Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 03/6/2013 08:21

"if they accept a bid then I have to as well even if I oppose it - the decision will be out of my hands."

Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong ... need 75%, anything less FAILS.

[the librarian] 03/6/2013 08:10

There were a hell of a lot of buys late on Friday superg, when I see something like that I usually think that someone, somewhere, knows something that we don't... we will find out this week!

[warmsun] 03/6/2013 08:03

Good post supreme mo, thank you for your thoughts.

[superg1] 03/6/2013 08:02

Re this fella



I suspect it's a simple case of an advert. It doesn't say Iochem are looking for new leases and as we know they have a production limit.

Out of the blue IOF appeared and have been leasing like mad. Iodine lease lawyers are more or less restricted to the OK area.

If you know what has been going on, IOF have been using a lot of lawyers with brine lease expertise.

I guess they have ignored this guy, as he or his firm may have obtained brine leases in the past for Iochem. IOF would want to use anyone connected with them I suspect. Once you have a brine lease it lasts forever once you produce.
So whoever linked up with Iochem (going on the reports) has been ripped off and will continued to be ripped off in a deal they can't exit.

I presume this guy is seeing plenty of other lawyers getting work and is missing out.

I'm not suggesting their firm is the lot that sorted the original iochem leases, but why mention them.

On a side issue, others around the area will know the deals IOF are doing, which are better than Iochem did all those years back, so if their production rates are in decline and they need new brine, opex is going to go up as the deals will cost them more.

As any brine will have to be local to the existing plant, and these are rural area's, I doubt the locals will welcome Iochem.

However I think it's just a bit of an advert from someone who is missing out on brine lease work.

[chumbo] 03/6/2013 07:49

As I see it an offer might precipitate other offers if IOF is seen to be in play. This isn't a process we want to see initiated for some time I would have though

[supreme mo] 03/6/2013 07:46

Scrutable, have a few chairs been kicked over in the attic mate?

I think we are going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Everyone has a price. You keep holding asos up as this shining example of a company which has avoided takeover when in reality you have failed to mention the £10s of millions of director disposals along the way....

Nick Robertson CEO actually sold 1.7million shares at £8.90?

22nd Jan

Terri Westlake, a Person Discharging Managerial Responsibilities (PDMR) of the Company, sold 3,564 ordinary shares of 3.5 pence each in the capital of the Company ("Ordinary Shares") on 22 January 2013 at an average price of 2550 pence

Peter Williams, Non Executive Director, sold 80,000 shares in the company on the 26th October 2012 at a price of 2154.70p. The Director now holds 20,000 shares

Jonathan Kamaluddin, Executive Director, sold 305,217 shares in the company on the 26th October 2012 at a price of 2150.00p.

Lord Alli, who is also chairman of media group Chorion, exercised options on Thursday to buy 750,000 ASOS shares at 12.67p per share, and then sold them at £19 per share – netting a sweet £14,154,975.

Just hours after reporting that ASOS had seen retail sales soar by 54pc in the first quarter, it emerged that Mr Robertson had sold around 1.7m shares at 890p apiece. But, he still has a stake worth about £70m.



The Asos boss sold 744,792 shares at £21.50, raising £16m



.........................................................................

I agree with you re: the potential which is why I am invested here and have been for the last 18 months or so but I don't agree with your statement:


"Nobody HAS to sell their shares however high the offer." I disagree with this - my holding is trivial compared to the likes of the BoD and institutions so YES, if they accept a bid then I have to as well even if I oppose it - the decision will be out of my hands.

Furthermore, those with spreadbet holdings don't actually own the shares, the spreadbet companies do from a voting perspective, so it is potentially out of the person making the spreadbet too I believe?? (correct me if I am wrong).

For the record, I am invested here like others for the long term as I can see the long term value - it has the potential to be a money printing machine, so I agree why sell it? BUT, if you secretly offered £10 per share to everyone now, I genuinely think most people would take the bait..... whether in hindsight this would prove to be the wrong decision.

I can honestly say this stock has changed my life and many others too on here so even if we did get bought out at a much much higher price, you won't get any complaints from me. As MM3 once said, a bird in the hand....

Don't worry I shall not mention the 'T' word again. Sit back relax and enjoy the ride!! :-)

[superg1] 03/6/2013 07:44

Lot's of trades left after from Friday appearing.

On the takeover comments, yes IOF would be worth a lot more if left to run, they could over time produce 10k, 15k or 20k mt and have a share price range on iodine of £20 to £50.

On delivery with the intended roll out it seems £10 is as close as 30p was in the past. By that time it will have gone up over 50 times it's low price.

10 times the price of anyone in at up to £1. So if IOF does get taken out at a decent price, does it really matter, it will have changed the lives of many invested.

That's not a 'vote' of pull the plug, and take what's on offer, but just a leveler to say, it's a great position to be in.

While Scrut mention the Tornado, plants are fully insured for replacement and that includes revenues and profits, so while some would panic it doesn't affect revenues. That season is almost over and the chances are millions to one. Sods law yes, but that's as far as the risk goes on that front.

[pleco] 03/6/2013 07:29

I am going to add to my investment today. Has anyone any thoughts as to when? I imagine that there should be a rise today, but there is usually a big spread for the first ten minutes. Ultimately I do not suppose it will make much difference, but it is nice to avoid an initial drop. Happy days!

[the librarian] 03/6/2013 07:25

Loadsamoney, sounded like Harry Enfield Scrutable :-). I was nearly convinced until you compared IOF to GVA and then focussed on IOF's rising trend. As far as black swan's go it's all a gamble, c'est la vie!

[skylite] 03/6/2013 07:18

Why not Warmsun? You might be surprised what we get should it come to that. As Jeff said, it's a nice problem to have.

[n3tleylucas] 03/6/2013 06:50

"I( and you) can vote down any takeover...it doesn't mean we will succeed."

Look, doesn't matter what the BOD or ii's say, if 25% plus 1 share vote against, the offer fails, it's the law.

Mind you, you would have to take that junk convertible into account - as converted, because if it got tight, they would convert it to get the offer through, if they had to.

All hypothetical of course, seeing it'll take 2 years just to prove that today's market value is justified. But an interesting point nonetheless.

You'd think I'd dislike SCRUTABLE given the stick he's given me, you'd be wrong. By far the best poster on this thread, regardless of whether he'll be proved right. Sometimes the best are those that make you think.

[engelo] 03/6/2013 01:33

Iochem's extraction process looks quite complex and chemical intensive, so (apart from the pollutive potential of the process) Opex should be considerably higher than IOF's.

http://www.iochem.net/History/History.html

Gadolinium: can you shed any extra light on this?

[warmsun] 03/6/2013 00:55

We don't want an offer....we will be the losers! We want IOF to stay independent for forever ...if that is possible...as Scrut has said...if you accept an offer then where next....you won't get a better return on any other investment!
Okay...enough waffling by me...back to lurking...

[skylite] 03/6/2013 00:52

I look forward to an offer - so I can make my own mind up.

GLA.

[warmsun] 03/6/2013 00:39

Scrutable (with the greatest of respect...a corny phrase,but one which is sent with the greatest of sincerity and respect) - again I fear you are missing the point some are making....we may not have any choice in a takeover...whether you (or I !!) like it or not! Yes, I want to hold on to IOF for many, many years..BUT shorter term institutions sadly want to make short term profits...earn their bonuses etc etc....so, we may have no choice..! I( and you) can vote down any takeover...it doesn't mean we will succeed. I know none of this will be news to you but I just think you are mis-interpreting posters views when talking about a (dreaded) takeover.
Again, I shall shut up.
Market opens soon...back to staring at the screen....whilst happily able to watch the mad motor bike riders in the TT races.

[scrutable] 03/6/2013 00:38

Festario.

I like the way you have set it out. You are certainly reducing risk and increasing the probability of success. It seems to be going in the right direction.

But numerate analysis of the share price channel tells you straight away that your return on GVC however better than from previous experiences is 'only' 35%/pa. It may shock you to learn that there are 98 LSE/AIM shares moving upwards at greater speed, and very many of those carry lesser risk and have a stronger franchise.

With IOF of course you are much better placed. The metrics disclose that the IOF share price channel is rising at 146%/pa. To put it into perspective that's four times as fast ie x4 times the rate of return from GVC. I appreciate that the figure is partly masked by a relative retracement of IOF since April 11th.

Don't draw any conclusions from that temporary flatlining. The share price will soon burst out again - this time towards 280p as soon as there is news of further progress with production from IO#3 (and perhaps IO#4) or of the first water contract. We may also well hear that IO#2 is outperforming. I can't believe that none of this will happen at or before the AGM

[smilingmickey] 03/6/2013 00:24

IOF must be targeting plant locations where (a) the iodine content in brine is consistently high, (b) the flow rates from the supplying wells to an individual SWD are or will be minimum 30k b/day and (c) the brine is or will be piped directly to the SWD wells and arrive hot.
They then need to get in place iodine extraction license(s) and a supply contract(s) with oil producers to cover a particular site before proceeding with construction.
Now that IO2 is operating successfully IOF must to be the most attractive option for licensors and oil producers to go with.
Presumably Iochem will target only enough brine supply to maintain current production unless they are developing an alternative extraction process.

[scrutable] 03/6/2013 00:09

supreme mo 30 May'13 - 07:30 - 491 yours is best answered by my reply to
Warrensearle 30 May'13 - 08:27 - 496 who wrote:

Scrutable you were at the presentation you couldn't have sat any closer to jeff - didnt you listen to what he was saying? of course there is eventually going to be a takeover something this board of directors have huge experience in getting value for shareholders out of. As super G has pointed out if we are as successful as they anticipate we will start to hurt some very large companies who will swoop in and take us out simple market dynamics I though an old hand like you would appreciate that ?

..............................................................................

I am sorry that you have completely misunderstood both my post, and my strong message to Jeff. I am actually horrified - by your 'simple market dynamics' and passive acceptance of an inferior outcome

Nobody HAS to sell their shares however high the offer - unless supported by a legal majority. I have to make it clearer than I have so far succeeded that whatever price you or Jeff or anyone else thinks is a victory for negotiation, wiliness, or experience the proceeds cannot be reinvested in anything half as rewarding.

It is blind stupidity to think that a 100% or 200% or any other plausible premium offered, or wrung out of a bidder is more worth having than an intelligent retention of the holding which each of us already has. From 2.5p the ASOS price has reached x15 times IOF's 240p now £37), having doubled again over the last 12 months. IOF is substantially outperforming this

I certainly heard what Jeff was saying. Don't belittle my understanding when you have not grasped the message yourself. I said, if YOU had listened, that from his position amongst the trees he could not see the wood. I have spent 30 years looking in detail at 2,400 shares on the LSE - five hours a day over the last fifteen. Has he? I intended to shock him into listening to ME but it fell on deaf ears - yours as well. Jeff is clearly an equity wheeler dealer who feels that a larger profit than he expects is good enough and a worthy outcome. I say STOP and THINK.

I need to bore you with repetition until you get the message. Look at the record: the share price history already surpasses by 60% in time that of the best performing share of the last ten years. This NOT just another quick buck to take out when the 'inevitable' offer comes - and be grateful.

Is it really not much better to hold on, WHATEVER PRICE IS BID, than to sell out at a fat'premium' and look to reinvest is something inevitably much less rewarding. Where on earth is the sense in that?

[festario] 03/6/2013 00:00

SCRUTABLE, that is exactly the sort of temperate investment case that I wish I had followed in recent years, but I finally do follow now.
I would have saved myself a lot of losses in various 'dogs'

Now, I am heavily immersed in IOF, from 120p upwards, but have not sold any of my main holding (GVC) to pay for them. Seeing as GVC pay enormous dividends to fund my life, and these are set to grow further.
Instead, I have had a clearout of other underperforming shares, OXS, FOGL. LGO etc, and taken profits from others such as 888 and WMH. I also reduced my position in GKP, out of boredom mainly.

So, now I am rebalanced across GVC, IOF and GKP only.
I see it like this; One of those IS happening (GVC), one of those WILL happen, that being IOF, and the other 'should' happen, that being GKP.

I just wish I had poked my nose into IOF earlier, I first looked in at 70p, but didn't have enough time to research. More fool me eh?

[n3tleylucas] 02/6/2013 23:32

That's exactly the post I've been waiting for.

The only bit that matters;

"By all means take such a risk yourself in the delusion that you are not subject to Sod's Law, but don't corrupt others into thinking the same when they still have a hankering for less than the maximum risk."

[hurricane.] 02/6/2013 23:25

Then you should use a mattress for 5%.
Upon an unfortunate nuclear strike, the demand for Iodine will shoot up

[pcjoe] 02/6/2013 22:34

Fair enough Supreme but blocked tech or not Iochem appear to be going after leases

The huge quantity of Iodine rich brine under Oklahoma is very likely to have the potential to completely dominate world supplies of Iodine - That dominance is going to come to pass if Capex/opex is lower than Japan & Chile - No rocket science in that prediction

The cheapest iodine is likely to come via IOFs model of JVs with O&G operators - If Iochems methodology ( 1200T from 16 wells) is also cheaper opex/capex wise than Japan/Chile operations - Then we can expect to see a lot more such "Green field" brine drilling operations to make up any world supply requirement shortfalls - In my very recently formed opinion, Iofina should be involved in that up to their necks - If only to stop others doing so

The beauty is our tech could process all that brine whereas (at the moment) Iochem apparently cant

Could it be that the special resolution being raised at the AGM might be for realising cash for Green field brine extraction/Lease costs etc - That could be money well spent if you ask me - but as usual the bottom line will dictate

[supreme mo] 02/6/2013 22:05

pcjoe, that's really spooky you posted that - I sent that to sg earlier!!

He quite rightly pointed out that the japanese tech is blocked for new sites and volume so they are maxed out with what they have now....

One thing that is likely to happen, the prices and value of those leases will go up the more they are sought afte...

The thing that gives me huge confidence following Jeff's comments from the presentation is that IOF are ahead of the game on this - they have done thousands of tests on the wells so they know the sweet spots (high ppm) and as we speak are tying those up left right and centre.

As mentioned before, the value of these leases carry so much value for any potential takeover (DON'T SHOOT ME DOWN FOR MENTIONING THE 'T' WORD SCRUTABLE
;-) )