Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 05/6/2013 20:04

Probably a worked sell by Stenna's boys ...

[chumbo] 05/6/2013 19:34

Evening all. Has anyone noticed (and if so can they explain) the circa 280k trades post COB this evening?

[n3tleylucas] 05/6/2013 19:18

Need more beer ... back soon

[n3tleylucas] 05/6/2013 19:16

has there been another 33% swing on CUP? LOL .... oh, bet that ... STINGS?

[n3tleylucas] 05/6/2013 19:06

Is this a coal bed methane stock? LOL ... just looked @ you 2 fighting, s1 used a term ... s1 is winning this, but I spot a flaw ... go SCRUT go ... be brave, or I will LOL ...

[scrutable] 05/6/2013 18:58

SG
I appreciate your considered analysis, which I would be foolish not to take into account. As I would expect, your caution wrt GDL, particularly wrt to the Chinese ethical component is well grounded.

This inevitability of plagiarism has been true throughout Communism for 50 years. With Khruschev and Bulganin on my company's stand at Sokolniki Park in 1969 we had a stand off with Russian design engineers demanding that we open the gear boxes to show the drive mechanisms. They bought one of each to strip down and copy. There was an amusing tailiece: three years later their 'Chinese' copies failed because the high tensile steels used were not as tough as ours and bits flew apart at the very high speeds involved. It was the same story in East Germany. The DDR had a budget for 'research' - naked copying - but no budget to purchase more than one machine for show case use ie study in operation. Thereafter we were shut out. So I accept the high probability that CNPC is just out to copy everything it wants to do and can

But plagiarism is a normal part of industrial catch up. The Japanese did this for decades whilst behind the curve, Our own Japanese clients unbelievably let the competitor's engineers in at night to strip our equipment down, photograph it and assemble it by the morning - several nights running.

The game plan at GDL must be to build their asset strength from China's economy whilst they have the edge and establish offshoots in India, Malaysia and Indonesia from a position as First Mover. I very much expect them to make themselves independent of Chinese contracts before they become too subservient.

As for the current GDL share potential, for the short term at least it is enormous. For the reasons given, CNPC may not reorder however good they find the GDL technology - which I believe GDL itself partly stole from their original Australian JV partner (Mitchells?) - but the Sinopec order for 100 wells - subject to confirmation after the 20th completion - justifies much more than the current £90m cap and GDL already has the drilling for GDG (Green Dragon Gas its parent) on which it previously subsisted alone.

The rate of recruitment is explosive and comes with many weeks of full training for raw recruits . Production is controlled from screens 100(?) miles away. The drilling equipment is tailored in Italy to their specific use and GDL have first call on production. They exhibit plenty of signs of good management with up-to-the-hilt investment courage.

So there is much to admire. I remain heavily invested and have the same patience towards their progress as I have had to exert re IOF.

IO#3 and IO#4 are three months late. That does not make me think the company is unreliable. Why should that logic not apply to GDL when their clients play hard to get?

[battery] 05/6/2013 18:35

Beercap - thanks. I hope you're right :-)

Pnetol - Will have to pass I'm afraid - work getting in the way, but thanks :-(

[superg1] 05/6/2013 18:26

Scrut re GDL.

My point re that test well not having data available until H2 seems to have been the right call.

Average drill time were 88 days and de-watering takes 90 to 120 days. Dewatering is needed to depressurise CBM to allow the gas to escape fully. Then the most accurate measurements can be taken.

As you know GDL put that it would be completed in early Q1. This was *impossible for the drilling of the well let alone anything else.

* impossible from the time of the rns, unless of course they had started drilling prior to that which would mean a breach of rules re no rns.

The entire thread seemed to be in the belief that gas flow tests would be complete in early Q1. For the 100 well contract news there was very little volume. For the one test well, there were volumes of 100 million which set the share price flying.

I emailed S Hill at GDL for clarification on some points. They covered some bits, but refused to comment on the impossibility of their inference re early Q1 for the contract to be complete. I laid out the details from their own site re average drill times and de-watering periods.

I then pointed out investors had misread the confusing rns, and clarification was needed. They refused to comment.

The bit I did have was the average of 88 days to complete a well.

RNS re the contract 28th Dec 12, Well completed rns 18th April saying the well took 88 days. I thought 88 days was a little strange, given that this well was deeper and longer on the horizontal, than any other they have drilled.

If the rns was near to the well completion date (one would expect that), then the drilling didn't start until the end of January. So no way on earth were they ever going to complete it by early Q1 as in the rns. They obviously knew that but refused to update the market.

This is the line they put in

'This initial contract is expected to be completed early in Q1 2013'

Very misleading imo but easy for them to say in hindsight, 'oh we meant the spudding of the well', which makes the line correct.

I pointed all of this out re the misunderstanding by PI's and they (S hill) refused to comment.

So now in theory you have 90 to 120 days of dewatering before the test results (Jul/Aug) and perhaps some time for evaluation.

That's why I challenged posts about them being able to get a number of other wells to drill from CNPC this year. In reality it didn't seem that could happen to any great degree.

My biggest single concern which i didn't posts was simply the Chinese copying the tech. They always do. If it's ground breaking for China it must surely be on the cards.

I well with CNPC seems nuts, as guidance. Just one well will prove nothing whether it's positive or negative. The 20 wells with the Sino will.

I know you rate Lance. He is a very astute and experienced investor. If I bought GDL shares and explained the circs, he would think I am nuts.

On that note, keep a long watch on pure circle for the turn, it will surely come at some point, and be a long hard drop when it does.

[superg1] 05/6/2013 17:47

No probs scrut, but you know my thoughts re China and trusting them. Just an opinion. I'll post in there.

[n3tleylucas] 05/6/2013 17:46

SCRUTABLE,

LOL ... you are seeing some stress atm, they can't understand why this is still the same as before all the analyst meetings. I think stenna are dumping, dunno how much, could be to equal what their junk is "worth", dunno ...

[scrutable] 05/6/2013 17:36

jbe
I would like to add that a year ago and earlier I was repeatedly posting that AAZ was probably the cheapest share on the LSE tracking between 30p and 45p (a PE of 3) and certainly the cheapest gold share. It has also been a fairly safe defensive share - though it has done that old Duke of York thing - marched up the Hilla few times to 60p only to march down again. My broker friend said cynically that it will probably continue to be. In fact this year the share price fell still further to 25p recently but will surely float back up to its normal trading range.

I don't see it doing any different - not even if Azerbaijan again wins the European song contest. It's just not on anyone's radar, and the management can't pump out much more money from it than it's doing now. They have done well to increase production by getting a better yield and exploiting the old tailings but they will run out soon. They will find a little more gold from exploration at Ordubad and Gosha but it's a long haul and cash intensive

When and if Domesday comes to the Euro Zone as is likely, AAZ will be a safe haven, but I have thirty better growth shares with USPs to invest in, having tried AAZ for 18 months and found it wanting.

[bobsworth] 05/6/2013 17:32

Cheers diggulden and superg1.

[jbe81] 05/6/2013 17:10

Scrutable, not sure todays rns was that unexpected, the board had been saying the plant was ahead of schedule and under budget, hence my previous post suggesting it was very cheap at 26p. I would hope 30,000m of drilling results (due this month)would see a similar rise. So would say is cheap short term, and would expect it to rise in the second half of the year as production increases. If the price of gold goes up there should be a considerable rise.
Agree it has been a frustrating share to hold, but only post on here when there have been large dips in the share price for no reason, for people like yourself and SG that know about the company but may not be keeping a close eye on it.
Will look at Sierra Rutile, thanks.

[scrutable] 05/6/2013 17:06

spuerg
I was looking forward to your reply re GDL but on the tipsters board - to follow your own sensible rules

[n3tleylucas] 05/6/2013 16:27

ray_d (ADVFN) 30 May'13 - 10:41 - 34723 of 34810 0 0

Hello,

Having taken on board what you have said, we are now arranging for a white list of threads that will be allowed on ADVFN. For the websites which are included in the list, you will be able to post links to them on the ADVFN website.

We are in the process of building this list and you can see the progress at . Please feel free to add any suggested websites you would like added.

Thanks,

Ray

[n3tleylucas] 05/6/2013 16:21

At this rate? Be lucky to have 4 up and running.

[n3tleylucas] 05/6/2013 16:19

"how confident are you that Iofina will build and commission the 4 outstanding plants in the remaining 6 months left?"

No chance.

[warmsun] 05/6/2013 16:16

5095 shares on the Offer and we are back up to 248.....depending on any iceberg lurking!

[superg1] 05/6/2013 16:13

Bobsworth 5 Jun'13 - 15:17 - 1023 of 1031 0 0Moderate | Ban

superg1

With 6 IOF# plants due for build and commissioning in 2013 and half the year gone and only 1 extra plant built and commissioned in 2013 (IOF#2), how confident are you that Iofina will build and commission the 4 outstanding plants in the remaining 6 months left?

Bob

Simple answer, Very confident, the digging doesn't stop.

I've noted a few new employee's too.

[n3tleylucas] 05/6/2013 15:52

"I do think it is all a little calmer this last 3 weeks. Thanks."

You mean the share price is now range-bound? Or somethin else? This is good ...

(Even) SCRUTABLE will like this ...



hic!

[diggulden] 05/6/2013 15:42

Bit of selling pressure towards the end of the day, hardly a surprise given the FTSE is 100 points off. As I said yesterday, I am more than happy for this to trade 220-245 for another month, may even be tempted with another top up.

[the librarian] 05/6/2013 15:37

It's Battery in charge there beer, post 979 on the old thread. One for the header here maybe?

[king_roster_iii] 05/6/2013 15:28

Beercapafn - don't forget investing for the new syrup - you got a full head of hair or you gonna get the wayne rooney plugs as well - you strike me as a fellow baldy?

[beercapafn] 05/6/2013 15:22

Bum, bum, bum.. 2.40 bid.. mind you FTSE down 100 points. Not that changes any long term thoughs, just thought we were going to break the 2.50p today.
I 'Am Looking Forward' a few RNS releases in the the next 8 weeks. Just a bit miffed at such a drop on FTSE today and it makes portfilio look weak.
Had a private bet on iof closing at 2.50p in May with a fellow Iof investor.
My last buy was 28,000k shares. Please add Lib or Scrutiable, lost the plot on is running the PI share log...@ 2.35.
Lets all settle down and focus on the happy days ahead for (IOF), us, and all the peeps that are depending on our investment decisions, to get a pony, go to uniey, help with a house purchase,or new liver.
Thanks SG1, finger over the button for non blues. I do think it is all a little calmer this last 3 weeks. Thanks.