Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 25/7/2013 13:14

July 28th wasn't it for an update on the water project? Only a few days to go. I'm sure it must have been signed off by now. Just got to be put in the post! Then theres IO#2 brine feeds, which were "imminent" at the agm, so Im pretty sure they are hooked up by now, IO#3 should be approximately half way built, with another month to go to complete the plant, hook ups to brine sources and a test period i expect to make sure it all functions as intended. A new chairman/CEO will be a relief to the market but not a biggie for now.

[n3tleylucas] 25/7/2013 12:55

Yeah, similar chart summary to my last one mate. You still haven't got around to using jing yet? Pity.

[uppompeii] 25/7/2013 12:55

In fairness though Bogg1e, its probably as useful at this point in time as all the calculations, profjections etc, yet to materialise, that are posted on here.

I'm afraid in spite of all the hard work people put in to get to their £8.00, £15.00 price etc, none of it counts a jot if the next and subsequent figures come in below the massive expectation this share and its investors have set it. Holders talk as if these are already happening or a given, well currently the company is keeping schtum, and I don't believe for a second this "under the radar" malarchy, I would have expected an update if not now then in the very near future.

[the librarian] 25/7/2013 12:52

Great post Bogg1e, the volatility and trading up and down drive me batty :-), but patience will out!

[bogg1e] 25/7/2013 12:41

TA is great, the problem with it is that it works best with large cap, high liquidity, well understood companies (ie transparent), usually to be found in the ftse 350. IOF has low volume liquidity as far as i can tell with most shares locked away by directors, II's etc. Transparency is out of the window for now, just try to calculate 2013 earnings on the data available (im close to giving up). TA isn't designed to deal with the scale of price swings that can happen to companies in such a position, hence the massive fall from 200-113p. What is certain is that for the long term investor the rewards are potentially massive and when it gets there, then TA will start to prove a more reliable tool for Iofina traders.

[ijpax] 25/7/2013 12:40

Titus, I always appreciate your insights. Please continue providing your thoughts.

[roger melly] 25/7/2013 12:37

Likewise Diggulden

[malachey] 25/7/2013 12:29

Oh dear, let's not do the TA bashing thing AGAIN (seems to happen a lot more often when the analysis is mixed/negative - funny that).

Still, you did just teach me something roger: it seems that as a non-premium member I can only vote posts up and not down. Rather one-sided system...


PS. The intended vote down was purely for use of the 'word' simples.

[diggulden] 25/7/2013 12:27

The first sensible thing to come out of your mouth Roger!

[uppompeii] 25/7/2013 12:09

senden11 - the optimist in me agrees with you.. I tend to post cautiously as there are plenty of enthusiasts...lets hope you're right.

[engelo] 25/7/2013 11:58

Thanks Titus for a detailed explanation of your analysis in words that the non-expert can relate to. Interesting that you analyse things differently for those who bought way back and those who bought recently/this year. Surely the risks of losing your some of your long term profit is the same as running into a loss from recent investments?

In other words even if you've held for a long time and are sitting on good profits, don't relax! Imo you should always analyse a holding from the perspective of 'would I buy these now?'

In the absence of news/events, I can see that TA would be a useful guide.

However we can reasonably assume here that a deal of news is imminent, and when it comes surely the TA is trumped by whether the news is good or bad?

If bad, the wave C scenario would come into play, but I can't use the wave C scenario to sell out ahead of it.

However if good, this would blow wave C out of existence, and we'd have a fresh scenario on which to base analysis.

Presumably from the TA viewpoint there could be a resistance point to the current downtrend around 170 in sympathy with the April low, but this is not strong as the June 'hysteria' low has been interposed?

[bogg1e] 25/7/2013 11:34

Nothing stupid about buying into a share thats rising with a great future, even if at its height of 250p it had a p/e (based on forward 2013 earnings)of 50 - eeeeek!

[warmsun] 25/7/2013 11:19

Good post Titus, thank you...

I also like the bit "For those unfortunate or stupid enough, like myself, to start investing in IOF this year" (it forced a wry smile)...I started buying last year but have also bought heavily this year....you are not alone :)

[titus10] 25/7/2013 11:01

I have hesitated to post chart indications here recently, having learned that on BBs what is wanted is confirmation of conviction, which is not what realistic technical analysis is about.

In earlier posts I suggested that IOF completed a primary 5-wave bull trend in May this year, which is generally followed by a 3-wave (conventionally called A-B-C) - i.e. down-up-down - correction in conventional Elliott Wave Analysis.

I also noted that a proportionately-scaled (i.e. logarithmic) chart showed that although the 24th June bear raid penetrated the long-term up-trend channel since the 6th Oct 2011 bottom intra-day, I did not consider that significant, as on a closing daily price basis prices remain well inside the 'confidence' lines surrounding the mean up-trend line.

That remains the case, so for the long-term investor one may say that, for now at least, it's a Hold on technical grounds.

For those unfortunate or stupid enough, like myself, to start investing in IOF this year, a closer inspection of the shorter-term outlook may be warranted.

The Intermediate-term Sell signal on 24th May I reported at the time from my analysis was duly followed by a sharp reaction (Wave A), a part recovery (Wave B) and now a second down-move (Wave C) appears to be underway. All classic stuff.

There is possibly some lateral support/resistance around 1.70 from which the main up-trend could resume if up-coming news turns the trick. Otherwise, the simplest estimation may be for a C Wave similar to the A Wave (using closing day prices) to terminate around the 1.20 level. It could, of course, be lower - the final wave in a pattern is often the longest.

Other analyses, for example using Fibonacci numbers or Gann ratios may produce different estimates (and the most pessimistic may even see a Head & Shoulders top having formed), so this is just a rule of thumb view on my part.

Having, for better or worse, bought heavily into the story created around this share, I'd love to see it turn up from the present level, buoyed up perhaps by good operations news and the ISA change.

We shall see...

[senden11] 25/7/2013 10:28

I don't disagree with those points, uppompeii, but as one of the many long-termers who have fully paid-up shares, I am both hopeful and prefer to be optimistic based on the information which has been provided. Many on this board have been openly praying for news to pick the share price back up and my point is merely that with the company apparently unwilling to reveal any solid news just yet, the ISA timing may well imo provide a temporary spike and appease some - no matter how short-lived that spike may be.

[plasybryn] 25/7/2013 10:11

Still no reply to my maiden "e" mail. Is that what I can expect or do others find they eventually reply?

[eeza] 25/7/2013 10:05

And of course not helped by the Bod's addiction to shooting themselves through the foot and employing the village idiot to write RNS's.

[uppompeii] 25/7/2013 09:42

senden11 - I'd like to think it was a solid AIM stock but the price movement recently tells me that its not. Probably still too many geared too high and the cascade of selling the other week shows that as with any other share long termers can become keen sellers the same as anyone. I'm not expecting fireworks on 5th August and I'd be surprised if any company made decisions on its progress to tie in with an alteration in the investing allowances in the UK. Plus its obvious from the fall that there are still many many positions open on spread bets, of course tax free already.
Until solid numbers and progress are published, while not built on sand exactly, its very vulnerable to any delays or disappointing figures causing a disproportionate collapse again.

[tackems] 25/7/2013 09:08

OK, hands up, who said 10 days for news? (said tongue in cheek as I am in for the long haul!)

[matrixtrader] 25/7/2013 09:06

i would guess at $51 per kg

[supreme mo] 25/7/2013 06:40

Sky I would guess higher than $45 per kg - at a guess more say $50-$55. Might be wrong of course.The mind boggles!

[bogg1e] 25/7/2013 00:16

Thanks naphar

hxxp://www.jazdchemicals.com/chemyellowpages/company/Iofina-Chemical.htm?categoryPath=Bulk-Chemical%2FElements-Minerals%2FIodine&supplierId=13907570

This link is like the yellow pages of chemical companies, quite a number under iodine. The link takes you to the iofina section.