Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[freshvoice] 15/11/2014 20:51

Mag which
I think that is over optimistic but could be closer than many realise.

[magwich] 15/11/2014 20:46

Is there any chance at all if everything goes well IOF could get close to 400mt for year end.Thx GLA

[superg1] 15/11/2014 19:47

In 2013 Sirocco/RB sold 476mt.

Up to Sept this year they have sold 1018 mt as as you point out by cutting prices, we all know they needed the cash.

They forecast this year they should do around 1200mt, but they had about 800mt in the inventory which makes 2000mt this year.

The inventory will go and their capacity to supply, if they kept going, would drop by 800mt. With such debt and the failed lithium side, the chances of survival are very slim.

They are currently operating under the court on a $13 mill loan facility but with over $200 mill of debt

Cosayach had done a similar things up until May 13 went illegal wells were closed, I imagine they will still have inventory following on from that.

SQM however in response to the unsustainable supply bulge closed a mine and a plant. Their costs at those sites are too high to bring them back on line but they can't anyway as they laid off 700 staff.

Q4 should be the quiet period but is also a time when the end users start sorting the contracts for the following year. One thing is for certain RB and Cosayach are not viable suppliers for long term supply agreements.

If whoever left SQM try to go back to SQM, then they will find SQM don't have the capacity to supply them. I bet SQM will enjoy that day.

It all points to a production shortage in 2015

[gadolinium] 15/11/2014 18:52

Super,
The average Zauba price for 99.5% iodine in October was 32.85 $/kg, but if you strip out the three October shipments of 22.6MT delivered at 31 $/kg then the average price for the other deliveries in October rises to 35.12 $/kg.
So whoever delivered these repeat 22.6MT shipments was undercutting the rest of the market by 4.12 $/kg (35.12-31).

Using similar calculations I calculate the discount offered by the repeat 22.6MT shipper over the last four months as Sept (2.4 $/kg), August (4.35 $/kg) and July (5.14 $/kg).

[jontyone] 15/11/2014 12:03

a few Stateside fracking related stocks made good gains on Friday, mainly down to Halliburton going hostile on Baker Hughes.

[rogerbridge] 15/11/2014 11:10

The picture for IOF is looking better all the time, that confirmation about RB Energy is very encouraging for IOF holders. The iodine price should improve in 2015.
I had to collect a French guy from the airport early yesterday and whilst in a meeting I was trying to look at the IOF share price. I thought that when the meeting had finished I would purchase a few as it seemed silly not to do so, however there was lunch and then two more meetings, so I thought, I will leave it until Monday. I kicked myself when I arrived home last evening and looked at the share price.
Even so, the price is in bargain territory for any long term holder wishing to top up. Well done to all those who took the opportunity to add.

[superg1] 15/11/2014 11:08

Yes sure enough RB energy misled the market.

They mentioned shipping battery grade lithium and seeing increased production of 40 to 50mt per week and on the climb. Within a week that had failed completely but they didn't tell anyone until now.

They then put out a technical report during the complete failure saying there were no fatal flaws.

When they were in talks for funding, systems had failed, and production ceased in the weeks before funding talks and during them.

So they were never going to get funding under those circs.

Now the operations are suspended, debt and payments due are significantly beyond their means. That's why they went for court protection. So they have nothing but evidence of failure and now suspended operations. In any climate they would struggle to get backers, in the current one they have no chance.

Especially since Enirgi have just announced plans for 50,000 mt per year at half the opex of hard rock miners.

The court protection lasts until 30th April 2015. It should be pre that date when the final outcome is known. So post Q1 next year it seems highly likely that there will be no RB iodine mine in Chile.

[superg1] 15/11/2014 10:01

Gad this will be of interest to you as it tends to confirm who is selling cheap iodine to India.

The 21.6 mt supplier seems to be RB energy (as suspected). As mentioned previously in the first week of October there was an usual shipment of 3 x the 21.6mt at a price of around $31 per kg. This happened in the days just before the share was suspended and court protection from creditors achieved.

In Q3 this year they mention selling at an average of $32 per kg. Over the whole year so far they mention selling 1012mt at an average of $34 per kg. Prices were way above that earlier in the year, so clearly they have been slashing prices to get sales as, they were, and are, desperate for cash.

They state they will continue to deplete their inventory which we fully expected anyway. Most iodine sales are in fixed contracts, what we see on India imports is the loose sales on the spot market.

RB can't supply the world and it's only a matter of time before their inventory runs dry.

Q2 v Q4 they are reporting a forecast near 20% increase in opex, that will continue to climb into next year.

The key point of course is that it's highly likely the business will be wound up in 2015, the court protection just seems to be delaying the inevitable.

Losses reported of $90 million.

On the first read of their actual lithium production I suspect they potentially misled the market in previous news so I'm going to have a dig into that.

[superg1] 15/11/2014 09:30

The full story requires subscription but the header says it all

Chile bets on desalination to supply water to thirsty cities
By Business News Americas staff reporter - Friday, November 14, 2014

All of Chile's northern regions are facing water deficits, with demand exceeding supply by up to 20 times, in particular because of huge mining operations and one of the driest climates in the world.

In another report Chile water issues also get a mention under this header

'UK select committee highlights importance of reliable water supply to mining industry'

Water is a significant concern for Chilean miners, given that the Atacama Desert, in which many of the country’s lithium, iodine and other mines operate, is the driest place on earth. Water must therefore be supplied by pipe from the sea, following purification, and this involves pumping it up to heights often over 2,000 metres above sea level.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 15/11/2014 09:09

Yes, being a bear of this has been remarkably difficult of late.

[henry9th1] 15/11/2014 07:13

That certainly seemed to scare the bears, but I would assume that they knew it was coming hence being very busy talking it down on Thursday. We do need to remember that the mm's also go for the bears stop losses and will spike it up to take them out, entice them back and do it again.

After all, they do have the same problems as the bulls in that respect and it is difficult to make a short term profit. Kind regards William

[rogerbridge] 14/11/2014 21:33

Nice end to the week.

[kattatogaru] 14/11/2014 20:50

Mr Big if you're bored you should look at Hydrodec HYR - fantastic management team, recovery about to take off, awaiting some major announcements by year end and expansion due to start production in Q1 2015...

[freddievas] 14/11/2014 16:31

so good they named them twice

[angel of the north] 14/11/2014 16:31

Seems a lot of excitement today - yet the share price is still below what it was at the start of the week?

[freddievas] 14/11/2014 16:31

Gibraltarian.

[freddievas] 14/11/2014 16:30

Gibraltarian.

[monkeymagic3] 14/11/2014 16:28

mister big 14 Nov'14 - 15:37 - 26764 of 26772 0 0

Monkey -
Just bored at home for a change with nothing to do !
Thankfully the opposable thumb comments have ceased and nothing from heart well , ACT or netley. Everyone is officially bored .



Indeed, I believe all the available opposable thumbs have been seconded to the Gibraltan regulators. They have lots on apparently.

[che7win] 14/11/2014 16:16

Heartwell,
You've 15 minutes to close your short.

[uppompeii] 14/11/2014 16:05

fresh - I agree with the process you describe but wouldn't call it manipulation, it's just making a market, but I guess its semantics we are discussing as the end result is the same. This volatility on low volumes does no one any favours though.

[mister big] 14/11/2014 16:04

Bubble territory is correct - on mm they often mark low on buy order to get people to sell . The whole is rigged and corrupt !
On that note I'm off to school bonfire night !!!