Internet Business Share Discussion Threads

[baheid101] 27/4/2007 15:14

Hi Everyone

Interesting times indeed. Good to see Ken/OBR/Analyst etc all posting their thoughts (OBR - hope no hard feelings from previous encounters here, I was a bit of a petulant little tyke looking back at it now).

I was at the AGM and got reasonable answers to my questions but had to duck out to get back to the office before the end so missed out on the chance to chat those of you from ADVFN that made it.

I just hope that putting a for sale sign on the company when it is so lowly valued doesn't backfire, because the share price before the announcement will be one of the reference points for bidders. The rationale for this still does not stack up at all - if he wants to do a bigger acquisition or ratchet up expansion in a way that will temporarily dilute earnings then he should just get on with it using the companies cash resources and bank debt and let the proof be in the pudding over the medium to long term. If it is the right thing to do stategically then I don't see why the only options are (a) part finance with equity, which he can't do because of the lowly rating and lack of institutional backing or (b) put the business up for sale.

Cheers

BH

[old boy returns] 27/4/2007 15:00

Ken - if I had as many shares as you and was invited to the 'inside' I would make the sacrifice and go over. That is what the large institutional shareholders often do. The only real negative for you would be not being able to trade while on the inside but realistically with your size holding you would not be able to sell that many at acceptable levels on market.

[old boy returns] 27/4/2007 14:53

Hi Ken - I am very well thankyou. Not been here much for over a year as I have not been buying or selling shares but just letting them take care of themselves while I do other things. But there are a few interesting developments with a couple of my larger holdings right now so I have come out of 'retirement' to keep an eye on things. I would tend to agree that a sensible bid woulod have to be north of 50p but we also need to bear in mind that Maz and Dan Chick are both pretty critical to IBG and if they get disillusioned or lose motivation then the business would suffer. So if they have had enough of running a listed company and want out I feel 50p would be better than the alternative.

[kenatbabken] 27/4/2007 14:43

OBR

How ya doing,Long time since we,ve seen you here,Hope you,re well.

You are correct in that if Maz divulged anything of that nature I would
have to be Made Inside and unable to comment or trade the shares.

Got to say that any bid would have to be well over 50p before I was happy,
I don,t mind taking paper if its with the right Company. Its still highly
speculative that a bid will be forthcoming but fascinating few weeks ahead
though

Ken

[old boy returns] 27/4/2007 14:31

Aleman - my take on the situation is that they have announced enough to cover general / preliminary discussions with interested parties without having to make another formal announcement. But if someone were to table an offer they would have to notify the market. The problem for us minority shareholders is that, given the size of Maz's shareholding and his position within the business, I cannot see a formal bid being tabled unless Maz has first said he would accept it. So it is possible that Maz could be presented with an informal offer of, say 50p a share, and if he says no go we would never hear a thing about it. I have seen it happen before and it can be a problem for shareholders as sometimes management place an over-optimistic value on 'their' business which never materialises after they refuse to back an informal bid. It is hard to get around this situation and even if an individual shareholder could get an inside track (eg Maz agreed to keep Ken informed of developments) that person would then become an insider and be unable to trade their shares.

"Aleman - 27 Apr'07 - 12:35 - 1741 of 1745

That seems fair enough for general discussions, but the accounts are clear so what if someone just walks in with a 50p offer? Surely they would have to release that as too many having inside information would cause a leak over 2 or 3 months."

[kenatbabken] 27/4/2007 14:00

2 X 31.5p V 6 X 32.5

My online limits Buy 5k Sell 75k

[waynerwayner] 27/4/2007 13:27

Anyone got level 2?

[68steve] 27/4/2007 13:23

No change online 150k bid 31.75,offer 1k 32.3p...Come on MM`s playball...

[jwe] 27/4/2007 13:17

Big sales being swallowed at above offer,looks promising.Glad i added further this am

[aleman] 27/4/2007 12:35

That seems fair enough for general discussions, but the accounts are clear so what if someone just walks in with a 50p offer? Surely they would have to release that as too many having inside information would cause a leak over 2 or 3 months.

[the analyst] 27/4/2007 12:33

You're right there aleman, but I'm sure just seeing it start to rise might brighten his weekend a bit, even if it is not yet where he wants it to be.

Mind you, he's probably blissfully unaware, with his head half way up a server somewhere...

[stemis] 27/4/2007 12:26

I wouldn't have thought so personally. Its clear from the announcement that they plan to talk to interested parties, so the fact that they are isn't really news.

[aleman] 27/4/2007 12:23

If the company has issued an RNS about exploring options, do they then have to issue news of any approaches?

the analyst - I don't think a price anywhere around here will cheer Maz and co up. They are about 50% of where they should be.

[the analyst] 27/4/2007 12:22

Hope these price moves are cheering Maz up!

[waynerwayner] 27/4/2007 12:20

yep, and here it comes...

[68steve] 27/4/2007 12:05

Online limits can only mean one thing"Friday afternoon rally"...

[yump] 27/4/2007 11:54

O/T plug which I can't resist (triggered by Aleman's post above) excerpt as follows:

"Advertisers are increasingly driven toward a more direct access to the consumer base through personalized digital media."

Anyone wanting a small cap play on that, have a look at Tangent TNG. Looks like everything is in place there. Michael Green's sons + a recent acquisition with a placing which increased the shares in issue by 50%, but which might lead to a doubling of earnings. Watch for interims. Off its high atm.

[waynerwayner] 27/4/2007 11:54

Online limits are hilarious... you can sell 150k and you can buy a maximum of 1k!!!

[the blackster] 27/4/2007 11:34

Should go over last high pre-interims IMO

[68steve] 27/4/2007 11:23

14 months of consolidation somethings got to give,maybe if Maz used quotes like"business going gangbusters" a la Nick Robertson ASC,the share price would already be 40p+,makes you wonder!!!

[taurusthebear] 27/4/2007 11:15

45p and even I might be tempted to top-slice! :0)

[waynerwayner] 27/4/2007 11:11

The chart is reaching north nicely, from a technical chart point of view this is going to 45p in the next 2 weeks... would be nice...

[lauders] 27/4/2007 11:00

I would hope that Alice and/or Carmensfella post their views on the IBG meeting many of you attended as well. It would be nice to see their take on the proceedings and I am sure one of both of them will post their views shortly. I didn't time my buy of IBG shares too well in January, but am sure I will be in profit in the near future. Very interesting times and price action!

[68steve] 27/4/2007 10:12

Unless a large seller appears 40p seems to be the general conscensus...

[the analyst] 27/4/2007 10:11

Following on from the valuations posts of mine earlier, one further method of valuing the company would be to base it purely on turnover. The TradeDoubler and LeadClick acquisitions have both been valued at 4x past revenue for the takeovers by AOL and First Adv respectively. For AF that would currently equate to about £44m.

Of course, with current rates of growth, we are likely to see a big improvement on that revenue figure this year. I'm certainly looking forward to seeing the H1 AF revenue figures with anticipation...