Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[wizard2020] 24/9/2014 09:04

Still no RNS confirming Mr Bigs publicised purchase on the 18th - could it be an oversight?

[roundup] 24/9/2014 09:02

Alpha. It might be a good idea for you to step back also; that is until you have something worth while to say.

[alphacharlie] 24/9/2014 08:10

No need che - you post a lot of good stuff . . .

It's just that some of us get fed up with all these predictions that constantly fall short.

[che7win] 24/9/2014 07:59

Kattatogaru/Alpha,
Your posts 24784/24788,

I was merely progressing my thouughts from Bobs earlier post, so I used IOF's September prediction and Bobs October expectation to show possible ranges.

As you both seem to think my posts are illogical, I'll take a step back and let you post.

[superg1] 24/9/2014 07:57

I think there is a point some forget.

Everyone would like to see improved production rates and 40 to 50mt hit, with a desire for 50 plus in the coming months.

If they achieve that then I believe the supply agreements comment will 'kick in'.

I note the 1.7mt per day target, so 50 plus may be the trigger.

They managed 40 and at that time.

io1 record but it's a 1 mt per week plant.

io2 record. (pre SWD upgrade)

io3 limited brine.

io4 did not meet reach where they wanted it to be, limited brine.


Io4 now has that booster pump and a lot more brine.

io2 far less oil and heading back to higher brine rates.

5 and 6 didn't exist, they are both talked of as good sites.

So 50mt plus with a decent run should be in range this year.

[alphacharlie] 24/9/2014 07:39

ammons - my post 24785 and your reply 24793 of yesterday evening.

I do agree with what you said about che’s comment on IO5 and IO6. You weren’t being ‘picky’, as I put it, any more than kattatogaru was re his 'output progression' observation. It was just me trying to be witty . . .

[rogerbridge] 23/9/2014 20:55

Fingers and toes crossed.
At least I am not invested in Tesco.

[bobsworth] 23/9/2014 20:41

Yes and looking forward to when all the tweaking is complete.

Fingers crossed the latest tweaks will produce lots of iodine.

Plant 2: SWD unit upgrade resulting in 98% of oil removed from brine.
Plant 4: Booster system upgrade on SWD delivering 30,000+ barrels of brine a day
Plant 5 & 6: Design changes made to enable full production

Can understand now what Lance meant when once he emailed back saying "Technology is a great business if good but needs to be refreshed as always with a growing business. The key is in the details. Once those details are done good things will come".

[woodpeckers] 23/9/2014 19:54

aamons, isn't it a question of the sites that are good rather than the plants? Presumably the plants themselves are getting better all the time ie they are tweaking the technology. I think the point is that 5 and 6 are well positioned so should do well.

[ammons] 23/9/2014 18:29

Sorry alpha but I am not being picky. To me it makes sense to call any individual plant "good" when it has proved itself. 5 and 6 have not proven anything despite the published claim that IO5 was "running very well" when it could not have been if the idea is to produce good quantities of iodine. Would you say that a car is running very well without having road tested it? The engine sounds good idling in the garage but I'll make my mind up when its moving and doing what it is meant to do. I don't accept anything regarding this company at face value any more. When the evidence is there, fine.

[nellyb] 23/9/2014 17:10

Arlington Chetwynd Talbot
23 Sep'14 - 09:37 - 24774 of 24790 0 1

Wizard2020,

I fear your timing is horrendously wrong. I do expect this to double, but sadly from a much much lower level. This has only just begun its latest bear phase, sub 45 might sound good... how does sub 10p sound?

The real horror will be revealed in the finals, so just a question of how astute the market is at discounting what's coming... not very atm.

a c talbot - read his post again - ffs.

[jjoshaw] 23/9/2014 16:32

Optimism,here, being the triumph of hope over experience,I'll go for a slight increase in production offset by a rising trend in excuses.

[bocker01] 23/9/2014 16:02

I suppose you have to decide whether you believe that a 50% increase in "operating" plants from 4 to 6 will lead to an increase in excuses or in output. I am in the output camp especially as IO2 must have done the thick end of 25 tons out of the record of 40 on its own.

[alphacharlie] 23/9/2014 15:38

Also 'sorry' Bobsworth because I therefore have it wrong too in linking the 'rising output progression' to you when it was actually Che7win that made the somewhat illogical observation in HIS post 24780 as a comment to you.

[kattatogaru] 23/9/2014 15:24

Sorry sd have been Che7win.

[bobsworth] 23/9/2014 15:01

kattatogaru - Bobsworth @24780!!!!!!!!!!!!!!????

[alphacharlie] 23/9/2014 14:50

ammons - 24783 - C7W, how has the company come to the conclusion that IO5 and IO6 are decent plant when they haven't actually done anything yet?

kattatogaru - 24784 - Bobsworth @24780 you can't include October figures in a progression with confirmed outputs that ends September!

Oh come on now! You guys are being just a bit too picky . . .

[kattatogaru] 23/9/2014 14:16

Bobsworth @24780 you can't include October figures in a progression with confirmed outputs that ends September!

By my rough calculations, assuming that we hit 27.5 T in September (midpoint of their recent estimate), and that we can manage a roughly linear increase in production (assuming all goes well and that glitches are progressively sorted out), we would hit roughly the midpoint of this year's new production targets if we get 34, 39 and 45 T in the next 3 months. In order to meet the minimum target of 325 T we need to hit 31, 37, 42 t in the next 3 months. If we're lower than 31 in October, it's squeaky bum time for meeting targets as a whole and my confidence in the new mgt team will be seriously shaken.

[ammons] 23/9/2014 13:35

Freshvoice, you for got the one about the unexpected diversion of brine water!

C7W, how has the company come to the conclusion that IO5 and IO6 are decent plant when they haven't actually done anything yet? And the average has not continued upwards. 40/30/24/23 is not upwards.

[che7win] 23/9/2014 12:50

Bob, Yes, agreed.

[bobsworth] 23/9/2014 12:40

che7win
Agree with you on the order of the plants production and that 4,5 & 6 with good brines will be a significant boost to Iofina's production.
That said, plant 2's performance still remains their key to hitting the year end target.

When you look back over 2014 you can see that apart from May it's been impacted on every month of the year.

Here is the yrs tally on IO#2 to date:
In Q1 it was cold weather impacted
In April IOF#2 was shut down for 13 days (unplanned maintenance)
In June IOF#2 was impacted by severe electrical storms
In July IOF#2 was affected by significant brine interruptions caused by excessive fracking
In Aug IOF#2 was shut down as a result of SWD unit upgrade.

With the SWD unit upgrade now complete and 98% of the oil being removed from the brine and volumes already back upto 70%, plant 2 production should be good from now on.

If that happens, which Lance is certainly focused on, then together with the additional plants of 5 & 6 + 4, now on good brines, that revised yr end target should be within their reach.