Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 31/12/2014 09:14

Sand

A bit hot but I can see where he gets his figures from. I believe the pods are proven as all they are is a smaller version of known successful method. They just wanted to improve the design for wind etc. However they have made tweaks on big plants so it will be a continual optimising process.

I asked the question at the AGM re available sites for mobiles.

They gave a range of 200ppm to 1000ppm. Obviously they will target the sites that give the best returns.

Mobile can do 10k bpd max.

On a 1000ppm site a pod would do 142 kg per day per 1000 bpd.

There will be a very good chance of mid range ppm on 5000bpd plus.

IOF have been on about cost cutting and I'm sure that will include savings on plant design too. I have no doubt the last few months have been all about that so that they get the optimum returns per $1 spent.

[che7win] 31/12/2014 09:09

The numpties on the other thread thought we would have to fund raise at the interims.

Actual result, cash and cash equivalent: $5.25 million on balance sheet.

Then, they said we were burning cash, in fact we were building cash since H1, up to $7.5m by September.

This, despite ongoing capex and against a backdrop of the dominant producer SQM flexing its muscles.

We are the lowest cost producer, 30% less than world prices and improving, cash building, admin falling and in cash generation mode.

A congratulations in order to current management for setting us on a sustainable projectory into 2015.

[bobsworth] 31/12/2014 09:04

Happy New Year Everyone!

[che7win] 31/12/2014 09:01

Gee, let's see if this hopelessly incompetent derampers prediction holds true, one day to go:

jonnybig 29 Mar'14 - 13:24 - 7179 of 7193 1 1

Yours
"Predicting IOF will be bust by the end of the year"
JonnyB:)

[che7win] 31/12/2014 07:40

Bocker,
I expect expansion, but my point was that without any more plants, we will expand at an 80-90% rate for iodine production which is impressive.

However, without knowing expansion plans and when they kick in, I'm trying to fill in the blanks.
As Boggle suggests, maybe they have ways to keep on sweating the current assets better than we have previously thought.

I keep seeing Tom mention ongoing efficiency of existing plants. I believe they could work with the O&G operators to get much higher PPM rates to current plants, that would be the cheapest way to increase production in my opinion.
Io2 should be throwing off iodine at 1.4mt or higher alone, it has done that rate before, so I welcome Toms comments about ongoing improvements.

Don't forget our costs are coming down, we were still making efficiency gains in admin and other expenses in August, we won't see the full benefit until next year. However, H2 should show improvement in profit metrics over H1.

We will also benefit from reduced staffing and better retention if oil workers are laid off, average wage for O&G workers in Texas had reached $186,000 if my memory serves me right. Incidentally, that is why shale breakeven going forward will reduce.

Anyway, suffice to say I expect H2 will be at or near cash flow positive, that will be a massive result if achieved.

[sandbag] 31/12/2014 01:01

Bogg1e,
"I estimate that a mobile should produce between 0.35 to 1.35 tonnes per day. That means a mobile is a 100 ton per year min plant. 10 would cost $9 mil and add 1000 tonnes per year min to output. Easy to become no 1 in the US next year, provided mobile manufacturing lead times are well managed."

They haven't built and proved, repeat, built and proved, one mobile yet. Keep your feet on the ground FFS!
Your shirts are dazzling you man. Wear shades! ;-)

[naphar] 31/12/2014 00:11

Bogg1e
How on earth do you get to a figure of $20m in bank at end of the year? Thats tomorrow! Last public known sum was $7.5m a few months ago. I cant see how they have generated $12.5m since then, would love to be wrong but cannot see it being likely, max 20% chance imo.

[bogg1e] 30/12/2014 23:50

bocker. 600-700 tonnes per year targeted for next year according to the BOD, but thats from the existing plant infrastructure. maybe more if the fracking disruptions come to an end before the end of Q1 (although Im expecting aprilish). However, I have them at about $20 mil in the bank by year end, which would be the funds to support expansion even without revenue from the water permit. Additionally, we have the japanese takeoff agreements to consider, who may pay for additonal infrastructure. i wouldnt like to guess next years run rate but im sure they will reach 5 tonnes per day production by the end of the year. Now remember that we only need just over 3 tonnes per day to become the biggest iodine producer in the US, and then hopefully we become of interest to a buyer. I estimate that a mobile should produce between 0.35 to 1.35 tonnes per day. That means a mobile is a 100 ton per year min plant. 10 would cost $9 mil and add 1000 tonnes per year min to output. Easy to become no 1 in the US next year, provided mobile manufacturing lead times are well managed.

[superg1] 30/12/2014 23:35

Bocker

If that is what you are expecting.

'I expect an exit run-rate next year of 1250 to 1500 tons pa and a price of 50 dollars a kilo.'

Then going on comments they have made, that would be $37m to $45m gross profit yearly rate on the raw product.

Considering all that we know about IOF leases, and the problems in Chile, then your expectations are not excessive.

I expect prices to rise in 2015 and I expect IOF to add more production, that's why I'm in. We don't need water, but my confidence grows with each day that we will get the permit.

[superg1] 30/12/2014 23:27

Bocker

Back in August they were expecting 1.7mt per day and that's a yearly rate of 620 mt.

I think the hoped for target once they had tweaked io5 and 6 with decent brine flows would put them over the 800mt mark.

Bogg1e

The prior team put some plants at lower ppm sites, on the expansion they have much higher ppm sites to target, so when they add plants or pods the overall opex will come down.

As long as the next fish is more economical than their smallest catch it will be that way for some time. Then as they expand they may be able to throw the small fish back (like io1) which takes the opex down again.

[bocker01] 30/12/2014 22:41

535 tons next year would be difficult to reconcile or to accept. In fact it would be risable. IO2, lets not forget should and can do well more than half of that on its own. What's more adding new production capacity is not optional, it is mandatory and its what this company claims to be about. Ie becoming a world leader in iodine production. I expect an exit run-rate next year of 1250 to 1500 tons pa and a price of 50 dollars a kilo.

[dcgray21] 30/12/2014 22:41

Che

I believe it was at the AGM that IOF stated 150% year on year growth was being targeted so that would equate to 875mT off an exit of say 350mT this year . 600 mT 'organic' leaves 275mT to 'find' . Still hard to reconcile 875mT FY15 alongside the comment of being the no.1 iodine producer .

[bogg1e] 30/12/2014 22:36

I wouldnt worry about extra plants; if all plants have the capacity to purify iodine at the same rate as IO2 can produce (1 tonne per day), then they have 6 plants x 350 days = 2100 tonnes minimum iodine purifying capacity. Why build more plants when they could use minis until the current plants are running out of capacity to purify iodine? In fact why bother with major plants going forward? Have loads of mobiles and centralised hubs where purifucation and prilling take place?

[che7win] 30/12/2014 21:58

Superg,
Indeed, from 171mt in 2013, up to 325 to 350 mt expected iodine production this year.

That is impressive growth, albeit we expected much more (if the new plants had been sited in better locations).

The question is, where is the growth coming from next year to take us beyond 535MT from current plants?

I think the current 6 can get better still, perhaps up to 600mt on them. So if we have no new plants next year, we should expect 80-90% increases in raw iodine production from this year.

Another three full size plants next year or mobiles? Hard to know, then we have water venture which will come.

Iodine prices rising will be the cherry on top, then we throw off cash with the gearing.

[superg1] 30/12/2014 21:42

Vermilion is interesting too.

They are a Canadian company but had no interest in the US until last month when they took a small interest last month.

Completed Vermilion's first acquisition in the United States at a cost of approximately $11.1 million. Through the transaction, we acquired approximately 68,000 acres of land (98% undeveloped) in the Powder River basin of northeastern Wyoming.

That type of interest isn't unlike the circumstances of IOF's acreage.

[superg1] 30/12/2014 21:33

I occasionally check linkedin to see what connections appear alongside IOF employees.

I note in recent times persons from other chemical companies, which has been an area almost completely absent, a few energy company names too.

An interesting twist on the apparent connections in areas I have not seen before. IOF are obviously becoming more well known in the US.


NOTE fidelity energy and the acquisition manager, Fidelity's largest holdings are in central and eastern Montana. Such 'coincidences' do catch my attention.
Fidelity are part of MDU resources who started in the Montana and ND area decades ago and are now a multi-billion company.



MGF Chemical (VP sales)

Interchem Corporation (director of sales and business)

Kingchem LLC (snr VP)

Deforest enterprises (president)

Air products and chemicals (project manager)


Then on energy companies.

Peakview energy (The owner)

Fidelity Exploration (Aquisition manager)



Vermilion energy (director business development)

[superg1] 30/12/2014 20:57

Cyber

Just to add figures they had produced 216 mt up to the end of Q3.

So to get into the 325-350 range they need 109mt to 134 mt for Q4. They did 139.9mt for H1

That means 36.3mt to 44.6mt per month for Q4.

That's a 435 mt to 535 mt per year rate.

They produced 171mt last year, so this year will be around double that, then next year should be at least double again, perhaps 3 times or more.

[infoisrealnot] 30/12/2014 20:56

Thanks for the response - It would be great if your main tips both FUM and IOF would get up off the floor, after all the hard work and research that yourself and others have done on these shares.

These share prices are not reflecting the potential.

Time for payback methinks.

[cyberbub] 30/12/2014 17:32

Official production update next week maybe? Despite the 'hint' in the last RNS, it would be nice if we had hit the upper end of the predicted range..

[rovi67] 30/12/2014 15:05

superg1 no wonder your in;- (I)'m (O)ld (F)ashioned lol

[superg1] 30/12/2014 13:27

It did ok from the original 17/18p tip but the delivery didn't match the promise mainly down to unfortunate circs. The one thing it does have intact is the promise. The circs for other producers have significantly deteriorated in the last 2 years, and will continue that way.

Starcom is on my watch list due to the products they have. It had been drifting on no volumes so I was just watching for any changes, or hints that something may be going on. A few weeks back someone was trickle buying, and causing the price to move on small buys. That suggested shares were tight with potential news of some type due to the buying. Someone asked on the tips thread for any that look set to double. The tip was something was up, and any decent buying I expected rises in the same way ATUK went.

Yesterday proved the suspicion, and probable share price impact was spot on.


I'm watching another. To the blind it looks like it's connected to one major interest but the web of potential is far larger. A finger in one pie has the Saudi's taking a large stake in that sector/company.

If anything happens to suggest something is up, and perhaps a big move due, I'll mention it.

Note I said I hadn't bought any Starcom. I didn't but it would be easy to gloat about making a good return there, but unlike some folk, I prefer the truth (call me old fashioned).


I see IOF as a very good long term bet, and still can't find anything else with has genuine significant potential.

There are loads that have potential, but a far higher risk with little chance of success.

[infoisrealnot] 30/12/2014 12:25

I hope this one does as well as your starcom tip, but it seems to be taking a whole lot longer.

[superg1] 30/12/2014 11:49

Nice bounce for the QFI folk, probably helped by a forced seller gone.

Neddo I think you just lost your moaning rights :-)

[joestalin] 30/12/2014 11:47

I could do, but you got rather conceited about it the last time.