Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[molatovkid] 03/4/2014 13:49

Arron Banks

[superg1] 03/4/2014 13:48

Oh

At least they can always look on the Brightside (sorry couldn't resist)

[woodpeckers] 03/4/2014 13:44

Does anyone know what our market cap has to be in order for us to re-enter the AIM100? I can't find anything that shows them listed in highest to lowest mc in order to work it out, but hopefully we're not too far off and presumably the funds that sold would then have to buy back.

[freshvoice] 03/4/2014 13:36

Nearly 2m gone through on the ? Col. Today, nearly all below m price. Rest clearing out? Can"t be many more left surely?

[scrutable] 03/4/2014 13:26

Calmar

A fall on the day from 190p to 150p but in between the share price touched 112p. Was it a coincidence - or intuition, or did one or three know already, that during the previous 8 trading days the Sp had already fallen from 245p to 190P? . Deja vue?

[superg1] 03/4/2014 13:24

Fest

That fly in the bottle thing has rattled you lol

Just don't like the daft stuff. I think your attitude to that may have changed having read another thread ;-). Investing no matter what share is good, as long as we don't do 300 on the same one etc.


Perhaps someone should list the ones mentioned here on the tips thread and I'll stick them in the header there for reference only, not a comp just reference. I don't ignore tips just struggle to find the time to look them up.

[calmar1992] 03/4/2014 13:12

Anyone with a good memory.... How much market capitalisation did we roughly lose as a result of lance initially stepping down?

[superg1] 03/4/2014 13:11

cyberbub
3 Apr'14 - 12:29 - 18292 of 18297 1 0Moderate | Ban


Why would someone keep their lips sealed about a prospect in which they have presumably taken a stake??

To answer the question. I have a position in none of them just digging

One has about 95% of the shares tied up, and buying in small quantities would send the price nuts, and it would jump around like a pogo stick.

Another looks to be tight on shares as any buys in small amounts have shifted it about 30% in a week, gawd knows what serious interest would do.

Same goes for another.


I saw ATUK way back and out it on the tips thread, and took a small position with the intent to buy a few more after a bit more digging.

The blighters here liked it too, and it was up 50% before I could say boo. I didn't know shares were tight.

So now I watch the trade and price behaviour, before saying a word (and likely never too) as it can turn into chaos in no time.

Folks invested think there is a news leak, so top up, and so it gets worse. Then it hits the riser news, and the herd charges in. That's what happened on ATUK (cloudbuy) it was 60p in no time v a 6/7p bounce point. Took my profits there which would have been a lot more had I not mentioned it.

Generally they are all very high risk but the herd pay no attention to that.


Happy to mention shares where there is liquidity, and have done like PRG and OBT which I think will do well, have some in one but not the other

[bogg1e] 03/4/2014 13:10

cyber, i havent taken a stake in fdev, all my investable funds are in QFI and IOF. Also im not convinced that my info is entirely accurate although the case is compelling, so i wouldn't want to mislead anyone. But if i were to give a tip other than QFI and IOF it would be fdev. If anyones interested its up to them to work out whether its a good investment or not.

[scrutable] 03/4/2014 13:05

Boggle

By the time the Tip sheets have got hold of a candidate share the manipulators are in and logic no longer works.

My approach is to study share price performance to find innovation and noteworthy marketing skills among relatively unknown companies by evaluating their technology and customer response to it.

I filter RNS reports and company web sites, particularly presentations, and create a large watch list portfolio. Sharescope allows you to monitor criteria by the several dozen, instantly ranking the outperformers.

Over the next 12-18 months companies stand out where the news flow indicates
points of inflection to come in Trading Updates and later on financial results. Under valuations become clearer.

I have come to realise that real time market performance of the product or service anticipates RNS of financial results. This allows me to get well ahead, 6-24 months ahead of tip sheet recognition.

I spotted IOF in 2008 when they were just beginning to trundle around with their
first two mobile units, GBO when the Greek economy began to collapse, AFR when oil production was a quarter of the current level. I have been watching Nanoco
for 18 months but still feel the investment is only just reaching the best moment to invest. A good example of a growth company in the making reaching the moment of inflexion, which I missed under my nose last November after watching for three years, was PURE

Most fast movers take 2-4 years to show their capacity to sprint. The less time you allot to reach a significant share price growth target, the closer you get to betting on horses.

r

[scrutable] 03/4/2014 13:05

Apologies again

[n3tleylucas] 03/4/2014 13:01

Hey SCRUT,

The best thing for you to do is keep it to yourself, stop posting, make a lot of money and keep quiet about it.

[neddo] 03/4/2014 12:55

nothing wrong with that fest, most of the long term guys on this bb are honest?

[engelo] 03/4/2014 12:49

Thanks crosseyed for financial analysis (and also MB and che).

Interesting that IOF Chem which has provided essential flexibility to date (plus smoke and mirrors too) should be seen now as slowing things down :-)

Would love to have some hard data on raw iodine sales: maybe something will come out on 21st. HOwever until I04 etc come on line there's not an awful lot to sell imo. Patience, patience I suppose but all I feel is exasperation, exasperation :-)

Does anyone else think that the 'under the radar' strategy will be finally thrown into a skip this month? As we have stumbled along there's been nothing much to hide from our rivals anyway.

[festario] 03/4/2014 12:41

Crosseyed, look no further than GVC.It might not multibag, but it will continually rise.More importantly its 3 monthly dividend will keep you in the manner you might wish to become accustomed!(Sorry SuperG for the off topic, but he did ask!)

[alphacharlie] 03/4/2014 12:36

freshvoice 3 Apr'14 - 11:40 - 18279 of 18291 0 0

Ok Alpha
Set your alarm for Wednesday 6.59am.


Goo goo ga joob - you can bet your life I will. But what will it say? he mused.

I think it was John Lennon who said "Life is what happens while you're making other plans." And that's how I feel. Although he also said "I am the walrus. I am the eggman." So I don't know what to believe.

[crosseyed] 03/4/2014 12:30

Arron Banks who was notified in yesterday's RNS as holding 3.16% as of 31 March is almost certainly the poster mister big, as he himself indicated in a post two days ago, since when he has been quite a prolific and knowledgable poster.

In of yesterday evening, Mr B outlined his valuation for Iofina based on iodine production expectations over the the next 3 years; his estimate of 1000 mT during 2014 with a year-end share price target of £1.10 ish, increasing to 2500 mT in 2016 with an share price target of £2.50.

A few posts later (18426), che7win suggests that share price growth might be somewhat faster given the likelihood of margin improvements, particularly from higher iodine prices.

For what they are worth, I too have been building my own detailed spreadsheet which support those forecasts though I am more bullish than Mr B on production (about the same for 2014, higher in subsequent years) though also with positive assumptions about future plant increases.

I have looked at the figures using another financial meaure - payback on capital employed with the following assumptions:
- capital cost per IOsorb plant of $2.5 million (somewhat higher than broker estimates I have seen);
- average monthly production per plant of 14 mT (though I believe that to be very conservative);
- operating costs of $20/kg including royalties (justified in a number of broker reports but also the level indicated in my model; as production volumes increase through operating efficiency improvements, higer brine throughput and ppm concentrations of iodine, this figure falls; the figure I'm using is derived for the modest monthly production assumed).

Payback, in months rounded up, occurs at various iodine prices as follows:
- $40/kg in 9 months;
- $45/kg in 8 months;
- $50/kg in 6 months;
- $60/kg in 5 months.

There is no need to deduct corporation tax in the payback estimate since capital costs are fully recoverable against profits though over a number of years. All net earnings after the payback period are operating profit (subject of course to general overheads and tax). Nevertheless, that rate of capital recovery is quite extraordinary. Furthermore, plants are likely to produce for many years at high capacity, technological improvements probably being the main driver for eventual replacement or further capital spending on refurbishment.

That is just looking at the profit margin on iodine production from IOsorb plants. Iofina indicate that they will venture into much lower cost mobile Mini-IOsorb units, possibly two later this year. With their design rationale being to target low-brine/high concentration sources, their economics look even more compelling than the plants though likely on a smaller scale.

Iofina also have their Chemical division that manufactures iodine derivatives plus other profitable processes: re-processsing of iodine waste (estimates indicate about 5mT/month); and other non-iodine products that seem to be to special order (contributing $5.11 million to revenues in 2011 and $2.251 million in 2012). To date, IOChemicals products have contributed a gross margin of about 20% and that has been achieved with predominantly bougtht-in iodine at market prices. Given that IOF can now fully supply IOChemicals with in-house production (RNS of 17/12/2013), it would not be unreasonable to expect a gross margin of at least 30% from derivatives.

The processing capacity of IOChemicals is about 30 mT/month per shift (or about 360 mT/yr). Apparently, that capacity could easily be doubled simply by introducing a second shift with little or no capital expenditure to do so, though obviously with an increase in variable costs. Since estimates suggest IOF will produce ~1000 mT in 2014, IOChemicals could be fully supplied with additional raw iodine available for direct sale. If double-shift working were to begin from July, that would require 540 mT during the 2014 for IOChemicals leaving perhaps 400 mT for direct sale allowing for some inventory build-up.

Mr B indicated that he is less keen on the derivatives business, and he does have a point. Direct sales would bring in cash more quickly, since iodine to be processed sits in stock for longer and delays the revenues from sales of those derivatives, possibly by several months compared with payments from direct sales. However, the value-added profit is certainly likely to be substantial.

The content reflects my own opinions. Please DYOR.

c

[cyberbub] 03/4/2014 12:29

Why would someone keep their lips sealed about a prospect in which they have presumably taken a stake??We're all grown ups here, and it helps to get tips about shares. Obviously everyone needs to DTOR and not just blithely go out and invest based on a bulletin board tip! But I personally find friendly, not deliberately ramping, tips to be very useful in generating ideas.NAI

[testuser123] 03/4/2014 12:25

on the macro side

Chilean tax reform bill now signed and delivered to congress for ratification:
hxxp://santiagotimes.cl/bachelet-sends-signature-tax-reform-congress/

China unveils stimulus package including significant infra spend:

[bogg1e] 03/4/2014 12:24

SG, you mention the somerset arms. My wife and i often go to Glastonbury although we actually live in West Berkshire. Next time im down that way i shall let you know and perhaps it would be good to just a meet a few of you and say hi. The trouble is which somerset arms? There are loads of them. Cheers.

Double checked; Maiden Bradley or Semington?

[bogg1e] 03/4/2014 12:21

Heres another FDEV (Frontier developments). I wont post my research because i still have to double check a lot of stuff ( i posted on the fdev thread but got a few key details wrong) but i am quietly hopeful that it will multi bag some time in 2015.

[wizard2020] 03/4/2014 12:19

Buy Vol Sell Vol.? Vol.

565,065 422,419 1,895,406

Hmm ?'s high and in volume per trade

[superg1] 03/4/2014 12:18

Many of the rest are proprietary. The most extraordinary is small cap, internationally successful with global major clients, profitable, high growth, and with a rarely found ideal business model. The company has not been mentioned by any writer. but my lips are sealed.

A lot of that fits the sleepers I can see. Lips sealed is the best way.

The secret to finding them is get the stock market list and thumb through them.

Mind-numbing and takes a stupid amount of time.

Pluses when found

BB's devoid of comment or very little
No sign of RHPS and co.

Then dig into them.