Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 23/9/2014 12:10

Bobsworth,
thanks for your figures.

Production this year is forecast to be double last years, even when they underestimated the issues, both internal and external.


Looking at the raw iodine production and the cumulative average per month, it gives the underlying trend in progress this year:

Jan
15.6 (avg 15.6)

Feb
15.6 (avg 15.6)

Mar
15.6 (avg 15.6)

Apr
21.8 (avg 17.2)

May (false hope this month)
40.5 (avg 21.8)

Jun
30.6 (avg 23.31)

Jul
24.5 (avg 23.48)

Aug
23.6 (avg 23.5)

Sept
25-30 (avg 23.66 to 24.22)

Oct
37.3-44 (avg 25 to 26.2)

It shows the average over the year has been clearly trending upwards each and every month.
That is the key figure for me, the trend is upwards and will continue upwards.

October will provide a cleaner month, September we know had issues for the first half and even then, they are expecting 25-30MT.

Read supergs post earlier today, the order of the plants I have confirmed from the company and they are IO2, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1.

So plants 6 and 5 are decent plants, next to IO2, with plant IO5 disrupted by fracking more so than IO6, but in due time, it should
bloom into a decent plant(excuse pun :-)).

IO4 will take a leap with the new pump as well as 5 and 6 contributing better which should help our average over the months ahead.

As long as we produce over 23.5mt this month, our average continues upwards unbroken.

All else is noise on the iodine production side, the market continues to ignore the Chemical division and it's growth, maybe the results provide a better picture.

[freshvoice] 23/9/2014 10:38

Bobsworth
They better get the glitches/oil contamination/fracking disruption/weather/George's mods/electricity /gravity pump/
Sorted soon or start thinking of new excuses/reasons.

[wizard2020] 23/9/2014 09:48

Not sure you read my post correctly ACT. I repeated Mr B's post of the 18th Sept and merely questioned why it had not resulted in a RNS

[bobsworth] 23/9/2014 09:38

Summary of Production to date + revised target & what's left to do to hit yr end target!

Metric Tons
Q1 47
April 21.8
May 40.5
June 30.6
July 24.5
Aug 23.6
Sept 25 - 30 Latest target
Oct 37.3 - 44
Nov 37.3 - 44
Dec 37.4 - 44
Target 325 - 350 Revised target

[freshvoice] 23/9/2014 09:37

Superg

You go thro the plants one by one and for a number you say

'Sorted midmonth'

Why isn't the end of month run rate much better then?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 23/9/2014 09:37

Wizard2020,

I fear your timing is horrendously wrong. I do expect this to double, but sadly from a much much lower level. This has only just begun its latest bear phase, sub 45 might sound good... how does sub 10p sound?

The real horror will be revealed in the finals, so just a question of how astute the market is at discounting what's coming... not very atm.

[woodpeckers] 23/9/2014 09:29

To expect new technology to perform at optimum levels so soon is unrealistic in my view. If it was easy everyone would be doing it. As it is we have some of the most experienced men in the iodine industry at the helm. Let's let them get on with the job.

[magpie99] 23/9/2014 08:36

Could leaves on the line be next?

[wizard2020] 23/9/2014 08:35

Re Mr B's post on the 18th

Let's see production was static at 21 mt , and everyone frantic and running around like the end of the world . The latest estimates or forecasts are set so management can beat them.
Meanwhile have bought 450k shares at sub 45 , so thanks to the good folks who handed them over ....
Yawn back to the pool ....!

Anybody seen a RNS?

[ammons] 23/9/2014 08:33

It wasn't just oil contamination though, was it. I have lost count of the different reasons given and one of those is descending upon us soon. Freezing or otherwise bad weather conditions.

[1madmarky] 23/9/2014 08:09

Well that level of oil contamination was exactly why the last lot could not make a go of it. Their charcoal was getting trashed every other week. It also explains the intermittent performance of the IO2 site. Would be nice if both 5&6 were good sites, that would de-risk things nicely. AIMHO GLA

[superg1] 23/9/2014 07:52

Continuing the points.

I thought io5 was on a decent ppm site going on previous AGM comments. Then in news it talked about what a good site io6 is.

Thus I assumed the numbers were mixed up.

It seems both are on decent sites. Io6 as stated has a good quantity of brine as stated. IO5 they don't say too much on the quantity of brine but the suggestion is it's subject to frack disruption at times.

Io4 as we know, seems to be getting high volumes of brine now.

So it's seems once they sort the design changes, levels of production will increase. The changes are not onerous I understand, and talk of some tweaks already done.

As for brine levels at io2, if it's now not highly contaminated with oil it's bound to be producing more iodine that it was on the same relative amounts in the past.

IOF state post SWD upgrade production is expected to significantly increase. That gives a good idea of how contaminated the brine was.

I know some wonder if the tech works, well with the level of oil being mentioned per day, it's a wonder they managed to get any iodine out of it.

The SWD new tech reduces that oil by 98%.

[superg1] 22/9/2014 23:25

How is io6 poor, it only started mid month and they found some changes that had been made, it hasn't got out of first gear yet.

Io6 is said to be a good plant with good production prospects, and is backed up by company comments about it.

io5 started at the start of the month and we know it takes time to get up to speed, that had surprise changes too.

io4 wasn't getting good brine rates f=due to the gravity feed pipeline system, however as stated a booster pump is in and it will be getting plenty of brine now.

Once more that is something that was sorted for mid month

IO#4 is currently being upgraded with a booster system which will be placed on the Operators SWD site and will be capable of delivering 30,000+ barrels per day of brine to the plant. The upgrade is expected to be complete in mid-August. The SWD site consistently handles this volume on a daily basis, hence production is expected to increase significantly and should be realized during the second half of the month.


Iy doesn't sound like io2 did much for August, io6 didn't get past first gear, io5 wouldn't have been up to optimised rates and io5/6 changes found.

I tend to ignore io1, so it seems 3 and 4 did most of the August tonnage.

50/60mt should per month should be no problem as things are sorted out.

Last years revenue potentially to be exceeded by the end of Q3, so they are going in the right direction.

I suspect pod news will appear, perhaps in the interims, it all depends on the strategy.

What others are doing will help the strategy and on that front RB energy looks like it's going down the pan.

The chart has indicated previous news, and in the last few days it's taken a dive once more. 30th Sept is the expected do or die date, and it's had some sizeable selling today 17% down. Down 53% in the last few days, which tends to indicate to the TA type folk, that the finance they need isn't coming.

Surely they have been bulk selling their iodine inventory which would impact market prices, as they had 630 mt left.

[1madmarky] 22/9/2014 21:29

I don't think IO3,4 are quite that bad. CF said that the average ppm was 125,so I would hope closer to 8T per month. With IO5 & 6 better still, but they have to deliver. They have shown that it is possible to get good numbers.... Just waiting to see.

[che7win] 22/9/2014 21:07

BBC2, traders.

[monty panesar] 22/9/2014 20:17

Exactly but we have known that for 6 months. The only positive is they are still profitable as long as they produce around 4 t per month like io1.
Imagine where the share price would be now if they had put them in the right place?!
Once the mini's are put in place they can up plant production significantly. Also they indicated IO7 will be at a site like IO2.

[freshvoice] 22/9/2014 19:39

So if IO2 produces well over half output just shows how poor 3,4,5 and 6 are.
How much did we spend on those sites. They look pretty in the photos but seem as useful as chocolate teapots in terms of producing iodine.

[monty panesar] 22/9/2014 19:02

Alphacharlie,

I agree they should not give forward guidance at this point. Even though they have six plants running it is io2 that generates well over 50pc of output. If that has downtime in the month then it has a massive impact on the total...and then makes the management look stupid.
If io2 continues to settle down after the recent site upgrade then 1t per day from that plant should be the norm.

I want to hear about the first mini as that should produce at least 0.5t per day and provide some back up. We know the site is ready.

[mister market] 22/9/2014 14:44

Im selling nowt.

[mister penis] 22/9/2014 14:42

Dont worry about me either!

Been in Kimberly (nice girl) in local Aldi - She sells 9,000 carrots a month!
In terms of iofina if mr market wants to hand over cheap shares so be it. !!

[monkeymagic3] 22/9/2014 14:40

jetvan 22 Sep'14 - 14:02 - 24755 of 24757 1 0

Oh dear Mr Big. Do we need to club together for your airfare back to the UK lol



I'd rather pay to keep him where he is.

[mister big] 22/9/2014 14:34

Don't worry about me !
Been in Kimberly reviewing the mines - 9000 carats a month !
In terms of iofina if mr market wants to hand over cheap shares so be it. !!

[woolybanana] 22/9/2014 14:23

Any reason for today's price drop?