Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[beercapafn] 19/6/2024 08:37

DK37: That is extremely interesting and relevant.

Thanks very much.

Looks like the BOD has not read the rules. So really have not considered the mechanics of how or any serious plans for a buyback.

[naphar] 18/6/2024 17:14

They won’t clear that beer… they got the permissions so they can buy large blocks that become available and are not just sold in the market… they can then negotiate on price. The AB block is the example but they didn’t have authority to buy at the time.
So if Newlands, Sneller etc wanted to sell, I expect they would then try to negotiate a deal, buy, then either cancel them or drip feed them into the market over time for a profit.
A 350k sell order wasn’t even £70k, below their radar I think

[beeezzz] 18/6/2024 09:58

naphar...Thanks...Seems we still have sellers at this price...

[beercapafn] 18/6/2024 07:13

there is a large overhang from the 350,000 sell order at 19p last week. Just the opportunity for IOF to clear out the overhang. Just saying.

[naphar] 18/6/2024 06:54

Fft I don’t know how long the brine contracts are for, but I would say maybe 20 years, on the basis that the 2 renewed this year we’re seeing their first renewal I believe.

On the chemicals side, the roi of chemicals vs iodine extraction was discussed and it was clearly stated iodine production has the better roi, by a long way I would suggest

[fft] 18/6/2024 01:18

Do you have any idea how long the supply contracts are for the brine suppliers ? Are they are a rolling 2 year or similar ? Or is there no break clause, so they could stop supplying brine tomorrow (in the case of an oil price shock for example). Not having control over the brine supply is one of the big issues and makes forecasts more than 2 or 3 years out risky. I suggested to Tom a few years ago that they shouldn't build any more plants, and concentrate on the chemical derivative side. They can buy iodine in to add value, but should also build up the non iodine business. But, despite many RNS's mentioning chemical upgrades (one for the fortune 500 company springs to mind that never got mentioned again?) there never seems to be the growth I expected. Disappointing.

[naphar] 17/6/2024 21:25

“That’s assuming they don’t decommission other plants”

Which is why I asked how stable the other plants are and was told currently seem to be stable with a good longevity ahead, with no reason to believe currently that any of them would need to be closed. Of course things can change and I suspect a significant reduction in iodine price could cause such a closure, as could a problem with wells supplying brine to a plant, but both issues seemed unlikely in next couple of years at least, based on discussions.

[beeezzz] 17/6/2024 20:49

That's assuming they don't decommission other plants, siting new plants in areas which maximize plant output...would sound obvious..

[chillpill] 17/6/2024 08:40

As it stands CC have production estimates of:
2024 650t
2025 790t
2026 975t

So 1000t pa run rate expected to be reached during 2026- consistent with what Naph is saying.

[naphar] 17/6/2024 06:18

Beeezzz I think IO10 and the improvements to IO9 they could be on a run rate of 750-800mt.
So they would need to have IO11&12 in place to be in a run rate of 1000mt. Or IO11 would need to be a “mega” plant, and that may then get them there. I think it’s a 2026-2027 goal, so no, it “soon” in most people’s definition of the term.

[beeezzz] 16/6/2024 20:21

Thanks naphar....

Just trying to get enthusiastic...for a 1000mt pa...not anytime soon...

[naphar] 16/6/2024 16:48

Beeezzz they never quote figures for each plant really.
2,4,6,7,8 will have different amounts of brine being delivered with differing ppm’s. And some if not all of those are in areas where there is not much rig activity, so they are ticking over on a steady consistent basis. At least some used to have submersible pumps, which delivered the oil quicker than the current system. When they changed brine volumes reduced and therefore well longevity, also IO plant longevity, increased.

3 & 5 were partially used in later plants, thinks like towers etc. pipework, ducting, cabling and things like that apparently could not really be re-used. Savings were not as great as we might have expected.

[beeezzz] 16/6/2024 14:38

If I remember right, company would achieve 1000mt pa. which is why I would like production figures for each plant and why some are doing better than others.

I imagine decommissioned plants have be cannibalized and parts incorporated in new plants, save money and time...

[naphar] 16/6/2024 14:00

I think IO10 is likely to be later in Q3 than earlier as well. Late August if we are lucky.

[chillpill] 16/6/2024 07:17

Thanks Bocker. If they can sign up IO#11 in next 2/3 months that will be a great boost as it then has the chance of being operational by next April.

[bocker01] 15/6/2024 21:29

Well it’s certainly going to be up and running next quarter. I think we’ll hear on IO11 too.

[chillpill] 15/6/2024 20:14

For some reason I’m not expecting it to be complete until late August/September.I think that judgement came from the picture they showed in the recent online presentation.

They did say they would update progress on social media.

[bocker01] 15/6/2024 15:36

I formed the impression that IO10 is close

[chillpill] 15/6/2024 09:36

I’m guessing nothing new on IO#10 and 11 timelines?

[naphar] 14/6/2024 21:33

Beeezzz not entirely sure what you are getting at in your last post.
Yes it seems some of the 5 plants before IO9 must be doing less than 100mt. We don’t ask for plant by plant run rates at the AGM.

What we did talk about was the sustainability of the current plants and it’s felt they could have a decent longevity ahead of them, barring anything unforeseen happening. Ultimately they could use more brines to get volumes up, but there isn’t really new drilling in those areas to make that happen. The oil companies do, however, seem to be reworking wells in various ways and that’s helping to keep oil production going. From memory, the underground pumps they used to use were stopped and now a different process is used, which essentially results in lower oil production rates but longer life of the wells.

On another note, someone asked about operating old disposal wells again. The board are still looking at it but apparently quite a few different aspects have to be right for it to work, the economics are different to the current model and I got the impression it’s more capital intensive for one thing. So it may be something that comes to fruition in a few years, it’s not something just around the corner. It’s been spoken about for so long, it was good to get some more insights and to know it’s a slow burn potential option.

“Mobile” units were not discussed at all this year, unless as part of a side discussion afterwards. Potential high ppm sites were mentioned though, but in passing.

[naphar] 14/6/2024 12:06

Have edited my post from yesterday to add more context when I said nothing to get excited about, as in the discussion, I was comparing to 2012 and the excitement that drive the share price to £2.50… compared to that, I don’t feel excited.

Like many here, I still see the current share price as well under value. It just seem inconceivable that we are basically debt free and valued at such a low level.

As I said yesterday, management have to just keep delivering and eventually the retake will/should come. When we are at an annual run rate of 1000mt, maybe that will be the catalyst. Either way, growth plans are in place, the board are excited about the opportunities ahead of them, just slightly cautious I think in communicating those opportunities at this stage.

The new areas they are looking at look promising though, with the potential for a larger plant somewhere in next couple of years maybe, if things come to fruition.

[naphar] 14/6/2024 11:56

Huh? Including IO9 we have 6 plants operational now, IO10 will make that 7.

IO 1,3,5 were shut down.

IO9 is said to be doing about 110mt run rate currently and plans are in place to move that nearer to 150, but the oil co has to implement the plans to make that happen, it’s down to being able to dispose of the water they run through the IO9 location, SWD upgrade works or something like that are needed