Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[shroder] 05/1/2015 11:12

superg1, n/p

I tend to follow a few of these from time time time, no one seemed to have mentioned it hence my post.

[shroder] 05/1/2015 11:03

I have looked at the link you supplied which doesn't feature an epic code, it could be for another stock?

It should say something like this in the URL

ANY&IdValue=iof&ChartType

Your link

ANY&IdValue=B2QL5C7&ChartType

[superg1] 05/1/2015 11:02

Shroder

I don't think some shorted 5 mill in one day, I suspect that data linked is all mess up or fabricated by someone.

The other one has fitted when Ennis and others closed.

However I would love their to be 7 million shares short right now, because that's a hell of a lot of shares to have to buy back and we at some point would see outrageous share price increases when they would have to do that.

[shroder] 05/1/2015 10:57

monts12, your link looks similar but the output is different.

Image posted as link too long (see above)

[superg1] 05/1/2015 10:56

Monts that link messes up the screen can you remove it. I put it in the header of another iof thread for reference.

[superg1] 05/1/2015 10:53

Which xmas as the short info I follow shows the shorts have reduced since then to under 1 mill shares now.

There just isn't the risk reward here for a short now.

While I'm waiting for detail of the water (I expect a hearing date to appear) I can't gauge when water talks may conclude. If it's Hal they have a full deal report on that from before although it could need some tweaks.

Then there is that Fidelitiy oil Acquisition manager that appeared alongside IOF managers on linkedin which has my curiosity going. Vermilion guys too who recently took their first interest in US leases just over the Southern Montana border.

Then comes the iodine producers situation in Chile which could make a massive shift at any given time and turn the market upside down.

All about timing now imo from some good returns in the coming years.

I recall that comment by SQM some time ago when they said they expected $37 per kg. What I didn't know is they could predict that as that is where they were taking it. For Q4 last year they suggested a possible low of $30 and seem to have taken it near there. They then quote the bottom will either be Q4 2014 or early 2015. Their timeline is due to not knowing what inventories others have left. It seems they wanted the struggling companies to be forced to sell any inventories at rock bottom prices to reduce their cash flow.


Iodine supply at risk

RB 1200mt rate, 1600mt last year. Highly likely to go bust within months.

Cosayach were on a suggested 3500mt last year into this. 38 wells closed, 2 banks have sued them. Chile IRS tax fraud. Over $200 mill in compensation and fines in play, less than half that. Coin flip re if they survive, I favour SQM taking them out.

SQM
Neuve Victoria production at risk which has been 6000mt of their production in recent years. Recent severe droughts and water laws could mean they have water rights suspended and that would destroy the production market. When the Japan issue came about SQM had a large inventory, but still prices hit $100 kg.
If their rights are suspended the impact would be far harder than ever seen before in the iodine industry.

38% of SQM revenue under threat re a legal dispute over lithium and nitrate leases.

Bulmine and Algorta probably loss making at these prices.

Q1 into Q2 is the active time in the iodine market so as we move through H1, the production cutbacks should start to hit, and have an impact on prices, without any of the above.

[monts12] 05/1/2015 10:39

I can't see any evidence of that Shroder:

Edited

What is your source for that information?

[shroder] 05/1/2015 10:25

The short interest took a three fold jump just before Xmas, possibly a hedge.

[superg1] 04/1/2015 21:36

Ck

I'm leaning towards the water update being identical to the last one, one very weak point to cover. Going on all the previous information posted and protocols, it seems no one has replied leaving just the original part mentioned in the rns.

We could see a production update too this week.

[captain_kurt] 04/1/2015 19:35

Heartwell, we will see hopefully this week.

[bocker01] 04/1/2015 18:20

double post!

[bocker01] 04/1/2015 18:20

That would make sense Tackems. Announcing something is built and working is more in line with the new approach than saying we are planning to do something and then announcing various unforeseen delays. I think they know that now.

[superg1] 04/1/2015 18:13

Tackems at one AGM they said some design changes were to do with wind stability as I recall.

[tackems] 04/1/2015 17:02

I would not be at all surprised if IOF have trialled a mobile plant because from my notes of the AGM, Lance said "... we will build mobile plants as soon as we are comfortable with some of the design changes... and that could be in the next few weeks or the next 6 months" It will be interesting to hear how they have got on if, as said there is an expected update soon. I also remember he mentioned that they had the pads (and power supplies) inplace at one location when he showed a photo/artist impression of one.

[joestalin] 04/1/2015 14:14

He is getting conceited again.

[neddo] 04/1/2015 12:31

nat grid divi on Wednesday lubbly jubbly, that is no dream , reality.

[neddo] 04/1/2015 12:30

joe s

no joe , I leave the dreaming to you.

[flying pig] 03/1/2015 21:24

If the wine is good and the cheese tasty - send an invite!

[joestalin] 03/1/2015 14:01

Did you dream that, Neddo?

[neddo] 03/1/2015 11:03

most have been eating cheese all year, makes you dream i believe

[madchick] 03/1/2015 07:35

I hate cheese (it's mouldy butter, as far as I'm concerned).

We used to always have quality street with a box of maltesers for me since they (maltesers) are my favorite. The maltesers boxes are great. I love the sound of them all rolling around. Reminds me a bit of bagatelle.

How can ANYONE not like fererro rocher???? Boggle, you need your head examined!!

Congratulations woollybanana; I put on 3 kg over the festivities, but since I lost 12 kg last year, I'm still feeling pleased with myself :-)

[festario] 03/1/2015 00:16

Actually SuperG, the strawberry creams and orange creams are the FIRST to go in our house, yummy soft centres. Quickly followed by the soft caramels etc..

What always gets left behind, (in both Roses and Q Street) are those dental destroyers, the HARD toffees.

[woolybanana] 03/1/2015 00:00

Well my hearties, I managed to give up booze over Xmas!!!!!!! And have lost just under a stone over December. And the most difficult thing to keep away from was the French cheesesssssss.
A health based decision. When I have dropped 25kg then I shall celebrate with the biggest cheese and wine party you have seen in years.

IOF will get there, with a few ups and downs. Let's get the blurdy water busiess pout of the way and a few minis in place. Then we shall see.

[serratia] 02/1/2015 23:46

superg,

Agree on the calories, I'll reduce them when xmas goods are used up. A descent cheese costs 30 shares/kg.