Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[monkeymagic3] 20/12/2013 10:30

There are indeed lots of mugs looking at themselves in the mirror Scrutable. Including one that rants on about ASOS.

[scrutable] 20/12/2013 10:28

shroder and diggulden
there is also a fresh update from First Columbus which surprises by the number of differences with Investech. The target share price is reduced from 239p to 200p and 2015 revenue is suggested at $60m compared with Investech's $117m. Other data differ just as much, which inspires caution and makes me think that my own extrapolations and those of other posters are as good as one another..

Investech's EPS for 2015 is an encouraging 33.7p which points to a five bagger from now and broadly confirms what all the well researched people on this board are saying that nothing has changed except the iodine price and the six month postponement in the timings of roll out.

Timing has not really not changed since the decision to relocate IO#3, which was the right thing to do but was the cause of the main delay to which an extra month was contributed by Republicans in Congress. The data and most of those who have visited the AGM and shareholder presentations refute the charge of incompetence in all areas except BOD information flow which as others have pointed out consistently fails to answer the questions it raises in its own RNS notices. The absence of professional skill in communication continues to be really disturbing but the business model, experimental technology, constant upgrades, and 500% increase in production compared with the pilot plant only a year ago are quite heroic. Looking a gift horse in the mouth comes to mind.

This is still the most certain of the current high growth opportunities in the UK market and future earnings are now very, very, attractively priced.

[uppompeii] 20/12/2013 09:56

That's a pretty condescending last sentence Scrutable considering how badly you have called this yourself and the various wipe outs you have had, one probably helping trigger a much steeper fall than otherwise would have been the case.

[scrutable] 20/12/2013 09:33

Three years ago I spent many hours correlating the difference in value ie the -Out-of-Balance between the day's Buys and Sells and the change in Capitalisation.
I called this ratio - for want of a better term 'Edwards Ratio'

ER was remarkably consistent for each share but as one might expect was a lower multiple for the FTSE than for small caps. For a well traded AIM share like IOF it was still surprisingly high around x20-40 times and for a lightweight like GDL, a very volatile x100.

It must have some relationship to the Beta quoted by professionals, and I really must Google that to find the connection when I have nothing else to do.

The relevance is that at the moment my screen tells me that Ennismore are short by 1.53%, worth around £2.0m and collectively distort the market balance between 'real' buyers and sellers by something in the order of £80m ie 55-65p on the share price This isn't science but it is indicative of the distortion caused by shorting of IOF and of the upside to come by the time Ennismore complete their withdrawal.

Seen from that angle unforced sellers over the last few days have panicked away a third of their asset, and when they look in the mirror will see a large Mug

[shroder] 20/12/2013 09:31

Excellent, thanks -


diggulden 20 Dec'13 - 09:26 - 13708 of 13709 0 0

[naphar] 20/12/2013 09:27

SG, not so sure that is the process so maybe you can share something to help clarify? I found two contradicting documents. The first is from 2012 and backs up your water process noted above. The second is the current FAQ document on the Montana website, with a date in the PDF of 2013. I am assuming the newer 2013 document (only 5 pages and explains the process nicely) contains the current process.






From the FAQ document:
"If it is determined that one or more criteria have not been proven and the DNRC is unable to modify the application, the DNRC will prepare a draft preliminary determination to deny. The applicant will have 15 days to contact the DNRC in order to schedule a meeting and offer additional information as to why the application should be granted. If the information provided is adequate, DNRC will create the preliminary determination to grant the application and the application will move to public notice as discussed above. If the information is not deemed adequate, a preliminary determination to deny will stand and the application will move to our Hearings Unit and a show cause hearing will be held if the applicant does not withdraw the application."

[diggulden] 20/12/2013 09:26

Shroder, see below for their latest note, target remains 230p.

captain_kurt - 17 Dec 2013 - 08:36:06 - 12983 of 13708
Investec :

Iofina's year-end operational update is largely in line with our expectations. However, shipments of iodine chemicals around the year-end will see revenue and profit slip in 2014. As a result, EBITDA is expected to be broadly unchanged in 2013 (ie. breakeven versus our $3m forecast). This is a timing effect. Our longer-term forecasts are broadly unchanged, as is our NAV-derived 230p target price.

First three plants: Iofina reports that its first three iodine-extraction plants (IO#1-3) are currently producing a total of one metric tonne of iodine per day, despite not being fully optimised. This is broadly in line with our expectations.
Next two plants: It reiterates that it expects IO#4-5 to start up in Q1 2014. Both plants are awaiting the arrival of their extraction towers, due on site by the end of this month. The titanium towers for IO#4 are being shipped from the Ukraine. IO#5 will be the first facility to use US-supplied fibreglass towers.
IO#6 underway. Iofina has started construction of IO#6. This implies Iofina has decided against cannibalising the plant's equipment to expand capacity at IO#2. Annual combined iodine production from IO#1-6 is seen at 700-1,000 tonnes, again broadly as we expected.
Three more plants due in 2014. Iofina's current plans are for 3 further plants in 2014. This is in line with our assumption of nine operational facilities by end 2014E. These could be augmented by a number of smaller, mobile units.
Little change to forecasts. Current iodine pricing ($45-50/kg) is slightly below our modelling assumption ($50/kg in 2014E). However, recent shuttering of capacity in Chile suggests that pricing should recover.

[shroder] 20/12/2013 09:22

Has there been a revised note from Investec following the update?

It would be helpful to get their steer on things for future guidance.

[meadow2] 20/12/2013 09:01

Please, no more assumptions! Let us await the factual outcome.

[bal1man] 20/12/2013 08:56

so super your saying that if iofina get that water board hearing that it is basically a rubber stamping exercise?

[captain_kurt] 20/12/2013 08:51

Agree Dig, with IO4 and IO5 just waiting for the towers to be slotted in, sentient will change very quickly and with it the share price trading over £1

[gymratt] 20/12/2013 08:50

Still plenty of sells..think I'll wait a little longer...

[pwcarnall] 20/12/2013 08:50

err dont think so, iofra try doing adummy sell for anything over 10000

[diggulden] 20/12/2013 08:47

The psychology from Ennismore is interesting here.... they are sat on a superb paper gain at the moment, do they close out the year in glory, or do they hold for more.

IOF must be their best performing short over the last 6 months so you would think they would be keen to bank at least some of the profits.

Am watching with interest.

[gymratt] 20/12/2013 08:41

Could this be the bottom then? If so it'll go up like a 'Jackinabox' when short positions are closed AIMMHOOC!

[iofra] 20/12/2013 08:34

Bear squeeze developing? - few shares available other than MMs

[bobsworth] 20/12/2013 08:33

Battery, Diggulden & Noli thanks for that info.

Any thoughts on the mobiles cost of production (CAPEX) compared to fixed sites?

Midstates and Chesapeake - wow they must have a lot of rigs to tap into!

[oldnotbold] 20/12/2013 08:31

che7win, nice to see your confidence, but given the terrible disclosure on operating costs, and the continual failure to hit construction targets, can you show us your workings. Your thoughts much appreciated. ONB

[che7win] 20/12/2013 08:25

dig,
others waiting for the turn, everyone who is astute knows it's completely undervalued, including the derampers.

They all want their quick profits.

£10m profits next year in my book, closer to £17m with water.

So EPS next year of between 8p and 13p, it makes the current share with it's triple digit growth worth 150p-200p easy.

A bit of confidence here, we will be at 200p within 12 months.


IMHO.

[diggulden] 20/12/2013 08:07

Better start to trading this morning.

In theory, forgetting fundamentals and technicals, this is due one hell of a bounce, will be plenty of chasing that bounce too, so hopefully a strong day today.

[writz] 20/12/2013 07:52

SG, do you have a URL for that data? TIA.

[woodpeckers] 20/12/2013 07:47

Did you have a pint or two last night tsmith, I'm not quite sure what you meant by those last 2 posts...???? ;-)

[superg1] 20/12/2013 07:46

Judge

re the permit, it seems the next stage is a hearing with the water board.

I have found, what looks like, all cases since 1972, most of which seem to end up with the grant of the permit (quick glance). Those that don't get granted can be down to basin closures for certain areas, so they were never going to win, applicants not turning up at the hearing , false claims, and various other reasons.

They range from some very basic stuff with some refused due to farmers claiming big irrigation rights, where the identified use goes beyond that needed for land capacity and so on

Just a case of waiting to see on what date the hearing is.