Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[freshvoicem] 01/10/2014 13:13

Wonder who is selling out when this is the best condition we have been in for years.

[masurenguy] 01/10/2014 13:10

LOL - I see that "Mr Big", who appears to have a little fan base here, is seeking to draw some attention away from Cameron today by publicly defecting from the Tories to UKIP. Doesn't look as though the Tories are too bothered about it either !

"William Hague, the leader of the House, today described Mr Banks as “someone we haven’t heard of” whose change of allegiance would have little impact."

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 01/10/2014 13:00

Hmmm, I would have expected a better s/t reaction tbh, disappointing. I did expect enthusiasm to peter out over the coming months, not within 24 hours!

What's wrong with you guys?

[che7win] 01/10/2014 11:39

Latest indmin article on IOF::

The high-tech iodine producer has reported increased revenues and iodine production, despite lower iodine prices and delays to its construction schedule, and believes that it is now on the path to growth.

UK-listed iodine producer Iofina Plc has said it is considering the next steps for expanding iodine output from oilfield drilling brines in the US, which will include a number of mobile production facilities. The company, which currently has six stationary iodine plants based on its proprietary Wellhead Extraction Technology (WET)...

[woolybanana] 01/10/2014 11:35

ref 25017: Surely, superg1, a major problem has been achieving production consistency often caused by downtimes in plants. With more plants, even working the same brine, the chances of a single downtime damaging production is much reduced.

[superg1] 01/10/2014 11:20

I have to admit that line is bugging me and they said it twice so probably not a typo.

The world leader in iodine and derivatives.

Going on performance and the overall obvious consolidation point and being cautious it seems a very bold line to add in.

They have said a leader and made claims in the past but why add it into this news, there was no need and they are strong claims.

So once more Jeff smiling about leases gained plus now they quote 82,000 acres has me wondering what they have found, with these high ppm and hyper wells.

To become world leader from this starting point is a long way off, but I believe the economics of where they are does leave the door open for someone to be dominant in the iodine sector.

The rate that can be achieved is only held back by the lack of cash or lack of a partner with the cash.

If the opex is to be near 20 or below, and they have the backing, they don't need to worry too much about what Chile are doing.

If they'd had Sirocco's $64 mill bank balance (now down the drain) then the extent to which they could expand would be frightening to others in the industry.

We can see that, I'm sure others in the industry can too. All that holds IOF back is cash, or a backer.

[superg1] 01/10/2014 11:01

wooly

The chem div use is about 300 to 400 mt historically.

The plants max range should be around 700mt plus as forecast.

As stated in news the old team out some plants on lower ppm, when higher ppm is available.

I'm not sure what number you think is right to keep the chem div going, but it's not the number of plants that are needed, just the right plants/pods on the right site.

EG io2 was the first Oklahoma plant and it's a lucrative site in terms of ppm x bpd. More of those sites exists for further plants/pods I understand. Less will be more.

I don't think most folk realise just how many wells 82,000 acres of leases cover. Those won't be random block leases, but leases gained on the back of 1000's of samples. It's a lot of brine and is probably the backbone of why they say they intend to become 'the world leader' in the sector.

I'm sure anyone exploiting IOF tech and leases in OK could do that, so I'm intrigued why they put that in the rns, and listed the lease acreage for the first time.

EG if a big backer arrived interested in the sector, they are in a position to rapidly expand. There are some very big companies that have fingers in pies in the sector, from production to the end products.

[woolybanana] 01/10/2014 10:47

Ah yes, he holds 3.2%

[superg1] 01/10/2014 10:30

Beer

He bought around 4 mill shares I believe. Over 3% of the company.

[woolybanana] 01/10/2014 10:29

ref 25011: thanks for the info. very grateful. Wish I had an insurance company to sell!
My main worry about Iofina is that they don't have enough plants whether big or small to deal with the irregularities in production caused by downtimes of any single plant. My guess is that they need the equivalent of another four or five plants, or several more little ones.

[heartwell] 01/10/2014 10:27

Arron Banks diamond mine only containing iron ore. Just ask GG

The downward trend continues. Thank you for filling my pockets.

[superg1] 01/10/2014 10:23

The latest news on Chile water circs. It rather helps the government with their plan to get the water rights reforms through. This year was supposed to be El Nino too when Chile gets extra rain.



Chile's water resources will grow scarcer in 2014-15, following below average rain and snowfall in central and northern regions.

"The past five years have been one of the driest periods in the last 100 years," water department director Carlos Estévez said.

"The water situation is normal in the south, but quite serious in northern and central Chile," public works undersecretary Sergio Galilea said.

The country's northern and central regions, spanning between Atacama (III) and O'Higgins (VI), have experienced a 50% rainfall deficit and an 80% snowfall deficit for the season. Rainfall is a major source of water supply into the area's rivers and reservoirs, apart from snow and glacier melt.

El Yeso, a major source of drinking water for Santiago's metropolitan area, saw water reserves decline 31% in August compared to the same year-ago month, and is currently at 58% of its capacity.

Galilea said the reservoir contains enough water to meet residential demand.

In Atacama and Coquimbo regions (IV), however, the situation is more critical, as water resources are insufficient to cover a growing demand.

Galilea also said the government is considering a range of measures, including drilling deeper wells and redistributing water, to maintain water irrigation needs for farmers.

President Michelle Bachelet is about to send to congress a bill that would limit water rights and extend government authority to regulate the sector, claiming the current system has led to misuse and mismanagement of water resources.

[beercapafn] 01/10/2014 10:13

woolybanana...A big investor on IOF, bought about 500k shares at sub 0.50, then was helpful in a sizable loan to the company a few months ago.

Mines diamonds, sold an insurance co.

Arron Banks if you Google him.

[superg1] 01/10/2014 09:54

Up

I fully agree but I know the right guys are back.

Already it seems 1.5 to 2 mill will be saved on admin costs in H2. Gross margins are up from 20% to 30%. That's after 6 months of a complete refurb of the mess that was made.

There is still work to do to get the current plants in a position they should have been in the first place, but the message is clearly about sorting that out, then moving on.

The moment they add higher ppm plants or pods the opex per kg drops and that's what they will do when they think the timing is right. Any included location with higher ppm and better yields than their worst plants means a drop in opex.
The best locations are yet to come, rather than the working the other way.

So many AIM companies just throw $10's of millions down the drain, reload and then do it all over again.

The clear message is consolidate short term then move on. It's clear the chemical division is seeing interest in it's products beyond it is current ability to supply customers.

I'm sure they could gain supply agreements, but in the first instance there is more to be made by pushing it through the chem div.

A month or 2 more and the remaining plants should have their tweaks done, and then we rely on brine flows, rates of flow that will be increasing dramatically in the Woods county area, it's the drilling hotspot of Oklahoma.

Late H2 is the typical slow down time for the iodine industry, with the spring being the flurry of activity, however this time they have already surpassed 2013 revenue.

India is interesting as they seem to be importing iodine at a rate well beyond their normal levels. At the end of 2013 and start of 2104 it was virtually nothing, but since about July it's taken off and is continuing through Sept (over 200mt).

That's a typical market that Sirocco sold into, and if they told the truth the India die down on imports in H2 last year was the reason they stopped supplying iodine.

The fact iodine is so much cheaper could be the sole reason why India has decided it's now a viable product for the business they wish to use it in.
In the price hike some sectors died for iodine as there are alternatives. However iodine based products in many cases is the A grade product, so if the price is right they return.

My current hope is that a desperate RB is selling down it's inventory as fast as possible to meet their cash needs. Last count was 630mt in the inventory as of 30th June. India has imported a relatively significant amount of cheap iodine since that date.

[woolybanana] 01/10/2014 09:27

ref 25001 and 2 : So who is Mr Big then?

[uppompeii] 01/10/2014 08:34

But rogerbridge it has to be based on current experience and short term prospects as they have singularly failed to impress in the past. Anyone aside those invested would look at the share price and past news and think...what the hell, this is risky!

[1madmarky] 01/10/2014 08:32

Yeah, iof (if you cut the administration expenses down to size) are able to make money even with plants in the wrong places on reduced brine flows and subject to ongoing fracking disruption.
That shows the potential of the business. Get the plants in the right places once they have been fully fracked (at least so we can run at capacity) and we are off again.
GLA

[rogerbridge] 01/10/2014 08:24

I agree with the comments from Rockstar, good times ahead. I do not think the market has got it's head around the ongoing problems of increased costs and financing for our competitors that SG has been trumpeting for several months.
Derampers and some analysts have focused on short term problems at IOF that can be and are being resolved.
Their error is not to have vision about where the market is heading and the increased production and financing costs of our competitors.
Once again we see decisions being made based on the short term prospects of IOF.
It was (in the past) unfortunate that the sites for IO3,4,5 &6 were not the best, but that lesson has been learned and was down to previous management. It would have been nice to have re-sited a couple of installations, but this would be costly and I think we agree that pods are the way forward.

It has been a very hard and stressful 12 months or so, but looking at the bigger picture and with the research done by many here I have not sold a single share and took the opportunity of yesterday's early morning dip to add. Unfortunately, I was not as early as some but very happy with my purchase.

[che7win] 01/10/2014 08:19

Superg,
Plant 6 is a good plant just not an extraordinary one like 2, plant 5 seems to be another good site too, not far off 6 when the fracking subsides?

[superg1] 01/10/2014 08:02

Yes he is popular this morning, on the BBC TV news too.

Back to IOF, I've been wondering about that rather strong statement about intending to be THE leading iodine company rather than 'one of'.

I think it's partly to do with a statement to Chile producers. IOF know they are seeing tough times with costs to rise further, and they know it costs 100's of millions to bring on new areas in Chile.

They did add for the first time the size of the lease area in the core iodine region. That probably made the eyes water of the Japanese companies in the area.

It's more than a shame that CF and co didn't target the high ppm sites with io3 to 6. A matter that is commented on in the rns, 'chasing plants at any cost'.

If they had been more selective opex would be below $20 now imo, by some way potentially.

There is talk appearing of the odd site available of good ppm for the next phase, io2 like and better. That's when opex will really start to fall as they target those sites.

Inventories keep the price down, and I'll stick with my 2015 turn on the price as the inventories run dry and apparent current production rates won't meet demand. India still seems active on the imports, once the RB inventory expires I anticipate that may steady the price up.

There seems to be an apparent 'deadline' on financing for RB as of yesterday so in the next few days we may hear how things have gone.

[sandbag] 01/10/2014 07:43

Heartwell - 29 Sep 2014 - 15:45 - 24879 of 25000 - 1Carry on and follow mister big to the poor house. I will be around to tell you "I told you so"Heartwell, Check out the BBC website this morning. Doesn't look like Mr B's going to the poor house!

[che7win] 01/10/2014 07:30

Ansana,
Exactly, the potential to utilise our unique technology and leases into value creation is turning to reality.

Cash flow positive is so close now, especially with Rockstar indication costs per kg produced fluctuating 30% below world prices.
If we are around $25kg for production costs now, what will we be when we get the plants running at peak efficiency? Below $20kg?

Market yet to realise the turnaround in fortunes here.