Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bobsworth] 13/3/2014 13:08

Says it all really. Quote from SQ1

"Chile was a great investment location 5 years back for big money, if similar resources are elsewhere and are more cost effective, that's where the money will go."

Fingers crossed with 6 plants soon to be in full and production, folks will stop sitting on their hands and start investing again in Iofina.

[1madmarky] 13/3/2014 12:58

SWD 's are wells drilled near oil producing well that inject the waste brine into or between layers of rock,. thus hopefully out of the way and unlikely to get back to the surface or back into the oil resoviors being drilled. that's my understanding.

[the fat controller] 13/3/2014 12:49

Guys,
The research into the downward spiral of Chile is great, and thank you for it. It is fantastic news for IOF's prospects. However, for it to have a materially beneficial impact on the share price of IOF, then this news needs to get to a wider audience.

I know that IOF management look in on this thread from time to time, and hope that they can use this information. However, coming from a competitor, it could be easily dismissed by prospective investors. Perhaps one of its advisors (better still if they were independent) could prepare a paper about the Macro-economics of Chile, and its prospects under the new Government, and how investors can benefit from this. This logical progression leads, inter alia, to INVEST IN IOFINA!

Could any of our learned City friends kick start this project?

Happy holding, as realisation will dawn eventually....

TFC

[1madmarky] 13/3/2014 12:44

The mining costs going up should counter the value of the currency going down to some extent. thus reinforcing the 45dollar minimum price for iodine. As SG says, shame IOF are not where they said they would be. But hey ho won't be much longer

[alphacharlie] 13/3/2014 12:42

Just checking on my mate Shonnys posts. Guys gone v quiet during the week.

In the five months I've been here I keep reading about SWD(s)- thought it was to do with water disposal but now not sure. Can someone help please?

[bobsworth] 13/3/2014 12:36

Thanks SG1 for keeping us upto date with events in Chile. Their rising capex and opex bodes very well for Iofina. With an overall drop of 7,000mt production so far from Chile and maybe more to come they are clearly hoping it will lead to supply shortages and consequently higher iodine price to make them profitable again. If that's there game plan then they are going to be quickly irritated by Iofina if it continues to grow its iodine output. Interesting times ahead!

[superg1] 13/3/2014 12:25

I seem to recall us guys talking about the pending Chile fall, and to watch any investments in that area, well before the market realised. In fact the market was talking buy the Chile bubble on the highs.

30% of their electricity comes from water power, and the water levels are dropping and drought worse, all costs were rocketing. So it didn't take a lot to work out that before long the situation was going to impact them on capex and opex.

In fact that recent project mentioned went about $1 bill over based on rising costs.

It's a shame IOF didn't get to where they said they would be now. But the fact is Chile are predicting worse to come near term. Rules will tighten up, tax looks set to go up for the miners, and they are stuck with their high fixed costs now, like the big wage increases.

Iodine prices will have to be higher in the future as costs go up.

Those points are very relevant.

If on the flip side, the gov said-:

We will reduce taxes.
Have all the water you want we don't give a damn.
Subsidies to cover power costs.
Grants.
Support dramatic wage cuts etc etc.

Then I can assure you us guys here would be told about it repeatedly in one liner posts.

Of course if that was the case, we wouldn't be here to read them in the first place.

Where will Chile costs be in 3 to 5 years. The forecast is poor, and if the past is anything to go by. Barrick forecast $1.8 bill for the goldmine, spent $3 bill plus with an eventual forecast of $10 bill plus, so they gave up.

Chile was a great investment location 5 years back for big money, if similar resources are elsewhere and are more cost effective, that's where the money will go.

IOF calculated 19k mt going down SWDs in OK per year. That was before the OK oil boom.

[engelo] 13/3/2014 11:33

Ansana: thanks for updates on Chile taxation plans.

SG: and for the newsflow on seawater pipelines. It just gets worse ;-)

Chile sounds like a desperate place to be from all sides; apart from our iodine niche the country's practically built on copper.

[superg1] 13/3/2014 11:28

An interesting point. The 150 litre per second bill actually stipulates desalinated water use.

I know we had the thoughts re could they use seawater, which in theory they probably could. But the problem with that relates to the heap leach method, where they just pile up caliche and drop water into it.

The issue being ground water contamination which is well covered in the Sierra Gorda project.

Fingers crossed they bring that bill put to parliament gets through, as it would seriously sting the iodine mines using fresh water.

I know Sirocco at their lowish production methods needed $50m forecast a few years back, that will have gone up. SQM $250m was said. Then opex goes up as listed by mines who already have it.

So if it happens, SQM will have to fork out and plan capex for it, then factor in the opex increase.

Sirocco (if they materially return) could stay under 150 and shelve any expansion thoughts. At the recent $41 per kg opex, I can't see them going for that.

Cosayach would be interesting as I suspect they are over the limit, and would have a choice of big capex and an opex increase or drop below 150 litres.

In general the law looks sure to come in as the country is talking severe shortages of fresh water going forward and the destruction of communities with fresh water demand expected to climb.

IMO that bill is probably why SQM were a bit cagey when Ben Isaacson asked his questions.

[superg1] 13/3/2014 10:51

We can get Rug to list all the various components from this link :-)

it would only take a week or two



Apart from the pipeline itself, its key infrastructure includes the coastal station and two inland pump stations, with a total of 24 pumps and pumping rate of 1,500 litres per second

[freshvoice] 13/3/2014 10:24

Super
I think the picture includes the thermal generating plant it gets the water from.

[neddo] 13/3/2014 10:15

well, I think they have built a reputation up for not delivering and prjections, lots have lost a fair amount ?

[meadow2] 13/3/2014 10:08

No matter who, what, when and where, the market is still making a negative judgement regarding Iofina and the share price reflects this. In view of the recent, relatively positive news I can't understand why!

[superg1] 13/3/2014 09:58

Just saw this news re seawater and Chile.

I assume the picture is a pumping station, and makes one realise why they cost so much and consume so much power, impressive stuff.

This one is for 1500 litres per second.



That's just the coastal station, there are two more inland.... ouch.

[freshvoice] 13/3/2014 09:35

Hey wake up Shonny, where are you ?

[superg1] 13/3/2014 08:55

Lol

You'll like this one if it's true.

SQM go on about competitors increasing production, hence their pull back.

However one Chile player is thought to be encroaching onto SQM acreage. In other words stealing SQM's resource and selling it, probably to SQM previous customers.

[ansana] 13/3/2014 07:51

"Despite slowing economic growth and concerns from investors and the outgoing government, Bachelet (Chile) seems unlikely to backtrack on her tax reform plans, mainly because of the social risks this will imply," said Maria Luisa Palomino, analyst with Eurasia Group."High expectations over her reform agenda, and a persistent risk of student protests, suggest that the incoming government will follow through on plans," she added.With growth slowing to a near four-year low and prices for top export copper tumbling to 44-month lows, some had speculated president Michelle Bachelet may tone down her program, which is expected to begin with tax reform, including a corporate tax hike.But when asked whether the gloomier global outlook could lead the administration to scale back its reform plans, Arenas appeared to brush aside concerns."The 56 measures planned within the first 100 days have a fiscal cost of around $720 million. That $720 million is fully financed in the 2014 budget," Arenas stressed in one of his first public statements as Finance Minister, without providing details of the measures.

[ansana] 12/3/2014 20:48

The new President of Chile has promised 15.1 billion dollars in extra spending after three years of protests over the quality of education pushed Pinera's popularity to a record low. The spending will be financed by an increase in the corporate tax rate to 25 per cent from 20 per cent and the abolition of a 30- year incentive to reinvest profits that she says is being used to avoid taxesThe economy is technically slowing down and normalising from an investment boom that lasted more than was expected, now everything will depend on China´s behavior, the decisions of mining multinational companies and energy costs."

[superg1] 12/3/2014 19:13

Jasp

Yes it's a regular thing of breaking up trades. Some orders to sell/buy will go over the entire day.

[bobbyshilling] 12/3/2014 15:14

Fair points there Bobsworth.

[bobsworth] 12/3/2014 15:00

Like you Bobbyshilling if approved I hope we could go it alone with the water depot etc as revenues look very attractive. Unfortunately Iofina's current business plan with plants 7,8&9 + mobiles + prilling tower + water depot & support infracture is going to need a lot of cash investment to deliver. With the delay in cash generating plants & having to extend the convertible bond Iam not sure without raising cash we have all the immediate cash for the total plan. Already we have seen 6 new plants for 2014 scaled back to 3! Hence the re-emergence of a water JV with cash upfront might be back on the agenda. In summary the management needs to box clever.

[jasp2] 12/3/2014 14:52

I've noticed there have been lots of small trades over past few days, occurring in batches over the space of a few seconds. It's as though orders for a few k are being split up into small trades. Anyone know if this is typical or what the reason might be?

[bobbyshilling] 12/3/2014 14:00

Sg, appreciate your reply yesterday evening. I reckon a JV of some kind with a heavy user of water may be the next step then, IF we should be turned down for the current permit application, (would be surprising in my view if that happened). Still, good to have alternatives to fall back on. The important thing is that we can sell water somehow, because it is so lucrative to the company going forward.

[superg1] 12/3/2014 13:38

Freshvoice
12 Mar'14 - 11:21 - 17010 of 17012 0 1Moderate | Ban


Hardly any trades, does that mean all the Somerset crew are at the races?

Butty supping, and tears over ground unsuitable for Harry Topper I suspect.


We are in that CGT timeframe once more where the game off profit crystallising and playing against it goes on.