Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bobbyshilling] 11/3/2014 18:54

naphar, fingers crossed they get the permit. Non core or not, it will be a shot in the arm cash wise to us. As you say, if they do spin off a new company in a few years, that will be OK too, because by then we should have consistent and large iodine production, so that won't break my heart.

[naphar] 11/3/2014 18:20

Bobby
The words:-
"develop" "internally" "before entertaining a conclusion soon of a JV relationship"

Are probably why. Develop internally may have simply meant get at least one permit and then entertain the idea of a JV

On the face of it I would still prefer to go it alone if it really is that lucrative. Why give some away? I guess it depends on the price! But why not just spin off as a new company one or two years in, once profitable and enough funds have been brought into iof to pay off the loan and ensure resources for new plants?

[meadow2] 11/3/2014 18:13

Perhaps the new men are of a different mind as to what is best!

[bobbyshilling] 11/3/2014 17:51

I'm finding it a little confusing that a water JV is now being regularly mentioned. We had the opportunity to go ahead with a JV some time ago and declined because of various reasons; importantly, it was felt that share holders would get a better return if the company progressed the water project on it's own.

From rns 17/9/12 :

'Whilst we would have had a short term windfall by concluding the JV relationship, the long term effect by doing the transaction would not maximise shareholder value. Additionally, due to the increased activity and profitability associated with current iodine operations we have shifted more resources to this effort. Our current strategy is to develop this water resource internally so as to better optimise share value before entertaining a conclusion of a JV relationship'.

We are nearly there with the current application, so why now talk of a JV? Pressure is off cash wise too, after the last rns.

[superg1] 11/3/2014 13:39

Good post Bob.

The ingredients are all there for a great business, it just needs the right people to drive it on.

For OK it's a start of an oil boom, one that Sandridge look to be opening up in other areas of OK, on new levels and in Woods county.

So with the right direction and a good navigation team it's a great prospect. The extras are just that, but fab options if any of them translate into revenue.

Low iodine prices they seem to be, but they are still double of what they were 3 years ago, and now Chile producers as shown in released data can't ever go back to those lower prices, as they would go bust.

If prices stay low I expect one or two Chile producers to go. The old US iodine producers are having a tough time of it too, I suspect.

[che7win] 11/3/2014 13:11

Excellent post Bob, fully agree.

[bobsworth] 11/3/2014 12:56

Superg1

Agree with your current synopsis on Iofina (that lot together for 2014, it's a lot of cash)!

As I see things Iofina has significant core and non-core business opportunities.

With its unique patented WET® IOsorb™ technology that nobody else has, it is their key to making good profits on relatively low world iodine prices that others cannot! With this technology it needs to stay focused on its core iodine business and look for ways to grow that side of the business by raising cash other than via a share capital dilution.

Although Iofina may have other tricks up its sleeve that we are not currently aware of, from what we know it has an obvious non-core asset that it needs to quickly prosper from.

Having rightly applied for the water rights application it needs on approval to bring in a junior partner that brings instant cash to the table leaving a split revenue income. Fingers crossed these talks have begun!

Knowing water is key to the USA fracking business it needs to strike a cash rich deal + 50% revenue.

It then needs to repeat the process with further water rights applications it makes.

The instant cash generated + 50% revenues then needs to target the most cost effective way to grow their iodine business. On doing so it needs to make hay while others struggle to make a profit on low iodine prices that will eventually recover. Ironically they need to keep up production, to prevent the iodine prices recovering, to squeeze their competition out of the market. They also need to demonstrate to the iodine market that unlike their competitors who are already struggling that Iofina is a reliable supplier of good quality iodine and is here to stay. This in turn will attract new customers to grow the business.

Having liaised with Lance in the past it would seem the most cost effective and quickest way to increase their raw iodine output is via the roll out of mobile plants that can quickly target and test rich ppm iodine sites. Lance saw a big upside in mobiles!!! With many sites to choose from deals with large O&G companies that need the bi-product water could be struck.

This army of mobile units can then march out across the oil fields and quickly add to the cash being generated by optimised plants 1 to 6 & hopefully 7,8 & 9 to then help finance the continued roll out of fixed plant to their riches iodine sites. Delays and extra costs can be avoided by sourcing from the USA.

On the chemical derivatives front which appears to be growing strongly and demonstrating a market need they then need to up production by going to a 2 shift and eventually 3 shift system to sweat their assets.

With increasing cash in the bank they then need to look to acquire or merge with other chemical derivative companies and grow by acquisition.

Similar JV partnerships need to be struck for oil and gas exploration and maybe helium to put the land they lease to work for the benefit of the company.

In other words they need to sweat & optimise all their assets for cash + profits and stay totally focused on iodine to quickly become a billion dollar iodine world leading company.

[alphacharlie] 11/3/2014 12:36

Hey Shonny. Top call this morning on going blue. Sixties finish or eighties? What's that? Changed your mind on the sixties? Good man. Eighties by Friday then? Let us know

[superg1] 11/3/2014 11:40

Knackers

Taking it from the bear view.

Plants have stuttered, iodine prices low. Prices lower than when capex was forecast etc.

talk of io7,8 and 9. Talk of a prilling plant, talk of pods. A water depot should they get the permit. A hot water depot would cost considerably more than a cold water depot, but then the returns are much higher.

So if you lump that lot together for 2014, it's a lot of cash.

But then we could wipe the water side completely on a JV, in the first version IOF incurred no costs, just all farmed out 50% of revenue and $15m cash. So that event should the option be available and taken, is interesting, but just speculation. However it's speculation based on prior offers turned down by IOF and has been mentioned as an option since. So just waiting for that permit before any more there.

IOF could slow up the roll out, consolidating their position, stick some lower cost pods on those very high ppm sites getting opex for those very low.

Then there is the debt option should they feel the need to go aggressive and so on. Dilution I suspect is the last thought.

I did ask re Stena v debt and a meeting. Banks were very cautious at the time and IOFs business model pursuit was unproven. It's a case of prove your tech and we'll lend you money. Many businesses have suffered that rock/hard place cycle.

Self-builds with staged equity release make me chuckle the most. We need cash to complete the next section. Ah but we said we will release the cash when you have built the next section. But we can't build it without the cash. The plan sits idle until the bank realises, the stupid scenario they created.

So with plant 6 near completion and iodine producing that option should they ever need it appears.

Fresh Bob

No idea what you guys are on about. But to cover the point of Fresh.

Helium needs certain geological circs to be present, but then only in some situations does it get to saturation levels making it commercial. Hence v the number of gas fields about, commercial helium it is very rare. Then you need a very tight layer to trap it, plus lot's of nitrogen as a carrier. Otherwise it seeps out through the earth's crust into space.

Some day in the future the stuff will be ridiculously expensive and rare. Hence companies like Weil resources are doing the ground work now.

[bobsworth] 11/3/2014 11:20

Yes prices doubled in last few years and rising 25% a year!

[freshvoice] 11/3/2014 11:15

Worth more than a bob Bobsworth!

[bobsworth] 11/3/2014 11:03

Second most abundant in the Universe yet we find it difficult to find on earth?
Helium!

[knackers] 11/3/2014 11:00

SG following last week's (7/3) RNS on the amendment to terms on the convertible bond, Re imminent financing I'd agree with you, right now it's not there. The risk is more associated with the completion and commissioning of these new sites. And to that point, progress (from the cheap seats) looks most encouraging.
Current price to my mind remains at a considerable discount.

[freshvoice] 11/3/2014 10:39

Funny how certain gases make what people say seem odd?

Second most abundant yet we find it difficult to find?
Mmmmmm!

[superg1] 11/3/2014 10:10

May be licking wounds on PLE. I see they had a positive spin rns today, but I really don't agree with the prospects and numbers they use.

Nonetheless a good day for PLE investors and much needed after the pump and dump, the short crew played a nasty game. So nice one for PLE.


IOF

The bears hold out for one thing and that's fund raising. The odd broker (I've seen comms) speculate that fund raising may be needed to fulfil the expansion plan. Buyers have been told to hold just in case to load up post any fund raising. bears would seek to exit that way.

Well personally I think the chance of fund raising is very slim. With other factors potentially kicking that idea out of the stadium.

So that imo is the reason for the lull, sitting on hands. Justified wait and see plans, based on the run of recent news. No one minds buying in higher if updates secure the future.

I estimate 3 mill plus in shorts out there waiting for fund raising. I don't think there will be any. So what is the exit plan then, there is no plan B.

If no fund raising then the brokers and clients become buyers, at the same time bears won't want to hang around. PIs are lurking buyers too.

Did not CF recently say the Chem div is doing well to someone. So sales don't seem to be an issue either if that is right.

I did think there would be fund raising on FUM and it came. Some trolls are in FUM and they will have seen those posts.

[alphacharlie] 11/3/2014 09:26

OK Shonny. I assume that means a blue day. Good man.

[qprjohn121] 11/3/2014 09:14

alphacharlie
He's just finishing up his filming for Channel 4's The Undateables.

[alphacharlie] 11/3/2014 08:58

Shonny's late this morning. C'mon mate I'm out in 20 mins.

[madchick] 11/3/2014 08:19

From article on SQM on Seeking Alpha
SQM saw weakness in virtually every business segment last year. Increased supply and weakening demand for Iodine and significantly decreased volume in solar salts in the Industrial Chemicals segment were the 2 main negatives during 2013. Management sees continuing weakness in both markets during 2014. In early 2014, the company has already seen iodine prices decline, and management sees this continuing through the rest of the year.


Link may not work if you're not a subscriber (not sure).

[superg1] 11/3/2014 07:42

Not everything can be posted. As I said in an earlier post, I've heard the same word 4 times from 4 different independent directions, each with a slightly different slant on it. Some from directions that have no interest in IOF and seek clarification if anyone else has heard and can put meat on the bones.

Such matters are best left to appear or not, officially.

With some folk being so 'friendly' if such an event comes, they can find out the official way, and you guys can have a ball.

[meadow2] 10/3/2014 22:28

Superg. You are getting enigmatic again! What do you really mean?

[che7win] 10/3/2014 22:16

Charts certainly didn't predict FFY news.

[superg1] 10/3/2014 21:55

Some things simply don't get shared, watch what happens.

Charts pointing this way and that are guides only, they can't predict everything as will be shown.

[freshvoice] 10/3/2014 20:46

Infoisrealnot. Get back to Lancashire Nutters only post this year!!!

[shroder] 10/3/2014 20:34

What's the general consensus on iodine pricing globally. Lot's of currency moves which may play a part.

No position as yet but happy with the companies steady progress.