Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[engelo] 06/5/2014 15:22

Fest: "Like Petejay, I do wonder what news we can expect short term which could at least stabilise the SP?"

Agreement with Chesa on Plan B brine feeds is critical and probably not far off.

Placing of order(s) for 1 or two mobiles.

Iodine price starts to rise again.

edit: and there's water dripping away in the background.

[orslega] 06/5/2014 14:32

GMP Securities, couple of snippets from their buy note dated 28th April 2014 ie after revised 400MT production target but before Mr B's convertible $5m...(sorry no link available)

"We retain our BUY rating, which is based on Iofina's structural cost advantage over Chilean supply, which accounts for 60% of the market. Production costs are significantly lower at $20–25/kg compared to $30–45/kg in Chile.


"Valuation: We arrive at a target price of 65p from a multiples based range of 64-65p and DCF of 67p, assuming a flat iodine price of $40/kg in 2014 and $45/kg from 2015 onwards. Iofina could 'grow' into a higher multiple than the 7x 2015E P/E estimates imply. Chilean producer SQM trades at 15x 2015 P/E on consensus estimates that assume no growth over three years"

Once Iofina start ramping up sustainable production sentiment should quickly change - after all, SQM with no growth prospects on p/e of 15 and with all its troubles! Something to look forward here for Iofina imo....

[orslega] 06/5/2014 14:04

News, profits? Today we are told.....

"Plants IO#1, IO#2 and IO#3 were profitable for the period. IO#4 is anticipated to be profitable for May, after running continuously for a month."

Patience will see some serious rewards imo.

[killerbudgie] 06/5/2014 13:58

Profit. The only thing the market is interested in is if IOF are making money. So far there is no news on this. Any news on sales would be a help.

[woodpeckers] 06/5/2014 13:56

I know it's been said a million times but the current share price really shouldn't bother you unless you are thinking of selling near term. What is much more important is the news on production which tells us the direction the share price is ultimately heading.

This mornings rns was a breakthrough in that it showed that the company is aware that it needs to be more transparent. With Lance back in the driving seat giving us regular production reports which, based on todays should continue to improve, the market will soon have to accept that Iofina is back on track and the share price will have to reflect that.

Good to remember that we have got in at the beginning here. We are investing in a young company with ground breaking patented technology in an industry that is otherwise struggling, so the upside potential and subsequent rewards are enormous.

[festario] 06/5/2014 13:36

Like Petejay, I do wonder what news we can expect short term which could at least stabilise the SP?Nothing has done the trick thus far.

[joestalin] 06/5/2014 13:19

I just topped up at 38p - short term share price fluctuation provides a bargain.

Either you think they are undervalued or you think that charts can only go in one direction based on what they did previously. I favour the former, needless to say.

[che7win] 06/5/2014 13:19

I may have interpreted io1 update wrongly, I guess it must have been up part of the month of April.

Also they mention Io2 maintenance was the yearly event, so we can deduce its yearly maintenance takes 6 days roughly.

[cyberbub] 06/5/2014 13:12

Petejay, because a time when you feel desperate ('capitulation point') is always exactly the wrong time to sell, in my experience at least... and is usually a time for LTHs to buy more...NAI of course

[petejay] 06/5/2014 13:05

I am a long term holder It appears that every rns good or bad reduces the share price by 10%. At this rate with updates every month the price will be nil in a years timeGive me a reason to hold onto my shares please

[orslega] 06/5/2014 13:03

boggle - that's not what it said in RNS...looks like some production materialised....exit rate for April...


IO#1 Production Plant

Due to necessary and minor upgrades, IO#1 was temporarily closed during the period. We are pleased to report that, as a result of the upgrades, production at IO#1 has increased by over 25 per cent. This addition was afforded by the successful completion of increased trucked water by the Operator. The plant is now running at record capacity. The IO#1 plant had a promising exit-rate for the month that is anticipated throughout May.

[bogg1e] 06/5/2014 12:56

Theres an irritating error in the update. It states that Io1-3 were profitable for the period. How can Io1 be profitable in April if it was shut down for maintenance?

[cyberbub] 06/5/2014 12:51

IMO it's a smart move to ditch the expensive hired power plant, which made sense for the commissioning phase and might have made sense short-term if there was enough brine supply - but clearly there isn't so they might as well send it back and wait a couple of months for mains power connection. I don't see why that decision seems to be a talking point? Perfectly rational and shows that Lance is taking decisive action.GLA NAI

[che7win] 06/5/2014 12:42

superg,
good header update, one thing I noted:

You suggest IO1 was doing 3 mt in April, but I think it was down all of April?

That would mean 3-5 produced an extra 3mt somewhere - probably plant 4 even though it took time to dial it in?

[bogg1e] 06/5/2014 12:39

Fest, the BoD told us each plant would have back up if needed, but would run off the grid and so for the most part I assume we neednt worry about power costs as they will already be included in the stated opex figures in the yearly results. Pods on the other hand are likely to require their own backup power, which I assume will be more expensive than running off the grid, however we also know that the overall design of the pod runs at a lower opex per kilo than a standard plant. Agreed $100k per month is expensive, but its only short term and shouldnt be added to opex costs per plant going forward.

[festario] 06/5/2014 12:23

A very wise friend of mine (and fellow IOF sufferer) said to me today; 'perhaps it be better for IOF to stop producing Iodine, and start renting out generators'Hard to disagree.

[spike_1] 06/5/2014 12:17

Solar generator: I hardly think so - wouldn't work at night without extremely large batteries, would take up an enormous space, AND, the RNS doss talk about fuel costs ;0)

I would imagine generators in that part of the world are kept very busy, and would be big business with big profits: it is after all the oil business.

Best wishes - Mike

[diggulden] 06/5/2014 11:48

It was a temporary gig I think Fest, until mains was connected which was anticipated to be early July time. It's a massive solar generator so I would expect it to be quite substantial in terms of cost.

[festario] 06/5/2014 11:46

Dunno Sandbag. Neither do you to be fair.It sounds like a very large and strange cost. £1.2m per annum per plant to be included in the Opex?

[sandbag] 06/5/2014 11:30

Fest, It'll be a bloody big one and that price will include delivery, removal and diesel.

[n3tleylucas] 06/5/2014 11:24

Below is a post that got 30 thumbs up. If only you 30 knew what is really going on here. You will, when it's too late. Then you'll remember this post;

[festario] 06/5/2014 11:21

A very puzzled Fester...... £100,000 a month to rent a generator????I'm definitely in the wrong business.

[superg1] 06/5/2014 11:18

Freddi

Looked more like either forced sells or completely fed up with it all sells.

No order to the main sells, so I suspect forced sells in part.

[n3tleylucas] 06/5/2014 11:14

SHONNY's header post been quietly buried? No surprise.

[diggulden] 06/5/2014 11:05

Fairly normal for IOF to have a 15% intra-day swing these days.