Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 08/11/2013 23:09

Just the word grapheme, it's a long road for that product, exciting but a few years yet before their is serious commercial growth.

However that won't stop some shares taking off if the hype is there but the odd related stock like stratmin (graphite flake) hasn't done well.

The line @a number of mothballed mines caught my eye in that market, although grades look like they will win the day.

I forget the name of the best grade graphite for grapheme. I suppose the key in the future will be to look for any stocks with the high grade material.

Large and jumbo flake is good, but I recall a type considered better.

I haven't looked at it too much but have noted good old iodine is used in experiments with graphene.

[n3tleylucas] 08/11/2013 21:28

As per usual you miss my point entirely.

I am not being two faced.

I said if TUNG can make a PTP of 10% of its MV in 2 yrs then it's fair value now in my book. I wasn't predicting what it will make, and there are no broker est's yet. I was answering a question as to how to value it.

Now if this can make £20m PTP in 2 yrs it too will be fair value now.

Your problem Che is you cling to broker est's as if they're gospel, despite having them slashed again and again.

This will do well to make £10m in 2 yrs time, mark my words.

[woodpeckers] 08/11/2013 21:13

Great thought to take us in to the weekend Festario.

[festario] 08/11/2013 19:13

Re-Exit points, I know that it has been said that no Iodine producer of IOF's size has ever not been taken over.
But, I would dearly love IOF to progress onwards and become a cash-generative and dividend bearing shareholding for us all, for many years to come.
Pie in the sky? I hope not.

[superg1] 08/11/2013 18:06

Formula for 90% yields

BPD/7000 x PPM = KG per day.

Then allow for downtime, 15% suggested.

Scrut

I have no idea which sites are high ppm and which are lower, or whether high bpd sites are high bpd or low bpd, as in the guidance of 17k bpd to 40k bpd guidance for new sites.

Judging by the way io2 brine went up those figures could have changed.

What is io3 could have been the intended io4 for all we know, io3 is simply the first plant ready to go.

It is clear that IOF have some high ppm sites, and some lower. In what order they will appear is not clear.

What is clear is that io2 is a very good site, do to the potential roll out change they mention.

We know that io1 on low bpd, hoping to get more was on 50 mt per year.

Guidance on recycling was 5mt per month, depending on when material for recycling turns up.

io2 on 30k bpd, 300ppm, 90% yields and 85% up time I have as 400mt.

Excluding recycling which they don't include, that makes a rate of 1.25mt per day.

So anything around that figure, assuming io2 has been on 30k bpd, it gives us an idea re progress and ppm.

Personally I thought io1 could move to the 80 to 100mt range over time but we don't have any update re that.

On that basis of 200mt more needed to hit 700mt that means plant io3 to 6 would only need to of a level less than io1.

As io1 was on around 12k to 14k bpd, and they say the news sites are currently 17k to 40k bpd. It looks like a casual stroll to achieve 700. That figure I agree seems to be achievable post io3 never mind io4,5 and 6.

I've said it before the focus on 31st December puts blinkers on some, you could have plants coming on line in consecutive weeks for all we know.

Yes very nice to hit targets, and it keeps many happy, but I have no intent of selling on st, th or rd of anything while the business plan is on going.

To me my most likely exit point is the TO of IOF by someone else. While IOF continue on this business plan, I'm very happy.

The potential extras are free, not priced in and lucrative.

So on that point 10 :-)

[bobsworth] 08/11/2013 16:45

crazycoops: Thanks for that! 700-1000mt yr end from IOF-1,2,3 + a bit of IOF-4 makes sense to me especially when Iofina inferred that IOF-5,6 would be built by yr end without mentioning commissioning. Double that figure with all six plants in operation and Iofina looks very good for a revaluation.

[spike_1] 08/11/2013 15:36

crazycoops: I agree with your post #10802 above, your figures work for me. Using just IO #1-3 at year end I would go for 700 run rate.
Best wishes - Mike

[crazycoops] 08/11/2013 14:58

scruts,

I believe the exit run rate as at 31 Dec 2013 will be at the upper end of the 700-1000mt pa range. Anything higher than that surprises to the upside and I think your 1600mt is far too optimistic.

However, the annualised run rate as at 31 January 2014 is a different matter. The reason being that IO4-6 wil be in build mode leading up to year end and very unlikely to have full brine capacity or be completely optimised. There might even be a situation where they are built but not yet commissioned or commissioned but brine not yet flowing etc. In short, I believe the 700-1000mt will be delivered by IO1-3 with minimal contribution from the other three - a month later and it's a different story. But of course, that additional production from the three new plants might not become completely clear to the market until there is a further trading or production update.

[festario] 08/11/2013 14:19

In the hope that we don't get an 'end of day' sell off, (as usual) I have just bought back the 15,000 shares I sold earlier in the week. I have only managed to add 331 free shares to my pot, but I have done it now as I believe this to be the very bottom price, given the news flow to come.

[canalet3] 08/11/2013 14:11

ANy views on due to list , Applied Graphene materials, under the wing of I P Group ???

[bobbyshilling] 08/11/2013 13:26

Bogg1e,

Thank you. Yes, I remember Sg had it in the header at one stage. Will make a note of it in a file.

[bogg1e] 08/11/2013 13:07

bobby:

Calculating Iodine Extraction

This is a very basic explanation and rule of thumb guide only. To obtain a fair, approximate calculation we only need the following information:

Volume of water processed (Barrels/bbl) 1 bbl = 159 litres. 6290 bbl = 1 mil litres
Parts Per Million (ppm) of Iodine present in the water
Iodine extraction efficiency (80-98%)

The formula is as follows:

Barrels per day/6290 x ppm = "output " x 0.9 (90% extraction) = "output " kg per day.

The following example is based on existing operational figures:

30,000 (bpd)/6290 (b to l) x 200 (ppm) = 954 (output) x 0.9 (extraction %) = 858 kg per day.

PS The above is thanks to SG btw.

[bad robot] 08/11/2013 12:51

what happened here?

Time for me to load, I believe. I will wait ftill next week to see when it has settled

[bobbyshilling] 08/11/2013 12:50

I'm sorry to be a pain, but can anyone give me the formula for working out plant production, using bpd and ppms? I remember seeing it on the company web site, but can't find it again.

[phoenixs] 08/11/2013 12:45

scrutable,
on L2 there has definitely been reloading on the sell side at 163.5 during the course of today. Having said that there are buyers around and that can't be a bad thing.

[scrutable] 08/11/2013 12:43

Postman Pat

I am only putting 2 and 2 together to make 22. There are others who know more than I do on the subject of output rates. These are certainly rising continuously. From the winks and hints received and all the posts here I have the feeling that IO3 is at last running but only since a few days, but that it is probably at 60% capacity now and will reach 90% in a week's time.

Mainly because of the additional brine streams added, I think IO#3 is likely to produce double the original throughput planned but I will not guess further ahead until we have definitive figures at least for IO#2 or 3- but it does seem probable that we will be able to go firm on forecasts within a month, and that they will be significantly higher than planned a year ago.

[scrutable] 08/11/2013 12:18

Could someone who has access to level 2 and understands how SPs respond to trading volumes explain this mornings action please.

Since 10.02 there have been around 30 Buys totaling close to £100,000 and just one £5000 Sell yet the price has slipped by 0.25p. Does this inevitably mean that there is Sell order for more than 100k overhanging the market? If so our shorter is very determined

[naphar] 08/11/2013 12:15

Scrutable,

I am not sure of your logic. CF stated months ago they are producing excess iodine. I do not think they have reached the 800mt capacity in IOC yet, so all CFs comment means is they are producing more iodine monthly than they need. Even then, I never could understand how we were producing excess iodine at the time of that statement, especially after we had learnt how much was produced in Q1 and Q2. I hate the feeling I am missing something somewhere.

We do not even know yet if IO3 has started producing, and we have no confirmation of the output of IO2, all we know is they have excess brine.
Nevertheless, with IO1-3 running at full capacity, I expect annualised output from those 3 to exceed 800mt.

All IMO

[postman_pat] 08/11/2013 12:13

Scrutable

Thanks for that insight. What are your thoughts on the likely mT/pa for IOF#4, 5 and 6?

[bogg1e] 08/11/2013 12:11

Scrut, tbh ive decided to wait until the new year before trying to calculate yearly exit rates, once we have 1-6 operable, we have a base yearly output to go forward with (cos ppms and brine throughput should be stable and known), a range of iodine retail prices eg $50-65 to calculate revenue variables, with a fair basic ppm to apply to future plants. By end 2015 i have a share price at about £20-25 on a p/e of 20. Im sure the p/e will be higher though.

[scrutable] 08/11/2013 11:59

recent posts state that IOF is sometimes producing quantities surplus to IO-C's capacity of 800mT/pa. With IO#1 output at 100mT/pa, is that not of itself the first official sign, not yet RNSed, that IO#2, originally rated at 200mT and IO#3 at 300mT are already out performing by 40% (700mT./.500) yet IO#3 has probably 50% more capacity to implement as the start up gradually takes on more brine.

The inference is that IO#3 is likely to continue to increase production to 630mT/pa and the three plants to reach 1150mT/pa (100 + 420 +630)very soon.

if so the exit rate at end Dec is likely, with IO#4 by then also on full production to be well above 1600mT.

Would anyone with corroboration of bits of this jigsaw care to increase the accuracy of the whole?

[crazycoops] 08/11/2013 10:04

timbo, that's a bit naughty. NMS I believe is 2,000 so up to that figure shouldn't have to be negotiated, you should get the quoted price.

[phoenixs] 08/11/2013 09:05

superg, thanks for your post on corrosion.

[timbo237] 08/11/2013 09:01

Been trying for the last 10 minutes to buy some online with Halifax. Won't let me buy more than 300 - goes straight to negotiated trade! Surely not a shortage of stock!

[superg1] 08/11/2013 08:34

Csimpson

Trying to read in between the lines, going on previous news releases and comments at the presentation, it seems any supply issues have centred around towers.

I seem to recall it being mentioned they would order extra Titanium towers from the original supplier, to help cover any supply times.

The FRP tank industry is booming in the US due to the Oil industry growth.

They have FRP towers ordered too. If the FRP arrives on time, then the extra towers that arrive are not obsolete as they have they just arrived early for the plants beyond io6.

The towers are the big part, I doubt small tanks and pipes as seen in photos are an issue re supply times they look pretty standard.

On that point, pre any of the recent news, it was asked how long towers take to add on to a waiting plant, and the timeline given was two weeks. I believe that has been repeated in the last few days, to others asking the same question.