Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 19/11/2014 09:26

Stevo thanks for that post it's nice to read the basic history, I cancelled my subscription on ADVFN and stated why. They tried some cut price offers but when you stick to principles, it's not about price.

Don't forget the toaster. When the FCA were about to go through his underwear drawer a mysterious fire took hold destroying it. Rumour is it was a toaster that set the curtains alight. That description as a reason for a fire, is about as ludicrous as it gets.

[superg1] 19/11/2014 08:45

cyber Just my opinion.

There are a host of shares looking under-valued however those shares could continue to sit there or go lower.

The current issue is funds really not interested in small caps so there will be no strong buying on most on that front.

It will be a simple case of retail buyer interest in a company where shares are tight. So a case of looking for those small caps with the relevant trend.

The trouble is with retail investors the volumes can disappear overnight after the initial hype.

I looked at a big list 3/4 years back and chose a few to follow. The rest of the list which had a big hype following and 10 bag claims are between 5 to 15 times lower than the price when I looked at them.

Think of RHPS share tips like Corac and San Leon and see where they are now since they were tipped by RHPS.

So it's a bit of a lottery on fundamentals, a trend, sentiment and tight supply regardless of the business, may be the route.

[superg1] 19/11/2014 08:21

I'm not particularly interested in Lithium plays other than watching RB fail but for those that may have an interest. Here is the Toyota Hydrogen car news.

[superg1] 19/11/2014 08:10

Ors

I note they say EBITA improved due to cost savings. Some of that will be down to the closure of the higher cost El Toco mine and the Iris plant.

They got rid of 700 staff, but the full figure on contracted partners takes that to over 3000.

So any iodine shortage and they simply don't have the capacity to do anything about it. But then any severe shortage may be down to them anyway due to their at risk water rights for around 5000 to 6000mt mt of production in the Tamarugal area.

Seawater will be the norm for all in the near future with higher costs.

[superg1] 19/11/2014 07:56

Stevo

There is a positive to the low prices. As we know much of it has been caused by crooked and desperate actions.

When troubles hit in 2011 the price went up to a spot price of $100 per kg. Contract prices were $65 per kg plus.

Now we see prices in the mid 30's and there simply isn't the capacity for it to drop any material amount on the downside, but a big open space on the upside for a higher price if any shortage appears.

On the supply side there are not any obvious options to fill any gap that appears, but there are a host of reasons why there may be a supply shortage in the next year.

The circumstances for any shortage are different too as SQM were sitting on a decent inventory back in 2011. They sold quite a bit more than they produced. They don't have that capacity anymore.

The Peso and Yen are both on historic, or near historic weak points v the dollar.
Much of their fixed costs therefore reduce as they are getting more yen and pesos for the dollar.

However those circs too have little room on the weak side. EG the Chile peso has devalued by 25% against the dollar over the last year or so.

2015 should see growth of the iodine business, an eventual iodine shortage and higher prices. A water depot with revenue or potential buy out. The helium side may have moved on.

All the relevant circumstances are virtually at the bottom of their curve.

For me it terms for the actual business potential there is very little to be concerned about with a lot to be excited about. For many other shares I just can't work out where they are likely to be next year, some are in businesses where their demand is so finite they could fall off a cliff. Many are chasing last year's in demand xmas present.

On that front see trouble for lithium start ups in play now. I note Toyota have just announced launching a hydrogen car as in news out today.

IOF could sit tight on io1 to 6 if need be, and bump along, but they specifically said growth plans in the rns.

[che7win] 19/11/2014 07:13

Risky one, but look at TPL which has just ousted its board through active shareholder action.

Waiting on a deal which will give them $75m to expand further, costs far too high which new board should address.

New gas deal expected q1 2015.

[orslega] 19/11/2014 07:05

SQM struggling

hxxp://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sqm-reports-earnings-for-the-third-quarter-2014-283118731.html

[cyberbub] 18/11/2014 23:24

Has anyone got any other tips for small caps that you believe are about to jump by 50-100% ??

I will DMOR!

:-)

[hurricane.] 18/11/2014 18:11

hxxp://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Fracking-and-Water-A-New-Way-To-Profit-from-the-Industrys-Biggest-Problem.html

[cyberbub] 18/11/2014 16:55

Looks like a big tick down, but is actually just an AT trade I assume. The bid-offer spread has stayed the same all day.

[stevo2011] 18/11/2014 16:53

The thing is you have been saying this for over a year and is becoming tiresome, you backtrack on things you have previously said and have more names on here than I don't know what and no one takes you seriously , no point in looking back , everyone is aware of the current circumstances, markets change, as do commodity prices and the supply demand ratio is due a massive correction once competitors inventories have been dumped and depleted and as for the water that's another model to be evaluated and implemented

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 18/11/2014 16:37

This should have been making £5m in 2013 and £10m this. I said this at the time and was slammed for being bearish. How things change... 9 ticks for stating the bleeding obvious.

This will do well to make £2.5m in 2015 and £5m in 2016.

Arguably fairly priced on a 2 yr view but given the disappointments I'd still rate this as too expensive atm.

[superg1] 18/11/2014 15:27

HG

That's why I like IOF as it actually has a viable business to deliver with growing revenue, and in a sector where the actual commodity is very scarce but also growing in demand.

No AIM company I have ever watched has delivered on anything they say within the time frame or budget identified.

But then most of them have nothing at all, a idea good on paper in many cases, but destined for doom with no revenue.

A small minority will break free of the AIM pit, and this particular one looks capable of that.

The iodine world is currently being frustrated by a bunch of crooks (Cosayach) and the desperate RB energy.

As things stand it is only a temporary upset in the iodine world which may drag on for some months, but things will even out.

[mister market] 18/11/2014 14:55

Highly geared - How do you know what I am thinking?

[tim3416] 18/11/2014 14:31

Thanks SG. Not an easy process that's for sure! Fingers crossed :-)

[highly geared] 18/11/2014 14:24

As someone who bought in around a year ago at c. 150p my investment is well under water (no pun intended).

IOF has followed a familiar pattern of AIM companies; PI's (me included) buying into a blue sky story with well meaning posters providing the research/information. Then , as is typical, real life/business gets in the way and the company repeatedly fails to deliver on sky high expectation and their own hype + real world variables and unknowns come from centre and left field.

The share price collapses and we all become "long term" holders.

More importantly, the story for share holders and the company , in terms of what the market demands, fundamentally changes to one of proving the credibility and investment reason of the company by delivering real profits/EPS and servicing debt.

So at a market cap of c £50 million IOF needs to prove it can operate consistently as a profitable business. Assuming a sensible PE of 10 , you could argue it needs to deliver £5 million profit in 2015 to justify the current share price Taking this forward , £10 million for 2016 and the share price moves up to 80p and so on...

The water business could be a big bonus but too many slips in the past year means Mr Market will ascribe little if any value to it at this time.

It's now all about delivery; then I suppose it always was.

[superg1] 18/11/2014 13:55

Tim

Persons under these circs can object. But then it can't because it's blocking a view or not in keeping :-). The objection points are only those listed in post 26898. It rather makes the 'property' and 'interest' qualifier obsolete.

'A person has standing if his or her property, water rights, or interests would be adversely affected by the proposed appropriation. Explain your interest and how it
would be adversely affected.'

This is where is all a bit back to front as all the legal side of things is sorted pre application (land lease/purchase rights of way, LOIs), and in this case also in the hearing.

[tim3416] 18/11/2014 13:14

From what I understand you can only object if you are an existing rights holder, so not just any Joe Public and also how it will affect your permit. That's in addition to challenging the points listed by SG which we know have already been challenged at a hearing.

[superg1] 18/11/2014 12:54

Pleco

It probably won't convert into an rns for at least a week post the 1st December. So you will have some extra time there in terms of the market update v keeping an eye on the application.

[superg1] 18/11/2014 12:36

Naphar

Good point. Plain old objections with no evidence will be binned. Only objections with a good deal of evidence to support the actual point listed would deemed as valid.

On that front it has to be one of these, and the more I look at them the more I fail to see how anyone can show evidence to challenge it.

1. Physical Availability – Provide facts showing why water cannot be considered physically available.
2. Legal Availability – Provide facts showing why the water cannot be considered legally available.
3. Adverse Effect – Provide facts showing how this proposed use will adversely affect your water right.
4. Diversion Works – Provide facts showing why the construction of the project may not be adequate.
5. Beneficial Use – Provide facts showing why the use (purpose) or flow rate and volume may not be considered beneficial.

1 to 3 were already agreed by the bureau, and are virtually impossible to contest as it's the Missouri. The points the bureau raised (4 and 5) were over-turned in the hearing.

It doesn't stop Joe public objecting, but they won't get anywhere. Those looking will know it has already gone to a hearing, with the result available for them to view in full.

[pleco] 18/11/2014 12:34

Thanks everyone. My funds may just be available in time!

[naphar] 18/11/2014 12:15

I would not expect news that quick though, they have to assess any objections received.

[cyberbub] 18/11/2014 12:13

Touch wood.

[captain_kurt] 18/11/2014 12:10

9 working days left and no objections so far

[battery] 18/11/2014 12:07

Pleco,By 1st Dec. So either that Monday or Friday 28th Nov.