Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 24/10/2014 12:04

Simmy yes have a look at the Montana DNRC website, haven't got the link on my mobile but someone can no doubt post it up.

[simmy1699] 24/10/2014 11:35

Is there any way to find out if objections have been made to the permit? Apart from harassing Maureen at the permit office

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 24/10/2014 10:55

Yes I know that che, doesn't mean it's right though. Certainly gives off the wrong vibe imho. You do want to attract serious investors?

What's your point about the share price below Banksy's convertibles?

[che7win] 24/10/2014 10:50

ACT,
this is not a debate about monthly updates, it is about the withdrawal of them prematurely.
The monthly updates were introduced to be transparent and to reassure the market that the company was progressing. They were close to working :-)

They have been withdrawn just as the production increase should be jumping.

I would rather have volatility and a higher price any day with the monthly updates.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 24/10/2014 10:27

Yes that's clearly a US tactic woolybanana, well documented.

You're wrong che, a normal company doesn't need monthly updates, quarterly is quite sufficient. If you want to be taken seriously you must behave properly, and not be seen to be playing for the traders.

[woolybanana] 24/10/2014 10:22

Reference the oil price, I wonder if there is not a link with the sanctions against Russia as a lower price puts their economy under greater pressure and puts Putin under greater pressure from the oligarcs who support him and from the general population as the economy deteriorates.

[che7win] 24/10/2014 10:20

I think the market understands IOF.

It doesn't understand why the company pulled monthly updates before it was sufficiently assured that we are going to meet the new, lower forecasts for this year.

If we were on monthly updates, the market would be sizing up a possible jump in production next month and reflecting that. Instead, we are in the dark, despite reassurances from IOF. The market needs to see the evidence IMHO.

I said it at the time, it was a bad move, the share price is reflecting it.
Mr Market has chosen to ignore the water developments for now.

If we fall much lower, we'll be below Mr Big's convertible, now that's a very interesting situation.

[superg1] 24/10/2014 08:32

Jam

On your where to invest point. It has become clear to me over the last few years the market is neither rational or logical. All Mr market does is panic, because it knows everyone else will panic.

The big talking point for a few weeks had been oil prices and OMG the sky is falling in.

So taking the US oil shale boom. Since it started over 5 years ago the technology has made big gains, so costs and efficiencies have greatly improved. Technique changes mean that production rates have improved too. So costs are lower and production rates higher.

So go back the 5 years or so ago around when the frack revolution started and you will note oil prices were around $50 to $80 pb.

It did a bigger drop range move in mid 2012 but I don't recall the same panic then.

The market won't buy oil stocks but clearly the panic doesn't match the facts.

Billions were being spent to exploit US shale at prices much lower than this, but prices are higher, costs are lower and production levels for any given well are higher than the 'old' techniques.

EG just in recent months oil companies in the Bakken are talking about 30% to 40% production increases by using high water volume fracking.

So there are some cheap oil stocks around but they unlikely to see big near term rises due to sentiment rather than facts.

It seems to be the same across the market, just chase trends rather than what you understand about a share for short term moves. For a long term investment I recommend thorough research. As when all around you start running around like headless chickens, you will understand the risks and potential and simply ignore the noise.

Of course you could trade, but then the investment advice tells me the vast majority of traders fail badly, so I don't even bother trying.

How long on this thread have we talked about trouble for Chile re water and power. A warning about any investments in Chile.

This week, finally the financial institutions have woken up to the water issue and they will now start to look more deeply. Their first thought is a surge in copper prices next year, if the water issue impacts new mines and expansion in Chile, which seems highly likely.


In the case of IOF the market is completely clueless re the various aspects. Some think it's a mining company, some think gas, others think oil prices affect it. As for iodine they have never seen an investment like it as nothing like it exists in Europe.

Mr B gets it is probably going to make a fortune, and chuckle at any that didn't listen.


Take helium (ignoring that IOF may have some). It's never been in existence in the finance world as the US federal reserve kept the helium market happy for decades. Now that is coming to and end and they stopped the cheap sales. suddenly the helium industry itself got a nasty shock when they went to bid at the most recent helium auction.

I hear the US is starting to wake up re the value of helium and in the next few years there will be suddenly a lot of talk about helium exploration not 'oh we seem to have a helium shortage'.

The US has to sort that out, if they don't, being one of the biggest end users, they will be importing it from the Middle East and Russia doh!

[ansana] 23/10/2014 16:51

hxxp://www.ilovechile.cl/2014/10/22/atacamas-water-crisis/122653

[cyberbub] 23/10/2014 16:14

Water is important for mining... but you can't drink copper or iodine...

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 23/10/2014 15:50

Banksy, this Quadrise Energy? Loads of girls are crying... only said hello

[superg1] 23/10/2014 15:46

Meb

From news last week which helps spell out the accelerating problem. The last paragraph covers my previous post.

Chile expanded water scarcity relief efforts to six more municipalities as the country faces a severe drought, the public works ministry (MOP) said.

MOP head Alberto Undurraga declared a water shortage in the towns of Petorca, La Ligua, Cabildo, Zapallar, Papudo and Putaendo, all in central Valparaíso.

The measures will speed up delivery of drinking water to residents and farmers, and authorize the national water office to greenlight well drilling, even if the rights to use the wells have not been allocated.

The declaration of water shortage will be valid for six months, but may be extended.

A water shortage has also been declared in municipalities in southern Maule (VII) and northern Coquimbo (IV) regions, where reservoirs are currently 66% below normal levels.

Last week, President Michelle Bachelet proposed amendments to the nation's water code in order to make human consumption and sanitation a priority. The proposed reform would make it possible to limit water rights temporarily under special circumstances, such as a drought.
region (V).

[superg1] 23/10/2014 14:35

Meb

The aquifers are depleting with some cities struggling for drinking water so yes.

That is the point of the laws to protect such uses.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 23/10/2014 14:31

I quite like you mate, hic!

[meb123] 23/10/2014 14:26

SG ,

If the impending laws are as dire as it seems , and it impacts mining which is a significant part of the economy, presumably the government is shooting itself in the foot. They must know this surely . So I am wondering , will they actually go through with the changes eventually ?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 23/10/2014 13:20

Yeah, but you took this from 250 to 20 Graham.

[superg1] 23/10/2014 13:16

Someone has kindly passed me the details of comments about Chile and water.

In short 'they' now recognise that there may be a significant impact on copper mines in Chile. A recognition that new mines/expansion are unlikely to be approved unless it is all directly linked to desalination/seawater supply.

Notes about BHP and Rio Tinto have spent $3 billion on seawater and desalination facilities, so it gives some idea of the major expense involved.

Even a mention of the 150 litres per second rule that may come into force in the future.

The tax rises noted but no mention of the big minimum wage rises over the 3 year period that were are currently in.

They consider the potential problems may well turn the copper market into a production deficit situation.

Obviously in Chile copper is the dominant commodity, but for those that know Chile well, the impact will affect other sectors and already has. SQM announced the impact of the tax increases and put some numbers to it recently.

Nice to see some top analysts and big names in the finance sector are finally realising how the Chile drought, pending water law changes, and government plans, will impact mining in Chile.

[spike_1] 23/10/2014 11:46

Indeed, very well justified!

[engelo] 23/10/2014 10:13

Alpha if so,well justified :-)

[alphacharlie] 23/10/2014 09:56

sg - Do I detect a spot of 'Told you so, Mr City Analyst' with some added sarcasm thrown in?

[superg1] 23/10/2014 07:46

Re Oklahoma well costs.

Magnolia released news today they have a minor interest in wells drilled by Devon energy.

'This improves the already attractive economics of drilling to the
Woodford and Mississippi Lime, both of which have low breakeven oil prices
compared with other US onshore formations.'

The Woodford and Mississippi lime is generally where the iodine comes from. Historically the Woodford was the main interest.

[bryproj] 22/10/2014 23:02

Extract from money week: the international energy agency reckons that only 4% of shale production has a breakeven price of more than 80 dollars. In some us oil fields prices could fall much further before they become uneconomic. Seth Kleinman of Citigroup points out, for those frackers who have already invested in setting up rigs,and possibly hedging crude prices,the cost at which they would have to shut down production is much lower than $80 a barrel - Kleinman reckons its more like $37-45 a barrel. On top of that the breakeven price is continually falling as technology refinements improve economics. Even at $75 and below US oil production would almost certainly grow in 2015 and 2016

[simmy1699] 22/10/2014 22:12

Just pasting an interesting comment from another bb re the progress of miners and oil explorers. "I think this could also apply to IOF in the way the share price went up to 235p as they installed extraction plants and proved the process. The speculators left the share price dropped and know we are in the Orphan period. I think we are about to enter the upswing of the proof of production. http://www.worldofwallstreet.us/2011/04/brent-cooks-life-cycle-of-a-junior-mining-explorer.html"

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 22/10/2014 19:11

To be fair, I think jamonit was seeking advice on how to make above average returns over a 6 month period. He wasn't asking for a lecture on the perils of gambling.

So the responses were to jamonit only, not general advice.