Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[gadolinium] 16/9/2013 08:50

Engelo,
nice demo on nitrogen triiodide, an allegory for IOF's potentially explosive share price perhaps?

[skasher094] 16/9/2013 08:38

start of frizzling shorters

[superg1] 16/9/2013 08:33

Yes Pc

Way off the actual that's coming, I've warned them enough times, I'm the helpful type.

[malachey] 16/9/2013 08:30

A bit of action on level two this morning

[pcjoe] 15/9/2013 23:29

SG - I presume thats the filtered one putting up these figures you just quoted? - I reckon he`s just a wind up merchant - In reality He`ll have emptied his piggy bank on IOF - No ones that stupid.....

[hitsha3] 15/9/2013 23:21

If everything goes to plan then where do you think we will be in next 18 months.( regarding share price £10.00,£20.00, £30.00 ).

[scrutable] 15/9/2013 23:20

DTG
I have great admiration for one time Olympic flying ace Executive Chairman and founder CEO _Philip Meeson, and have watched the company put on muscle for ten years. The share price now contains 50% cash and the shares can be bought for x 2.5 times cash flow. Incredible

DTG seems to have hit a sweet spot this year with the share price growth ranking 2 amongst peer group companies (above £250m cap) on the LSE after Xaar - (not counting unproven recovery share Thomas Cook).

The chart is signaling a strong buy from the support line low

[superg1] 15/9/2013 22:44

Just mentioning it due to the way the market reacts.

ATUK reported a slip of a payment into the next financial year well in advance and that revenues would be down.

When the news already stated came, it took a hit, but flying high now after a daft market reaction.

[scrutable] 15/9/2013 22:31

sg
The bad news to come in the next fortnight is still consistent with a bullish outlook. Excuse the oxymoron.

In 2012 Green Dragon Gas (GDG) the one time parent was the only client. Green Dragon Gas got GDL to drill 50 wells in 2011, then 90 in 2012 - split probably 35 (H1) + 55 (H2, )then in H1 2013 only 26.

It is well known that GDG stopped drilling in H1 during their $42m law suit against Phillips-Conoco (to decide title re drilling rights, )but won a stay of execution and a new hearing and are assumed to have resumed drilling in H2. I have penciled in between 45-75 wells for H2 and have explained the logic for this on the GDL board.

At the same time GDL's bold sally forth to break into the Chinese market for CBM gas, dominated by the two supermajors CNPC and Sinopec, had by end August secured firm contracts for an additional 79 wells and conditional contracts for another 80 subject to successful testing. GDL have the capacity in 32 rigs to drill these 159 wells in 170 days (calculations elsewhere).

At the worst GDL will catch up by drilling 60 or so in H2. At the best they will substantially outperform this year and redouble in 2014. IMO you have completely underestimated the potential and probable execution. I believe that the share price which has begun to lift off the August bottom will continue the recovery until the imminent H1 RNS. More comment thereafter.

Note that the share price of parent company GDG has last week reached a 12 month high and recovered 62% from the mid July litigation-in-progress low - putting it in amongst the top 8 LSE peer group by size.

Note also that
1) GDL's drilling skills and gas production results are proven way beyond those of indigenous and foreign rivals in China;
2) that they are continually surpassing their own records ;
3) that revenue, profit, and cash flow have been expanding strongly until the law suit brought a temporary slow down before it was successful;
4) that China is seriously in arrears of targets for CBM production in their Five Year Plan and desperately need to raise their game
5) that the company have shifted their HQ to Singapore and are planning to list soon on the Singapore exchange prior to expanding in India and Indonesia
6) that GDLhave attracted and secured the services of US drilling professionals from Weatherford, Schlumberger, and Halliburton
7) they already employ 700 company trained technicians and are well on the way to complete training their first teams of Indian engineering graduates, preparatory to announcing contracts in India and spudding by end-2013

[superg1] 15/9/2013 20:13

7 trading days left :-)

[superg1] 15/9/2013 20:10

What ???? £5m in 2014 and £10m in 2015.

io2 will do more than that in both years, why are you not including the other plants?

Iof intend to add io3 within weeks, then up to io6 by the end of the year, what about adding them to your calculations.

Io2 is a 400mt plus plant all day long once up to speed. If we consider the $15 opex that gives $14m profit on io2 once it's running at good rates.

On the figures given so far, £5m profit for 2014 would mean, $1.3m profit from each plant.

Or put another way, based on opex each of the plants only doing 37 mt each per year.

See it doesn't work out, add in the other plants and try again, but start by upping your io2 forecast first.

IOF said they will be getting new brine, we have explained the drilling boom going on.

I do find it highly amusing that 2 years back you scoffed at the thought of it being worth 30p, and now forecast it's worth more than double that.

[joeywald] 15/9/2013 18:34

I mentioned DTG back in June when they were in the 190's. They have since risen to the 270's but recently have fallen back to 220p. Upside potential is enormous as we go into the autumn with the interims and trading update due in November.

[orslega] 15/9/2013 17:08

yes, most of them don't have clue.....anal, best describes their efforts much of the time...lol

Roll on 25th....

[engelo] 15/9/2013 17:02

Orslega: thanks for reminder of LB's words. V optimistic for 25th et seq like yourself: only a week to go now, and the purple touch paper is smouldering.

Pre announcement of CEO and (lap of the gods) water news would give additional impetus. A couple of weeks ago would have said that reaching the interims without either of these would be odds of about 1000 to 1, now only about 10 to 1 I suppose.

Spent a few secs trying to understand your abbreviation 'ysts' but think I've got it :-)

[orslega] 15/9/2013 16:43

am looking forward to the interims, should then be able to get a much better handle on full years production and likely exit rates...seems alls going well by all accounts, snippets here etc...in which case that First Columbus buy and target price of £2.39 issued last month will have to be quickly re-rated..

..at the same time FC will also need to reconsider their expectation that "revenues to almost double in 2014", which implies annual production of just 480mt.....if the estimated exit rate (based on the current production data hopefully divulged in interim statement) can be extrapolated to get close to 1,200mt at 31/12/2013, as suggested by SG in the header, it might get them and a few other anal ysts scratching their heads...lol.

("First Columbus has reduced its revenues estimate this year to December to US$30.5mln, based on 240 tonnes of Iodine, but expects revenues to almost double in 2014 with considerably more potential longer term")

So if that's the case the so called "ping effect" could be upon us.

indeed, Lance Baller alluded to the ping some 5 months ago in e-mail to me (dated 13/4/2013)..."in the coming months"...an e-mail I like to read again from time to time, lol


"We will in due course but currently our rollout it is important to not show the world as we are changing the industry forever. In the coming months we will be so far ahead it will not matter."

[freshvoice] 15/9/2013 13:25

Engalo

An old schoolboy device for painting on doorknockers.

Mix iodine and Strong ammonia

Dry VERY CAREFULLY AND IN VERY SMALL AMOUNTS. A PIN HEAD IS ENOUGH.

[neddo] 15/9/2013 12:02

qfi and fastjet looking interesting?

[engelo] 15/9/2013 11:55

gadolinium: overheard a ref to nitrogen triiodide the other day, a new one on me. Explosive news.... but absolutely no commercial application ;-(

hxxp://richannel.org/modern-alchemy-detonating-nitrogen-triiodide

[timbo237] 15/9/2013 10:39

O/T - Just bought a kindle fire - anybody know of a free app which gives real time prices for UK shares? Many thanks in advance.

[freshvoice] 15/9/2013 09:36

See Nutter is keeping late hours again, wonder what he is worrying about?

Local store run out of lager again?

[ammons] 15/9/2013 02:30

How's BEM going? Educate me. Ta in advance.

[n3tleylucas] 15/9/2013 02:25

I expect good growth here, always have. £5m this, £10m next.

£5m will be missed by a mile.

£10m will be missed also.

£5m 2014, £10m 2015 is now my estimate.

The stock is worth between 37.5p and 75p in 2013, ie now.

It's a time/risk thing, go read about it. STRONG SELL doesn't mean poor growth.

Understand this, and you'll be okay.

Grasp it. Don't be thick.

[superg1] 14/9/2013 21:38

Scrut

I know we are ay apposite ends re GDL but did they not report that the revenue will be poor etc in that last rns in the coming results.

We are all entitled to our opinions of course.

Yes I know results are backward looking but this is what they said on 29th August-:

Notwithstanding the positive transition to a diverse client base, our historically predominant client curtailed its drilling program which will negatively impact our first half results. Whilst the success achieved in diversifying away from a single client has been a success, the time taken to fully capitalise on the increased customer base will not be able to offset the effects of losses from the drilling campaign from the first customer.

[superg1] 14/9/2013 21:04

Scrut

A strong statement again, and not without reason I suspect.

I'm not so sure about the burst forth in spring comment, more like an Indian summer that some failed to see coming, me included :-)