Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[woodpeckers] 19/2/2014 21:13

Che7win - many thanks for your work, good to be reminded what's in store.

[n3tleylucas] 19/2/2014 20:41

I don't need to set-up avatars to discredit you mate.

You have somehow got up the noses of both bulls & bears, a heck of an achievement!

Your motive seem quite odd? I had thought of you as quite a good poster back in the day... then you seemed to lose the plot.

[che7win] 19/2/2014 19:54

Some points:

1. Dr Fay was looking for "6-8 plants, maybe more" last June, that has changed to 6 plants this year and a few mobile units, comparison with last year will show strong growth.
With the mobile units about 1/3rd output of normal plants, we should have the equivalent of 10 plants by year end, so plant roll out not much changed this year, just delayed from last year.


2. We know brine supply for IO#2 was stable last month, it should be producing a minimum of 250 MT over the year (I suspect higher - 450 MT is achievable).
Along with IO1, both plants should produce 300MT minimum as a conservative figure.

Reminder:
7th March "As things currently stand we expect IO#1 and IO#2 to be producing circa 300 metric tonnes per year cumulatively."

7th May "Recent production running between 800-900 kilograms ("kgs") per day with an expected 20-50% uplift once fully optimised, giving an annualised production rate in excess of 300 metric tonnes ("MT") per annum as previously forecasted;"

I suspect Io2 could produce 1.5 MT on its own, depending on the brine ppm.

It was on 15000 Bpd last summer, in September it was noted:
" IO#1 iodine production increased from higher iodine concentration brine;
· IO#2 12 inch brine pipeline installed to increase capacity so IO#2 will now be afforded excess brine over plant capacity"

Initial supply in September to IO2 was 50000 Bpd.

Last month we know IO2 brine supply was stable, why no figures for current run rate? Management are playing safe?

3. Chemical division. We know Chemical won't have had a good H2 last year, but some delays will have carried across into H1 2014. That should produce a good start to the year.
Chemical division should continue to increase output this year.

4. Water. An interesting non-core division, as if we get it, it will dwarf iodine profits over the next couple of years. Very much hidden value and potentially worth more than current market cap.
I previously worked out if we got the full amount it was worth 80p on $1 selling prices.
I believe water is selling for more, it's not worth working out at this stage but I'm amazed the share price doesn't factor in the probability that we have a water business at some stage.

A $5 increase in iodine would add over 20% to gross profits on raw iodine, so personally I would welcome an increase. This would result in earnings upgrades.
It's worth keeping an eye on the copper price, a strong copper price would increase the strength of the Peso which would make Chile iodine prices less competitive.
In a way, China is also worth watching, it's economy is over extended if you saw Pestons documentary last night, I guess this is already reflecting in copper falling.

[monty panesar] 19/2/2014 18:54

It's about producing iodine cheaply, selling it and then building new plants with the profits. Not a difficult business model especially when you are the lowest cost producer in the world.

All it takes is a little patience IMHO. It took a lot with ASOS in the early years I can tell you.....even though I left the last £50 per share on the table!

[n3tleylucas] 19/2/2014 18:51

I thought harrycripps was johncsimpson? Whoever he is he certainly isn't a fan of mine!

And why the blazes he's taking the pess here is about as bizarre as his bear-baiting antics back in the day.

Next avatar? How about Barry Kitchener? Unlike Cripps, a legend I have seen play.

[woodpeckers] 19/2/2014 18:09

I think at this stage, most of us would rather they 'waste' a little money on 'rns'ing news so that we know that things are as they should be. IMO it would be money well spent. Agree?

[woodpeckers] 19/2/2014 17:54

It's apparent that everyone is feeling very frustrated here, I know I certainly am. Perhaps we all need to concentrate on why we invested rather than rise to any comments from other posters.

Nothing (other than progression) has changed with the business as far as I can see. That progression may not be as fast as we hoped but hey, this is a young company, we surely knew what we were getting in to.

IMO it will come good. Just be patient and remember, you only lose money if you sell at a loss, paper loss means nothing. I certainly don't intend giving my shares away at this ridiculously undervalued stage. I'm convinced that there are plenty sat on the sidelines waiting for the reassurance that the market so desperately needs and when it comes they'll be colliding with Ennismore at the door!

[warmsun] 19/2/2014 17:14

sg,

my question was a serious one....thought you might elaborate (please).

[superg1] 19/2/2014 16:56

Harry

Just one of them no doubt registering new names. The effort to get another in sort of proves the point.

What's the next one?

[jointer13] 19/2/2014 16:25

we could get news any day now.

"Construction of IO#4 and IO#5 is progressing well. The Board is pleased to report that the steel framework has been completed and the towers have been installed at both plants. Current progress indicates a handover to our operations staff for both plants to occur in February with IO#5 expected to follow shortly after IO#4. Plant start-up activities will then begin and are expected to last approximately two weeks, at which time commercial iodine production will commence. Construction of IO#6 is underway, with the concrete pad in place and ready for setting of the steel framework."

[diggulden] 19/2/2014 16:14

I love how so many people have made the share price performance personal.

[che7win] 19/2/2014 15:51

I agree, short term noise doesn't matter, the market wants to see proof of the next two plants being rolled out, I expected news today, looks like others did too.

If they can roll these two out simultaneously, it should bode well for our future growth plans.

I'm looking forward to some news in IO#2 as well, production should be trending up from last year.

[warmsun] 19/2/2014 15:24

"The rise to 90p ish looked a bit hot"

sg, so we are saying that a 90p share price was a bit high?!!

[worraps] 19/2/2014 15:06

Personally, I have never found patronization or smugness to be an attractive personality trait.

[superg1] 19/2/2014 14:40

It's amazing how quickly moods swing from one end of the spectrum to the other.

Long term holders are probably the most chilled, but I can imagine T trades and and any form of trading chasing a hope that doesn't appear keeps the blood pressure up.

io4 and 5 are said to be close together on build timelines for completion with one close behind the other. So do they rns io4 complete, then say io5 complete within a week or 2 weeks, or simply wait until the 2nd one is done and announce the both together. Each rns costs money, so maybe they would wait for the two rather than spend twice.

Delivery is all that matters not what a chart is doing. Those looking for more shares will be happy getting them lower, some of those trading will have made or lost money depending on entry points and direction of their 'bet'.

The rise to 90p ish looked a bit hot based on the general sentiment, so no surprise really that it dropped back.

The bears wait for the peak, pop in a short as soon as weakness appears and moaning starts, then they work on the fear which on this share has become candy from a baby scenario to some extent. Any rise close the short, go quiet, wait for the peak, and do the same all over again. The same bunch are doing it on a few shares.

Those trading help the cause, but that's just the way it is. Investors long term, bears, traders and some playing with virtual cash they don't have. That's the market.

However the negativity on the share price going down, or positives on it going up is irrelevant to some. I keep waiting for a hint on here of bits and pieces that are around if you look, but nothing appears. I'm not too impressed with the BOD performance in recent months, but it doesn't have me scuttling around looking for alternative investments. I have followed a very long list, and almost all predicted good progress within 12 months, and the vast majority 4 years on have made little progress at all. It's the way of the AIM and market in general.

So if some want to assume no news is bad news, that's up to them, but doing a little work, could you the answer.

[bobsworth] 19/2/2014 13:19

I think the mm's know that with significant news imminent this will be there last chance to entice a few sellers and trigger a few stop losses.

Ruthless I know, but that is how the market works i.e. scare the sh@t out the PI's so the institutions can continue to add on the cheap which is what has been happening here!

Hang in there folks and ignore the derampers as they will soon be gone!

[bob alan] 19/2/2014 12:48

Cannot understand why we are back at this ridiculous sp,Yes last time there was good reason.But lots of things put right since then.Playing on lack of confirmation, maybe.

[worraps] 19/2/2014 12:29

.....And it was being said that at the presentations last week, they were bound to have some good news to announce.....so if we could hear it too please!

[bob alan] 19/2/2014 12:26

Yes,but very difficult to assess this.I would have thought the management would be going all out to put things right now,no messing, get it right 200% OR ELSE.

[freshvoice] 19/2/2014 12:23

Certainly got a lot of stops this morning!