Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 28/6/2013 11:24

net, im wondering how sb's, which are bets on the direction of a share, and as far as i am aware do not involve any ownership of the share, can effect the share price? (Btw i dont sb very much - tried it but with little success tbh)

[n3tleylucas] 28/6/2013 11:19

"So, are you saying that all the hard work done here is futile?"

Don't think he's being that blunt lol ... I think he's saying be aware, don't just listen to what you want to hear.

[worraps] 28/6/2013 11:16

Titus post 4118

"a cuddly environment where hopes, beliefs and expectations based on whatever one calls "research" are seen as entitlement is deluded"

So, are you saying that all the hard work done here is futile?

I must agree on your point that "Financial markets have developed to suit speculators". Which is why in my opinion, us PIs might just as well be flotsam on a storm tossed sea

[engelo] 28/6/2013 11:11

testuser (4109)

Chemical manufacture at the plants is a very interesting new angle on IOF's methodology. Evidently some original thinking going on.

This leads on to a question of logisitics. May have been discussed before if so apologies, but trying to get it clear in my head.

Background: As things are I believe that out of the large plants there must be 2 products, one is the crude MUD and the second is high purity 'raw' iodine from the crystallisation towers. The mini iosorbs produce MUD and this is planned to be transported to say I02 for crystallisation.

Also assume that raw iodine is saleable around the prices we have been talking about and that prilled iodine fetches slightly more.

IOf are also talking about selling MUD to the marketplace if there is demand. They have said that the first step of some customers for raw iodine is to 'depurefy' it (I forget the word used). Presumably MUD is a new product from the market's POV.

Are the products from the main plants to Kentucky and the minis to the main plants transported by tanker/road/rail?

Does there need to be a distribution centre, presumably at Kentucky, or could parts of this function be delegated to the IO2 etc sites?

[warrensearle] 28/6/2013 11:03

Titus I take it you are referring to scruts embarrassing "can't see the woods from the trees" rant to jeff at the PI presentation? Thankfully he was cut off before he could mention ASOS too many times

[titus10] 28/6/2013 10:57

Maca (4096)

Thankyou! One of the best posts yet on this thread, imo.

For me, the comparatively new phenomenon of the internet bulletin board has been extraordinarily enlightening regarding the ideas behind some PI behaviour. Indeed, some views expressed here regarding 2-way trading have been simply jaw-dropping.

We deal in financial instruments on public exchanges. Sellers balance buyers in open markets, generally speaking. Sure, the city slickers have always taken advantage of the cupidity of the punter and there are some, by no means always effective, rules in the best-regulated exchanges to keep the boat afloat in extraordinary circumstances. I've been caught by "fast market" declarations when Futures trading in the past (a financial cardiac arrest if ever there was one) and I agree with maca's penultimate paragraph about transparency.

But come on! Financial markets have developed to suit speculators. Anyone who decides as an individual to invest/trade/bet on AIM and expect a cuddly environment where hopes, beliefs and expectations based on whatever one calls "research" are seen as entitlement is deluded.

Surely if one goes along with democracy and "free" markets one may expect contrary views and actions to be as allowable as one's own?

Shareholder power is nevertheless an interesting subject. Leaving aside large multinationals, some now more powerful than many governments, the possibility in the digital age that PIs may be sufficiently well-informed about a company's situation and activities to tell it what it should be doing is intriguing.

Is it productive to tell a company director at an investor's meeting that he doesn't recognise the value of the business he is responsible for, for example?
Maybe. Can't remember why Richard Branson took a company he built private...

[ramu kumar] 28/6/2013 10:44

Guys, enough has been posted about the share price drop - reasons, analysis etc. etc. I know it hurts but there's only so much post mortem one can do. We all, inexperienced or hard nosed investors have learned a lot and that knowledge is priceless. Can we please, please move on, thanks.

Post 4112 from awol - can anyone shed some light, TIA.

[worraps] 28/6/2013 10:38

.....4110 adjusted. Apologies again, quite unintended the way it sounded.

[worraps] 28/6/2013 10:35

retiree.....sorry, that was badly worded. I of course simply meant his ill health and resignation!! The word demise was simply an indication of what has happened to the shareprice as a result. Yes, I know that he is still in operation as a consultant, and very pleased about that I am too. I have paid many huge compliments about Lance, as far as I am concerned, as I have said, he is the one who has brought this company this far, and how unfair life can be to give him health problems, possibly as a result.

Of course, I will edit my post, and remove this incorrect word. It was not intended the way it has been taken.

[retiree] 28/6/2013 10:30

EDIT ..... post corrected Thx

[spideyyy] 28/6/2013 10:30

thanks testeruser...the more i look into this company the more
excited i am.they just need to roll out their plan for the next 18months+

[awolagain] 28/6/2013 10:26

Water Conference

Do we expect to have some news on how it was received...or does anyone here already know??

Thanks all

[worraps] 28/6/2013 10:25

Yes, SCRUTABLE, you have indeed been prudent! I am hoping that Lance's health issues, and resignation, is THE ONLY black swan, and that one day I will actually learn from these unexpected events, and proceed with more caution. I am foolishly 'all in' here, and am suffering as a consequence.

Edit:- I am a little surprised at how much there was to discuss and research about IOF when the shares were doing well, and how little there is to discuss now we've had this crash. A trait of human nature I expect. I suppose we're all waiting and hoping for some good company news to re-generate things.

[testuser123] 28/6/2013 10:24

Spidey - you're correct on the 800 tonnes. The strategy around expansionmainly centres around having on site distributed production of the low value ionic compounds (Lance has confirmed to me that they are already working on onsite Hydroiodic acid (HI) production at IO2, once that is in place you just add pottasium carbonate and you've got potassium iodide (KI) which is one of the main compounds for the agricultural markets).

This will free up capacity at IOC for the more complex, higher margin organic compounds.

Beyond that they can start utilising IOC's disaster recovery site (yeah seriously they have one), ie: they use them in active/active rather than active/passive. After that they can put up new buildings next to the current site (they have already bought the land).

[spideyyy] 28/6/2013 10:24

thks ...understood

[scrutable] 28/6/2013 10:19

spideyyy:

It was 700kg/day or approx 200mT/pa - based on 300 days effective production . now raised to 1000kg/day

[scrutable] 28/6/2013 10:15

I suppose people now understand why however enthusiastic I may be about IOF's future and its stellar but bumpy share price performance, I am careful to keep my portfolio balanced.

I would not otherwise still be here trading strongly though chastened once again.

Was it not the black swan I warned about - Lance's misfortune?

ASOS nearly went out of business with their warehouse fire.

Why else does insurance work?

[spideyyy] 28/6/2013 10:09

Hello Scrutable
Thanks for your post.I just want to check something.In my notes from PI presentation and AGM ive got IOC process upto 800t per year.Have I got this wrong -is it per month
Many thanks

[uppompeii] 28/6/2013 09:43

So many conspiracy theories and machiavellian plotting here! There are any number of shares that have followed this pattern, no matter how good the story they get beyond themselves and got slaughtered. The threads have sung the same story of projections and profits many times before delivery arrives or fails. This may be one of the few that is the exception and I still hold some from fortunately much lower however it is still priced such that it cannot afford more delays or the slightest slip. I dont doubt sg1s research, nor anyone elses, hell I think netley makes good points. But I take no notice of this bb's projections etc, I'll go with actual figures and rns details of production rather than speculative stuff.
But as many know, especially scrutable, from eg the bprg/meldex debacle it doesnt always work out. If some with an sb had had a stop in place I'm sure there would be happier people here, you may get taken out 5% or 10% every now and then if its too tight but I'd prefer that to a 40 or 50% drop. Its insane not to have a stop in place on a share such as this IF you are geared to high heaven unless you are happy to lose all you deposit and more. I'd agree not if it were a dead cert, and it may be close to that soon, but in the meantime what happened this week while not being inevitable is always a risk. Not a perfect storm of circumstance but ceo resigning, poor rns, poor market, delays and then sb capitulation almost made it so. Im not so sure this is attached to the market but it didn't help on such a bad day.
Its where it is, at least if anyone has an sb open their funding costs are down 40%!

[baguette] 28/6/2013 09:35

Just an observation that I welcome this period of more calm and rationality in the BB posts. I recently unfiltered N3t as to be honest his logic in many respects is very sound and coincides with mine it offers a counterfoil to the more ramping messages.

No I don't think the shares will hit 75p (don't actually think he does either). The shares at present are worth no more than they are today and that will remain true until maybe 2 of the 5 key deliverables comes to pass.Then people will have tangible evidence of moving from the end of the beginning phase to the beginning of the end phase (or next phase).

Someone posted that the company should provide some first half indications early. That to me would be just the wrong thing to do as I cannot see how those results could be good with limited productive output and steeply rising costs - surely best to delay them as long as possible. Once io3 is in place the situation will change very quickly and frankly unless there is some bad news out there prospects for 2014 look terrific.

[orslega] 28/6/2013 09:25

Hargreaves Lansdown have a policy of not lending out any client shares - one less shorting possibility : )

[maca1212] 28/6/2013 09:16

retiree,

Exactly, and that is what is known as a bear squeeze (very nice when that happens and you are a holder).

The issue is that while direct purchase of a share these days is easy and every year more 'newbies' enter the market with their pension and ISA funds, ploughing them into securities and venturing into the 'funfair' areas like the AIM market.

Shorting requires access to a slightly more sophisticated set of services (only slight;y these days mind) and therefore is more likely to be inhabited by more 'savvy' investors, so in some respects more weight should be given to the 'short' case than the long case - bit like football teams - share supporters tend to be more voluble and connected (as in this forum), while 'antis' or even 'undecideds' are a more diffuse group but may have greater clarity in their analysis (assuming it is dispassionate and not mere trollery).

M

[diggulden] 28/6/2013 09:15

Nev, its Quote Stream through iii. £26 a month.

[dcgray21] 28/6/2013 09:11

Maca - Good post and agree 100% with your final para. I am in stocks at the moment ( CUP and IQE ) that have been badly beaten by aggressive shorting.Being relatively new to investment , this is something I hadnt considered but now believe imperative in your due dil investment process.

However the one downside as we know can be the destructive nature given the use of stop losses widely delpoyed by investors . Clever algorithims used by Hedge funds and the like allow wide collapses of share prices in short periods of time that have no relationship to the intinsic value a company is generating and can have a destructive impact on such companies and PI holdings. That comes close to distorting the market IMHO.