Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 23/10/2013 11:15

lol

Danster

120 days is the official timeline for them to complete it. One guy will be dealing with it, so it depends on how busy he is, leave, sick etc, but as a guide the most recent ones I viewed moved from complete to determination to grant between 4 and 9 weeks as I recall (without looking again).

Preliminary determination to grant will surely trigger the first rns, as what that means is permit approved, subject to the public notice objection period.

The public notice period is common to a mass of different matters including oil permits, it's just the way the rules are.

E.G

Just for the last week, there are 206 public notices in various Montana newspapers.

Application correct and complete means it's moving to the determination to grant stage.

The sooner the Ennis analyst gets to grips with the water rules, laws and case law, the better for them if the permit pushes the price up.

US water rights will be more or less the same across states but local rules and processes will differ.

Taking what Bob Shaver (North Dakota water guru) said in a TV news interview, it shows how likely it is that permit will be awarded.

His words, were something like, 'If the application is correct and all the criteria met (tick list, demand, beneficial use etc), then by law they had to award the permit.

That interview was in response to locals objecting to a local farmers permit to sell water from an aquifer, to the oil industry. The locals got their domestic water from it. It made the news, with lots of objections, and the locals were up in arms over it. But at the end of the day, the water rules, and law, took precedence and the permit was awarded.

IOF's application is for the rather large Missouri, and downstream from about 99% plus of Montana permits.

Those that wonder if there is enough water about should just look at the North Dakota map and view the huge lake Sakakawea.

The main interest for the bureau's is around and aquifer depletion, many rights exist for that type of extraction. Just 11% of rights cover Industrial water last time I checked, with 60% plus irrigation.

Under the rules, irrigation rights can not be used for industrial water. However both Montana and ND have emergency temporary rules in place to allow that, otherwise the O and G sector would struggle to drill wells. In time the companies like IOF, with the correct permits will fill the gap and the emergency measures will be lifted, meaning many temporary 'depots' will go offline.

Fast-forward 3 to 5 years and as Bob Shaver says, he thinks water rights would be fully appropriated by then. In other words, enough permits will be out there to use up what they see as the peak use allowable.

At that point, it seems to me, only IOF would be in play to add more to the demand, via their USFW rights swap deal (USFW have around 100,00 acre feet 2 million bpd)), or simply use Atlantis and supply via discharge into the Fresno reservoir area, which feeds into the Missouri (max Fresno daily storage capacity 500k bpd)

A long answer, but hopefully it explains the circs.

[crazycoops] 23/10/2013 10:46

Can't remember if this has been posted already, but does anyone know the average time for the next stage of the water rights application to be processed from "Application correct and complete" to "Preliminary determination to grant? I appreciate the company have stated 120 days from 30 September, but could this be sooner?

Danster, I don't know about the average time but yes, it could be sooner than 120 days. One possible delay is if the applicant requests a meeting (I don't know whether IOF have requested a meeting or indeed, what the value would be) but the main activity in this process is internal form filling and therefore, completely out of IOF's control. Once we have 'Preliminary determination to grant' it is then a public notice period before the application is approved (assuming there are no public objections).

It really is just a case of 'wait and see'. My timeframe is that I hope IOF will be generating water revenue by Q2 2014 and expect that they will be doing so by Q3 2014 at the latest.

[angel of the north] 23/10/2013 10:11

Thanks for that SG - the drops at close don't scare me...the exact opposite! They pi$$ me off enough to try and buy a wedge at 16:29:30 p.m. tho'. My target has always been for these to buy me a little house in U.K. - confident they will.

[che7win] 23/10/2013 10:05

If the iodine price does fall, then it could make IOFINA vulnerable to a takeover sooner rather than later.

It puts our rivals in a corner, one way to solve their problems is to take out the threat:

"The Global Iodine market has also been witnessing an increase in the production capacities of major iodine producers. However, the increasing capital expenditure required for iodine production could pose a challenge to the growth of this market."

[danster4] 23/10/2013 09:56

Can't remember if this has been posted already, but does anyone know the average time for the next stage of the water rights application to be processed from "Application correct and complete" to "Preliminary determination to grant? I appreciate the company have stated 120 days from 30 September, but could this be sooner?

[che7win] 23/10/2013 09:53

The biggest unknown here isn't the rollout, it's the iodine price.

I'm working on $30 margins presently, that may have to reduce or rise into next year, I guess no one knows.

[superg1] 23/10/2013 09:51

Angel of the North
22 Oct'13 - 16:40 - 10118 of 10128

These drops at close really pi$$ me off!


Don't be too disheartened, just over 4 weeks ago that end of day action kept it below 150.

Then spare a thought for the poor folk who were hoping for 75p post the news. I don't quite know what they were reading, but they must be more p'd off then you :-).

I do like the one line I read recently in a post on another thread.

'It is far easier to scare a PI into selling, than it is to persuade them to buy'

But then I'd go further on that line.

'It is far easier to scare an investor into selling (with lies and misinformation) than it is to persuade then to buy (with well-researched and documented facts)'.

The latter takes a lot more work, the former is as easy as shelling peas and takes seconds,it just requires no morals at all, easy money, as they say.

We all know that, the BB's are full of it, on the bull and bear side.

You can see why the AIM is ignored by the main investors, as CEO's in many cases over the years, have put out rns news, with the lies and BS in them, knowing it is lies.

[bobsworth] 23/10/2013 08:47

Having fully topped up now I just wish that supply line would now dry up!

It probably explains why we have been getting those end of day fall backs wiping out the days gains as the supply drops a few more into the market.

Fingers crossed we will also get a news update soon on the roll out of their mobile units which could for iodine production be significant.

With no site preparation, building and commissioning etc their rate of roll out could be very quick i.e. hook up and switch on.

[superg1] 23/10/2013 08:08

The key for them is a supply being available in numbers at the time of close.

The longer they leave it the higher the risk of it going against them imo.

There is a supply, so now would be the time to cash in. If a fund appears and takes the supply, it makes things difficult when trying to close, but they do hang on a bit as they did in Ocado. There they went short at under £1 and waited until over £2 to close.

I don't think we will be under their average, with 6 plants running and a water depot on the way.

I mindful we could get all 6 by the year end or that may slip depending on suppliers of the goods (as in the towers in a prior rns), that could push some back a few weeks.

But then if I push io6 out to the end of February that is just 18 weeks away.

Or if done by the end of December 47 trading days to go. That would be 35000 shares to 'buy' each day until then to close.

It's best they hope the water permit guy is busy, and takes his time filling in the preliminary determination to grant rights form.

I doubt anyone is in a position to object to IOF's permit, as being so far East in Montana, there are unlikely to be many (if any) senior permits downstream of them. It rarely happens anyway and law/case law supports the award of permits.

[cool hand kev] 22/10/2013 22:39

if they buy back it will only push the share price higher and with a IO3 update soon Hmmm
when The share price breaks 185 nxt stop 200 IMO
No trades at EOD to bring the share price back

[bobsworth] 22/10/2013 22:14

johncsimpson

Thanks for that insight. That's a lot of shares they need to start buying.

If they wait until we have news and its good, attracting other buyers, we might see a decent rise in the share price.

[che7win] 22/10/2013 21:14

Bobsworth,
He's too busy over at TUNG making classic posts like the below. Makes IOF cheap under 400p I guess, but it is blunt.


N3tleyLucas 22 Oct'13 - 13:03 - 25 of 26 0 0

It's easy to value mate, 100m x share price .. you mean judge it against peers and the general market?

Now that's tricky, no broker or company est's yet. My rule of thumb is MV/10 = pre-tax 2 years out = about right. So £23m FY 2015, more and it's cheap, less dear.

Of course that's my blunt measure of good/bad value... there are certainly more refined ways.

[johncsimpson] 22/10/2013 20:40

Some 'rough' calculations re Ennismore short(s) based on the current IOF shares issued - i.e. 127.28M.

I have worked out the number of shares borrowed for the various percentages disclosed on the given dates. This is a bit 'ball-park' since the disclosed percentages may be rounded to 2 decimal places.

The next problem is at what prices Ennismore took the short and, of course, then resold to the market. I have taken the absolute best and absolute worst case possible for each date; the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. But this gives a rough idea.

I have calculated that the total number of shares that Ennismore need to rebuy is 1,641,919.

In the best case scenario, to close the short at £1.80 would realise £586K 'profit'.

In the best case scenario, to close the short at £1.90 would realise £422k 'profit'.

In the best case scenario, to close the short at £2.00 would realise £258k 'profit'.

In the best case scenario, to close the short at £2.10 would realise £94k 'profit'.

In their worst case scenario they would have to buy at £2.00 to break even. In the best case scenario the buying price might be as high as £2.15 to break even.

These are, I suggest, fairly accurate 'probabilities' but if anyone wishes to see my spread sheet you can view it at the following link:



It's an editable, excel spread sheet so you can play around with the numbers and in case you're worrying there's no sign up routine so you won't be inundated with nagging emails etc. coz you don't have to reveal anything - just download the file by pasting the link into your browser.

[escapetohome] 22/10/2013 20:37

Hope you all got some of my AGL tip - just a small token payment for your help in keeping me invested in IOF.

[bonnylad] 22/10/2013 17:53

Patience needed!

[tackems] 22/10/2013 17:45

Me too Bonny Lad!

[bobsworth] 22/10/2013 17:10

Gosh little in the way of postings today.

Even the Filtered nutty has been quite too, proving its only here to counter folks postings.

Fingers crossed its the lull before the storm and nutty and its gang get blown away into the gutter where they belong!

[angel of the north] 22/10/2013 16:40

These drops at close really pi$$ me off!

[jbe81] 22/10/2013 15:46

looks like the seller has gone, cantor was the mm selling and they have disappeared. gold up today too

[superg1] 22/10/2013 13:02

Thanks Jbe

I must have a closer look, it's just one of those forgotten shares that has dawdled around in a small range for some time.

[jbe81] 22/10/2013 12:01

superg we are at the point when we will find out if now is the time aaz will start to move. A major shareholder selling 6 million shares has kept the price where it is. If he has finished selling, which will become apparent this week, will start to move

[king_roster_iii] 22/10/2013 11:34

Jackster, many thanks.

[king_roster_iii] 22/10/2013 09:52

Retiree,Is there much supply around?