Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[woodpeckers] 26/9/2014 18:32

fresh, the comments re IOC were facts re how the sales had gone that month not predictions about what they hoped to achieve so I believe them.

[woodpeckers] 26/9/2014 17:39

I feel I am probably on my own here (apart from the buyer/s at the end), but I'm expecting the interims to surprise to the upside.

We already know the iodine production figures (which admittedly haven't been great), but what we don't know is the chemical division's figures.

Based on the April update which said they were 'ahead of expectations', the June update Which stated 'record sales' and July's 'near record sales again' I'm thinking that the bad news is already out there and we may at last have an rns which puts a bit of a smile on our faces.

[neddo] 26/9/2014 17:37

nutters is the only one here to get it right, ??

[woodpeckers] 26/9/2014 17:06

Well someone scooped up a few cheap shares at the end there!

[joestalin] 26/9/2014 16:53

I would like to see this below 40p around mid October when I get my Soco special dividend. If you invested in this share for jam today, then more fool you.

[noujay] 26/9/2014 16:20

Evidently. As for me I'm purely concerned with the flows of brine water. I'd suggest you ought to be too!

[roger melly] 26/9/2014 16:14

Noujay 26 Sep'14 - 15:04 - 24817 of 24822 1 1

I'm sure the results will contain enough opaque/negative news to push this below the 40p mark and prompt his return. You can't really blame him, it's hardly going like a dream is it!

such comments will only but increase the flow of bath water over your head

[cyberbub] 26/9/2014 16:11

As long as there is no unexpected bad news then I would think that clearly poor H1 results should be in the share price by now? Doesn't prevent opportunists trying to trigger stop losses of course!Good luck all.

[noujay] 26/9/2014 16:05

Holding a decent sized belt of these and not especially inclined to sell up and take a bath but thanks for your suggestion though!I would also like some improved performance with realistic targets set and achieved although also consider it within my rights to pass the odd comment regardless of whether it happens to be negative or positive...you know, being a shareholder on a bulletin board for shareholders and all that!!Roll on the interims...and let's hope today's dip is not prescient after all..

[roger melly] 26/9/2014 15:23

Dorset
the stock market always over compensates. Everyone knows H1 was not good, what we need is the company to be forthright and say it as it is. I believe the new CEO put out low production estimate for Sept because he knows he can beat it. Let's judge him by that in the first instance, I mean he's only just taken the reigns and his track record at IO Chemical is a good one if anyone knows the iodine business then this guy does. The market will look forward so any news on Mini's/Out take agreements will be positive. And bears could be trapped if any positive news on water comes. Then over-compensation will be to the upside.

[noujay] 26/9/2014 15:04

I'm sure the results will contain enough opaque/negative news to push this below the 40p mark and prompt his return. You can't really blame him, it's hardly going like a dream is it!

[freshvoice] 26/9/2014 14:44

Surprised with the drop we haven't had Nutters back yet.

[woodpeckers] 26/9/2014 07:49

It is relevant in that other iodine based chemical producers will have to pay more for their iodine which gives IOC an edge over them when it comes to pricing.

[monty panesar] 25/9/2014 20:03

All that concerns me is if they are producing enough iodine to satisfy demand from the chemical division. They need to produce in the range of 35-40t per month. With the sales from IOC it appears unlikely Iof will sell any raw iodine for the rest of the year regardless if there is a jump in production to over 50t per month.They have sold more iodine than they have produced by my calcs.Last year they sold $19m of product using 300t of raw iodine. The world iodine price is irrelevant to IOF at the moment.

[rogerbridge] 25/9/2014 19:22

One day it will arrive

[superg1] 25/9/2014 14:57

Bogg1e
Now you have that list go back to the rns comment (below) and then you will see why I think they is no reason why the permit won't be awarded in full or in part.

The Department of Natural Resources and Conservation (“DNRC”) determined that the requested amount of water is both physically and legally available and that there would be no adverse effect at the point of diversion due to the engineering and design consideration outlined in the engineering study.

That covers most of the points and it more or less leaves beneficial use. We know as released in news they have companies wanting to buy the water.

If you want to go to the legal declaration side form the sharp end, then get your pen out and decide what to tick off the list re the facts we already know as released

(a)(i) there is water physically available at the proposed point of diversion in the amount that the applicant seeks to appropriate; and

(ii) water can reasonably be considered legally available during the period in which the applicant seeks to appropriate, in the amount requested, based on the records of the department and other evidence provided to the department. Legal availability is determined using an analysis involving the following factors:
(A) identification of physical water availability;
(B) identification of existing legal demands on the source of supply throughout the area
of potential impact by the proposed use; and
(C) analysis of the evidence on physical water availability and the existing legal demands, including but not limited to a comparison of the physical water supply at the proposed point of diversion with the existing legal demands on the supply of water.


(b) the water rights of a prior appropriator under an existing water right, a certificate, a permit, or a state water reservation will not be adversely affected. In this subsection
(1)(b), adverse effect must be determined based on a consideration of an applicant's plan for the exercise of the permit that demonstrates that the applicant's use of the water will be controlled so the water right of a prior appropriator will be satisfied;

(c) the proposed means of diversion, construction, and operation of the appropriation works are adequate

(d) the proposed use of water is a beneficial use;

(e) the applicant has a possessory interest, or the written consent of the person with the possessory interest, in the property where the water is to be put to beneficial use[.]


It only really leaves d which is the beneficial use.

We are talking the Missouri here, not some well on a small aquifer. About 99% of rights are upstream of IOF so they aren't really impacting anyone in Montana.

Timeline unknown for a decision.

[bogg1e] 25/9/2014 13:54

panoramix, nice find and post, from page 22:

Surface Water
A person must apply for and receive a permit to appropriate water before
beginning to construct diversion works or diverting water from a surface water source. Those seeking a permit must plan ahead—the application process takes time to complete. The applicant for a permit must provide the following evidence:

- the physical availability of water at the point of diversion during the requested period of diversion;
- the legal demands on the source;
- a comparison of the physical water available and the existing legal demands;
- the effects of the proposed use on existing water rights;
- an analysis of the effects of existing water rights on the water supply within the source;
- the design and operation of the proposed system;
- a description of the proposed beneficial use;
- an explanation of how the requested flow rate and volume was determined and that the amounts are the amounts necessary for the use; and
- that the applicant has possessory interest in the place of use.

[captain_kurt] 25/9/2014 11:57

Water could take many months yet. It's all about present and future Iodine production. Hopefully Tom Becker is making progress with the current short term issues

[panoramix] 25/9/2014 11:51

how the permit system works
flowchart on page 29
page 39 if using PDF

[festario] 24/9/2014 10:44

There is no shortage of supply for him at under 50p though... if he REALLY wants them.
I don't feel quite so bad about the batch I gave him for 49.5p now!

[cyberbub] 24/9/2014 10:39

Yes I worked it out also at the time, and I don't think Mr Big hit the next percentage point... close though...

[superg1] 24/9/2014 09:25

He won't have hit the next percentage point so you won't get one.