Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[jetvan] 22/9/2014 14:02

Oh dear Mr Big. Do we need to club together for your airfare back to the UK lol

[noujay] 22/9/2014 13:57

Excuse typos. Sentiment unaffected despite!

[noujay] 22/9/2014 13:56

What a absolute dog this is turned out to be. At this stage I can only hope that the poor interim results (and it must be fair to say that they won't hold any great joy) are already priced in!

[chumbo] 22/9/2014 11:21

Very shrewd Spike but if you're planning on making a killing shorting my long holdings you'll have to get your timing right.

I am particularly proud of the timing of my Pace investment where I bought on the Friday and on the Monday flooding in Thailand wiped out a large part of their hard disc drive supply capacity, and 40% of their share price along with it. It did recover but sometimes I feel like my share buying is like my foray into CFD's where I'm convinced that if I'd done the diametric opposite of the advice given I would be in clover. Anyway, I'm now cured of my CFD stupidity thankfully. If I have any bright ideas I'll keep you posted so you can short away :-)
Apols for O/T and for jinxing IOF by investing.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 22/9/2014 11:17

Oh dear, I don't like the look of this!

This one looks like it's about to capitulate. Careful...

[spike_1] 22/9/2014 10:25

Chumbo, would you care to tell us what else you are in ... forewarned is forearmed as they say ;0)

Best wishes - Mike

[chumbo] 22/9/2014 10:16

Ah yes Fresh, Tesco. Another one of my stunning investment choices. It's a good job I don't do this for a living....

[che7win] 22/9/2014 10:15

Superg,
One thing I don't understand is the flow issues to io2 as last September we had the following statement:

" The production outlook at IO#2 is positive considering the continuous development of oil wells with high iodine concentration brine being tied into IO#2. Recently a 12 inch brine pipeline was installed at IO#2 by the Operator to increase capacity. Initial volumes exceeded c.50,000 Barrels per Day. While this recent increase is expected to decline during drilling and fracking programmes, overall volume should afford excess brine over plant capacity. "

I assume it is temporary, but not clear to me yet.

[superg1] 22/9/2014 09:55

IO2

I get quite a few questions behind the scenes re io2 so here is my understanding of it.

Pre SWD upgrade.

Io2 was getting variable oil levels, some days 100's of barrels per day, that would work out to a massive loss of cash by the operator sending oil down disposal wells, many $millions worth. When you get such oil, it obviously affects yields, but it also means constant changes in the chemical mix needed with the variations.

The operator for it's own revenue loss problems has upgraded that SWD to the industry standard tech. As reported by IOF such tech reduces the oil in the brine by 98%.

EG If IOF were getting 200 bpd of oil in the brine, they will now get just 4.

The difference is huge.

On the back of the upgrade IOF forecast significant increases in production. That is down to the huge drop in the oil in the brine and less variations.

The tech is in, but the tweaking to get it working at optimum rates has been the delay (midstates side).

I note IOF mentioned in the last week things are normalising

Taking the points above, an io2 working on far lower oil rates will be having higher yields. So io2 can now in theory produce a lot more from the same bpd rate, or they same as prior to the upgrade on a lower bpd rate.

I've no idea what bpd rate it's currently at.

[freshvoice] 22/9/2014 09:46

So even Tesco with their vast staff can't get forecasts correct. LOL

[superg1] 22/9/2014 07:27

I believe they have their own wells. The talk was a while ago that they have depletion issues. It's suggested they are now pumping waste brine into the production level to try and increase pressures.

[freshvoice] 21/9/2014 23:24

Super
Does that mean they (the other I producers) will be hit with problems as fracking increases, just as we were? Or is their method more protected?

[superg1] 21/9/2014 21:05

I won't bore you guys with the links and paragraphs to read but Continental resources and others are getting very excited about the oil prospects in Oklahoma.

Now that doesn't mean more frack disruption around IOF's current plants as they are talking southern Okalahoma. Exploiting levels that other OK iodine producers have been producing from for years.

The talk is it will become the US number 3 oil state behind Texas and North Dakota.

[1madmarky] 21/9/2014 15:07

Monty - agreed, we should be reasonably safe in that regard.

[bobsworth] 21/9/2014 15:06

Monty
I have assumed the brine water supplies at plants 5 & 6 are very good because the recent unanticipated design changes occurred when the plants were quickly taken upto full production.
In light of this I wonder now if they will find that there is also a design issue on plants 3 & 4 aswell! I say this because these plants, due to brine supply interruptions, have not yet been taken upto full production.
With reference to the question I asked on plant2 on the lower water volumes following the SWD unit upgrade. The exact question I asked was:
"How confident are you that the lower brine volumes to plant 2 can be corrected to ensure best production."
To this Lance replied:
“As per RNS things are going in the right direction in the last week. Until done there is no assurance but going from 40 per cent to 70 per cent is huge move. Just need the last 30 per cent or a good portion of it”
So your assumption that it was volumes that he was referring to looks correct.

[monty panesar] 21/9/2014 14:13

Its a fair assumption to say if Io2 stabilises at 21k per day then it should mean October should be a 40t month. We should get a better idea from the interims which have to be published in next 9 days.
Any idea if the management time are coming to London after the results?

[superg1] 21/9/2014 13:12

It depends what typo you are.

[superg1] 21/9/2014 10:40

1MM

Thanks.It feels great not paying for it. A bit aggrieved I had paid annually in advance and couldn't cancel much earlier.

Month.

I understand some things are done but some to do. Whatever the numpty crew did affected yields as brine levels increased. It is fixable and some changes already made.

[1madmarky] 21/9/2014 09:29

SG - congratulations you are no longer a BLUE! :-D

[monty panesar] 21/9/2014 09:22

This post along with Bobsworth's have helped fill in some of the blanks. Do we know of IO5&6 both have max brine flows now going into them?

micknickbanny   19 Sep'14 - 15:50 - 24707 of 24735 1 0

I believe that io5 was initially performing better than io6 but was on limited brine supply at that time due to fracking. when the volumes began to increase its efficiencies began to dip. It was then discoveredthat some design elements introduced and implemented by the previous management ( and unbeknown to current management) were found wanting. seems previous management tried to improve the design without thoroughly checking it first prior to implementation. a matter which I think is/has been resolved. NAI

[superg1] 21/9/2014 09:04

I take that to mean running at 70 percent capacity. Previous news had brine going to the swd far in excess of 30k. New Wells increase brine rates to swds.
The difference now being that it's not heavily contaminated with oil, 98 percent less oil. That improves yields.
Fingers crossed for the continued and improving rates.

[ammons] 21/9/2014 08:28

Monty, you have assumed/guessed that all these percentages relate to water volumes of 30k bpd. Does it? Why not 18 or 10k a day. Going from 40% to 70% of what? The maximum that the IO2 plant can handle? The maximum that is available to it at this time? The amount available just before the upgrade, whatever that was? Sorry but the company needs to be more precise. I still haven't forgotten the comment about the IO5 plant "running VERY well" in the 14 August RNS.

[monty panesar] 21/9/2014 07:00

Interesting info Bobsworth. My interpretation of that is flow rates after the changes are now at 70% of 30k bpd ie. 21k.
For last year Io2 has only been running at around 18k. With the changes made they have gradually built the volumes up so they are now 15% higher than they were before but still have the extra 9k to go. You can understand why they wanted to make the changes considering at 18k IO2 was producing around 0.8t per day. That helps explain a lot.

[ammons] 21/9/2014 02:23

Lance promptly replied today:
“As per RNS things are going in the right direction in the last week. Until done there is no assurance but going from 40 per cent to 70 per cent is huge move. Just need the last 30 per cent or a good portion of it”.

Sorry for being thick but how does that statement relate to lower water volumes at IO2 or not as the case may be?

“As per RNS things are going in the right direction in the last week....." That bit is easy enough for a mug like me to understand.

"....Until done there is no assurance but going from 40 per cent to 70 per cent is huge move. Just need the last 30 per cent or a good portion of it”.

That means what exactly?