Intu Properties Share Discussion Threads

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 20:12

Technically, i have very rarely seen a company do what INTU has over the last 5 years, and survive

In most sectors this is a stone cold zero, despite all asset talk etc

But ive only traded businesses in this sector that were under normal condition. Dont know much about the finer detail .

What makes this different to nearly all the 38 other uk sectors where this would be a dead duck - even on same debt and asset numbers

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 20:09

America were out of business today

tomorrow will be more interesting

[zcaprd7] 20/1/2020 19:46

Quite a strong intra day performance today?

[arbus5000] 20/1/2020 17:45

69ZM INTU DEBENTURE PLC 5.562% FST MTGE DEB STK 31/12/27

is trading at 80p to the pound according to .

its down 35% since November, but hasn't really moved in 2020. Might be stale pricing but a capital raise is bond positive.


Its backed by mortgages of The Potteries Shopping Centre & the
Eldon Square Shopping Centre.

At 350m outstanding, the interest comes in at 20m p.a. , which equates to 0.4pps of the post raise div !

assuming the other debt is similarly charged, then paying down 1billion saves 1.14 per share in interest annualy !

[arbus5000] 20/1/2020 17:37

true, there is a dilutory effect of the raise.

i think its running in atleast 80m, which would make it 1.6p PS using your numbers. yielding at 7% at current prices (with scope for capital appreciation). Its somewhat equal to the NIY of the underlying porfolio.

[ericshunn] 20/1/2020 17:17

Raising a £1bn of equity at say 25pps adds 4bn to shares in issue.To pay a dividend of 10pps would require distribtable profits north of £500m. Can't be done.

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 17:11

Well you sound clued up on the sector Arbus. So i will shut down short 15p if gets there and throw the profit at the buy. See how it goes

[arbus5000] 20/1/2020 16:38

intu will have to restore its dividend in order to resume the REIT status, and this has to be 90% of profits.

This comes out at 10p per share, even with revenue reduction, so its a steal at this price. Intu is still solvent.

[williamcooper104] 20/1/2020 15:13

Just usually happens in a recession

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 13:09

And they can afford to do this

they get first call on the water down

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 13:05

0 0 0
sentiment, you are well behind the curve!... Your comments are correct though, that's however when the share price was at 60p plus though.

......

will just have to wait and see. How can this seriously get to february end , not striking 10p?

The funds at best, will want to distribute now and buy double the stock later.

This wont be going anywhere fast - higher price is simply good distribution price in january/ early feb

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 13:03

Its natural cycle for this sector, and bank sector too, to go through valuation writedowns in cycles. So either the market deemed INTUs as ridiculous in the first instance, or there is even more to this not yet known

For me, i dont call a business operationally profitable if its not creating free cashflow after costs and debt interest cover

[williamcooper104] 20/1/2020 13:03

Anchor department stores are usually on v low passing rents so if they vacate you can get much higher rents - but only after huge capex and some loss of net rentable areas But main space users are generally over rented and replacement tenants do not pay higher rents The replacements are often "temporary" lettings which cover up ERV falls Remember that P&L tells you little - better to apply AFFO and adjust for capex at c20-30 percent of rents

[ny boy] 20/1/2020 13:01

The stinger, what is your ideal a low ball offer?

[the stinger] 20/1/2020 13:00

sentiment, you are well behind the curve!... Your comments are correct though, that's however when the share price was at 60p plus though.

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 12:56

Well Arbus, the market is treating is as a loss- maker. Its certainly not supporting a company that is operationally profitable and just an accounting change that means little on paper

[the stinger] 20/1/2020 12:51

Airbus5000, very astute. Quite correct. This is being primed for takeover.

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 12:51

All i can find is its 5.5% debenture. Thats falling line a stone

[harry3021] 20/1/2020 12:48

how are Intu's bonds doing? are they traded in public?

[arbus5000] 20/1/2020 12:48

there's no cash burn. its operationally profitable. the loss is due to revaluation of the property value at lower yields. This is debatable as the replacement's for the CVA'd retailers pay more rent !

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 12:45

When debt is circa 14 times your market value, and you are in cash burn mode, the assets suddenly look a whole lot different

[the stinger] 20/1/2020 12:40

Currently undervalued, asset value £8 billion , debt £4.5 billion. Even with a further £1 billion from the asset value!!!, Not rocket science here... Hence low ball bid soon

[tomboyb] 20/1/2020 12:35

Market cap is 287million -

Raising 1 billion is almost 4x current cap -

But i think further problems will just be beginning -

This is why i think debt holders will end up owning this -

The other option as someone pointed out is a lowball offer =