for a sickness instead of a re-accumulation of hidden strength.

How they will be mortified.

This is surely a fantastic buying opportunity?

[worraps] 14/9/2013 16:02

It's going to feel very strange seeing you the same colour as us mere mortals, superg! Despite no subscription, I hope you'll still be here during what I believe should be a very exciting six months to come, and then another 18 months after that, should see us as a completely different company, possibly in more ways than one?

[superg1] 14/9/2013 14:43

Good news my ADVFN subscription runs out soon, I had paid the full year so there was no point in cancelling, I will feel so much better posting having not paid for the service.

Must hunt out some level 2, but I'm not giving this lot any more cash

[itstelboy] 14/9/2013 13:59

Nice one rovi - like it!

[rovi57] 14/9/2013 12:15

A lot of folks can't understand how we came to have an oil shortage here in Britain .
~~~
Well, there's a very simple answer.
~~~
Nobody bothered to check the oil.
~~~
We just didn't know we were getting low.
~~~
The reason for that is purely geographical.
~~~
Our OIL is located in The North Sea
~~~
All Our DIPSTICKS are located in Westminster !!!

Any Questions ???

NO? I didn't think so!!

[che7win] 14/9/2013 09:16

Chestnuts,
Sounds promising on both fronts :-)

[chestnuts] 14/9/2013 09:01

che7win

Sorry for O/T but come Monday i think the action will start for tpl sharehoders.

As for IOF holders thats a big fall from 251, their was a lot of hot money, but i know nothing about IOF but for what i have read in the last hr they are expecting some good profits, lets say iof as finished a 4th wave and are about to embark on a 5th wave, ( just an example ASC dropped from 2500 to 1250 its now 5200 in just a few months thats a 4 bagger from here.

[che7win] 14/9/2013 08:39

Chestnuts,
You were spot on with TPL, lets see what happens here..

[chestnuts] 14/9/2013 08:38

I havent been on here for some time, but have been keeping a watch on it, it as formed a triangalation pattern which could go up or down on breakout, but their is a major cycle date on Wednesday, i dont know enough about the company to say which way its going.

[che7win] 14/9/2013 08:19

Naphar,
The company is actively pursuing sites and agreements so to me it looks like a formality.

I know the winters are harsh, but there is no reason they can't do some preparation this year if they get the go ahead soon.
Do you know the exact timeline to build a water pump station and terminal? I hope they have a construction team organised as they will be in demand.

Superg, yes, you've mentioned multiple terminals, that makes sense.

The below link shows the infrastructure going into place around the Bakken, this is a place in its infancy with a long term future ahead:

pipelinesinternational.com/news/fuelling_the_economy_north_americas_pipelines/077221/


On defaulting on debt, its a laughable comment. The company has no debt to start with! If the share price is above 206p when the bond matures, we can issues shares at 206p, otherwise we may just pay the cash back at par with no dilution.

How do we pay the cash back? Simple, either
1. from excess cash generated which I expect to be happening with 14 plants and additional mobile units producing;
2. by issuing shares;
3. by taking out a loan.

I think Gary who was Chief Finance Officer of NASDAQ listed Ascent Solar Technologies should be able to handle such a triviality ;-)

[n3tleylucas] 14/9/2013 02:21

Beg boss to get ten million quid to keep going.

Water? You can't function properly.

Shorts never seem to drop.

Deathbed shorts.

[sandbag] 13/9/2013 23:59

escapetohome,

I sincerely hope you do well but my daughter recently bought me a bottle of Blavod black vodka. I shan't be investing in this company - it was awful.

[supreme mo] 13/9/2013 23:50

Do the numbers at 180 days, but at the hot water price ;-)Ambient water is sold for anything from $1-$1.50. Hot water goes out at $5-$6 pb (correct me if im wrong sg) but costs pb are higher.Take a look at this trucking company coincidentally based in Montana. Heats the water as it is transported to the oilfield. http://www.hotfrackingwater.com/Whilst the numbers are staggering for ambient, the money can be made from hot water is nuts.

[naphar] 13/9/2013 22:57

Che,
Why do you think 270 days water supply next year is achievable? Lance has stated in the past that Montana winters are too harsh to build terminals during winter months. That would mean, unless we get approval early enough to build this year before winter sets in (now looking unlikely?), they are not likely to tart building until Q2 next year. 270 days might therefore be aggressive, but even 180 days supply would be a good outcome.

[che7win] 13/9/2013 22:32

Superg,
The way you lay it out, makes 1200Mt achievable with possible upside depending on initial supply for 2 to 6.


The water rights I find interesting, if they get the rights on the 80000, they should be able to start producing by Spring next year.

So say for 3/4 of the year at 80,000 barrels a day, selling price $1, costs 10 cents.

So say 270 days at = 270 x 80,000 x $0.9 = $19,440,000 or £12,500,000 next year.

That equates to 10p EPS.

If/when the water application is approved, we can expect an extra ~10p EPS next year for cold water supply. That is worth £1 per share at P/E 10.

Surely that would add 50p to the share price on the day of announcement, certainly at this price there is an opportunity if the water announcement comes out of the blue? I will be ready to pounce.

Based on that profit, we could gear up the balance sheet to accelerate iodine production further, worth a thought. This business would be throwing off cash.

Water is not priced in at all yet the business is ready to proceed:

"Finalised agreements for the terminal's physical location, the necessary flow line right of ways, and pump stations have been completed. Additionally, the Company has been in contact with several oil and gas operators, service companies, and trucking companies to obtain additional letters of intent to purchase water."

[n3tleylucas] 13/9/2013 22:22

"They need to buy back to lock in profits"

Or just wait until this defaults on the debt and goes bust.

[superg1] 13/9/2013 21:56

I've updated the header to compare what is shown in the interims compared to recent forecasts.

Basically they want .85 mt average for Q3, which matches what the production was for May when io2 was on 18.7k bpd. However the do say they expect new brine to have be piped in.

For July they said-:

'In July the Company processed at more consistent flow rates than in the previous quarter. This has resulted in a higher daily average of iodine produced.'

So it would seem Q3 production should be fine.

[superg1] 13/9/2013 20:51

che

The ppm area can be found in the north west Oklahoma college project where they tested ppm for the area in conjunction with Arysta. It came out around 300ppm with something like a 5 to 8ppm variance among samples.

30k bpd at 300ppm 90% yields gives over 450mt, so no doubt that's why IOF quoted that figure.

We can only go on the facts out there and that is what was turned up, way back to back up what IOF said. Iochem were on 300 to 400 so there is no real reason to doubt that some plants will be 400mt plus units.

We'll have to wait and see what those abnormally high comments mean in terms of bpd and ppm as and when such sites appear.

[che7win] 13/9/2013 20:24

Superg,
Nice post, just to highlight your mention of plant io#2 as 400MT+,
IOF quotes the following capabilities:

www.iofina.com/mid-stream-iodine-business/about

"Our WET® IOsorb™ plants are capable of producing between 50mt to over 450mt of iodine per annum each, depending on flow and iodine concentrations at these target locations. Locations with abnormally high concentrations will produce even more iodine than stated above."

[engelo] 13/9/2013 18:45

SG: thanks for your analysis. Think you are correct that some instis think of iodine production as hard rock mining, based on the Chile model, so CAPEX payback is of the order of several years. If they knew the CAPEX position here they might get a shock. Perhaps they read 3 months somewhere and thought it was a typo :-)

ALW (8201): exactly. If Ennis have some of their short transaction at 140ish then it won't take long for their profits to start melting away.

edit: thanks for advice about DMA.

[engelo] 13/9/2013 18:35

If Ennis were quoted we could short them :-)

Perhaps one of the larger investors here could ask for a quote for £3m worth. Don't think my broker would take it seriously enough :-)

[superg1] 13/9/2013 18:26

Pc

No that is done but it's a fair amount to cover, especially when things get tight.

I'm told Enis normally play the long game. At the time of their first short interest there was general sentiment in the market against mining stocks and a number of funds took a bearish view on such stocks.

If you look at the two public companies in iodine SQM and Sirocco their charts show they went down.

SQM were on highs and got hit with the Lithium tender scandal, dropping revenues in other sectors, and then the big hit re potash.

For Sirocco, their capex and opex is too high and they have had problems with their plant.

They are mining companies. Fat prophets did a sell half advice on IOF around the 70p mark based on the very high capex needed for mining companies. It seems the a few think IOF are a mining company with the associated high costs.

Sirocco spend this year $34m hope to gain 388mt. That is what io2 will do for it's $1.5m ish spend, opex $10 to $15 v Sirocco $34 to $38.

To use Sirocco as an example to calculate IOF potential would mean figure skewing on a grand scale to the actual, a bit like an accountant filling in his own golf score.

Since that the turn away from miners things seem to have settled down and for now positive sentiment in general seems to be around.

Just pan back through the daily data using the previous day tab



There seems to be a lot more bits and pieces of closing positions, than opening them in recent times.

If IOF demonstrate delivery over the next few weeks and months then to remain short seems a high risk bet imo

[alwilliamson] 13/9/2013 18:10

Pc, as it stands ennis have made nothing. They need to buy back to lock in profits. I would love to see them go long and make money on the way back up. Much kudos would be virtually sent by me if they did. They would have called it absolutely right. Though for them to ride the wave back up and make the same money, they would need to buy back their 1.5m and then buy another 1.5m.... ;-)

[pcjoe] 13/9/2013 17:49

Not too up on this stuff but I suppose Ennis could start going long to protect against any possible downside as they start to unwind the short - Are longs (like short positions) notifiable? - Or am I just typing b.ll.ks

If smart Ennis might make as much money going up as they made going down.....