Intu Properties Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 20/1/2020 12:32

Could well be Would still expect the share price to rally (but probably from a lower level than current sp) once the rights issue is launched/underwritten (will be underwritten if main shareholders have given commitments) as the near term solvency risk would have then been removed (but medium term still vulnerable unless values have bottomed)

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 12:32

Well dilution should be end of fund buying. Distribution mode but they need buyers to distribute... wonder what price they can start sacking it off to retail?

[the stinger] 20/1/2020 12:30

They are running the rule over on this as we type.. 40p to 45p bid

[arbus5000] 20/1/2020 12:26

it does. trafford center is worth three times of the market cap of Intu alone. Add in Watford and Lakeside.

Repurpose the rest if not economically viable.

[williamcooper104] 20/1/2020 12:24

Yep - run through the economics of turning a regionally dominant shoping centre into an amazon shed As a shed say £12 rent at 25 yp which with rent frees and purchasers costs is around £250psf - then take away £20 psf for conversation costs (likely much higher) and you are at £220 But then adjust for density and on a like for like you are at £70-90 psf Which is c£8-12 psf rent on 12-14 cap rate Makes sense for deeply secondary centres or maybe for retail warehouse which have low density to begin with But not for intu

[the stinger] 20/1/2020 12:23

Wait for the low ball bid first. It's coming!

[tomboyb] 20/1/2020 12:17

To me it looks like if they can get to raise the 1 billion, they will still need to ride out a very difficult storm -

The equity looks shagged so a consolidation might actually be better -

The interest payments on the debt etc -

Overall, you lookat and think can they possibly recover from this position -

I think it will eventually be owned by the debt holders -

[tomboyb] 20/1/2020 12:02

Different market warehouses -

Which incidentally looks to be a big future for big retailers -

These guys need to raise £1billion - (will it be enough)

Huge amount of debt (its massive) -

[arbus5000] 20/1/2020 11:57

bah humbug. segro went through this in 2009 and look at it now.

amazon wharehouses !!

[williamcooper104] 20/1/2020 09:33

It would still be v high relative to typical reit gearing of c30 something LTV And most reits have assets that can cope with debt better than intu But if this is the bottom of the market (or close) assuming it's cyclical not structural and a consumer recession is a long way away then it's probably enough

[chiragmahe] 20/1/2020 09:06

is 1B enough? This will reduce the debt from 4.7B to 3.7B. Still the LTV looks high at above 50%.

Is this correct?

[nickrl] 20/1/2020 08:56

INTU have put out this RNS



reaffirming the equity raise is still firmly on the radar along with other updates suggesting reasonable trading - what it doesn't say is how much NRI has been impacted over last six months and that will have to wait for FY end of Feb.

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 08:50

Would like to break 18.9 today or I wouldn't bother hanging about

[sentimentrules] 20/1/2020 08:49

Not much anyone could say since 36p sbb

Bide time and decide on limit . Would like 15p but near close determines it

[sbb1x] 20/1/2020 08:43

Really surprised nobody posting in this board

[sbb1x] 20/1/2020 08:07

The person that sold 57,000@22.49 on the bell might be able to buy them back at a much lower price!

[sbb1x] 20/1/2020 07:54

10p anyone ?

[williamcooper104] 20/1/2020 06:40

Of course Simon won't write down properties - they're held at cost - US reits don't red book their balance sheets

[williamcooper104] 20/1/2020 06:38

Arbus - the cap value psf of an Amazon shed is way way less than that of one of intus shopping centres - to say nothing of the density

[escapetohome] 20/1/2020 01:37

Sure, just when a lot of talk is going on about mending our broken high street, and boris recognines the problem, and that something has to be done.

[arbus5000] 20/1/2020 01:01

hate to sound like a broken record, but turn the rest into amazon fulfilment centers. These places are spacey, and have excellent transport links. Prologis has a PE of 33 .

the EPRA valuation of the assets is flawed - it takes into account the current trend of falling rent payments into the yield calculation/property valuation, but it does not fully reflect the market value if the assets where feasibly put to other uses. The downward trend in rents may also be bottoming - house of frasier can go bust only once - and the for these places, the writing has been long on the wall .


Given that we have had the writedowns already, most of the bad news is priced in. The share price fall, is more of a reflection of this accounting flaw than any material change in the underlying assets. Brexit, and the retail acopolypse of the late 2010 should not have caught anybody off guard.

The retail closures are not necessarily a bad thing - look at the closure of House of Frasier, replacing with a Harrods @Lakeside and a net increase in footfall. There's room for more: In this day and age, Debenhams can no longer be considered an anchor, and the sooner it is replaced with a rent paying anchor, the better! The team does more than collect rent, it is now has proven experience in rebalancing the mix of shops in any given center to improve footfall & profitability.

Online retailers are increasing their offline presence also. A boohoo outlet maybe?

[ericshunn] 20/1/2020 00:24

Manhester/Lakeside and possibly Watford may have some equity value. The rest of the portfolio is, however,probably destined for a rental and capital value death spiral.

[ericshunn] 20/1/2020 00:19

Why on earth would anyone put new money in. All the management have done is collect (very expensively in terms of a mment/rent cost rayou) rents for 30 years