Internet Business Share Discussion Threads

[upthetic] 26/4/2007 15:50

twice recently 32.5p has been a level of resistance so I presume it will be a milestone. Beyond that we are really in untested waters where we have only ventured briefly on two occasions

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 15:46

Haven't read all this yet, but more research here than you can shake a stick at.










Have almost finshed compiling the list of EV/EBITDA 2006 and 2007 figures for other networks. will post later...

[waynerwayner] 26/4/2007 15:45

Would guess its 34p... assuming it dosent do the usual drop back to 26p... ;)

[muffinhead] 26/4/2007 15:44

bet the bible bashers are feelin better

[the blackster] 26/4/2007 15:44

40p fair value was where I called it earlier in the week though no idea what the board think this should be at...Nice to see what happens when a decent buy comes in - when buyers see how undervalued the stock is and add in the factor that strategic options are being pursued we should see the price increase with this lack of stock. Would be nice to see some more buyers though - perhaps they're on early Summer holidays...

[muffinhead] 26/4/2007 15:40

next stop?

[waynerwayner] 26/4/2007 15:40

wow, wonder where this is going...

[valustar1] 26/4/2007 15:29

Thats better!!

[valustar1] 26/4/2007 15:28

Price must be being held back by the MM's

[valustar1] 26/4/2007 15:26

300k buy at 32p!

Someone wants stock and is prepared to pay well over the current price.

[spangle93] 26/4/2007 13:46

Regarding EBITDA for 2007 calculations by the Analyst and SteMis...
Monday's RNS stated
"The Board is pleased to confirm that trading is in line with current management expectations.

Not "industry forecasts", or "broker expectations"

On the basis that this company in official statements is usually conservative, does that affect your projections?

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 12:54

The US peer group trade on £47.5x 2006 and 36.3x 2007 earnings

That's PE, no data was given for US peers EV/EBITDA unfortunately, which I think may be a better indicator of value

[muffinhead] 26/4/2007 12:48

if nothing materialises and Maz regains his strength for more organic output...recent bets off the table and we trot back to 26...happened with dgm...what dippy manic depressives we are

[aleman] 26/4/2007 12:41

Not off the top of my head. I'm out for a while now as well.

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 12:39

Cheers, Aleman. Do you know the 2006 and 2007 EV/EBITDAs for TD?

Maybe that's the type of figure Maz is looking for in a sale.

[muffinhead] 26/4/2007 12:38

which of couse the management is proactively looking for offers...after initial signs of interest comes the horse trading

[muffinhead] 26/4/2007 12:36

I think we wil be threading water for a good while until an offer materialises. Poss news by interims.

38p target immediately a sniff of an offer comes

[aleman] 26/4/2007 12:34

The company is increasingly international in a market where consolidation is international. US companies could get an important foothold in Europe to cross sell media services in an acquisition that could be earnings enhancing with IBG's price at considerably higher prices so , yes, it is reasonable considering the aim was always to do some kind of deal. TD is not American, anyway, and they are on a very high rating, and were before the unsuccessful takover attempt. Whether it would be justifiable to compare ratings of others like IPH and TMN to the US is very open to debate. IBG has not been dependent on acquisitions for rapid growth in its core business for a start.

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 12:27

Aleman, do you think it's reasonable to compare valuations of US companies to UK companies though? It's quite pleasing from the perpective of giving a bullish read on things, but historically, don't US companies trade on far higher valuations that we rarely see here?

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 12:26

Yes, Stemis, just noticed that too when I re-read it. I typed in the wrong numbers and have now edited the post. I come to the 40p conclusion as fair value for now too.

I'm not sure 40p was the sort of valuation Maz had in mind when he was talking during the AGM, though.

[stemis] 26/4/2007 12:24

The IBG market cap is currently £22.3m and EBITDA forecast for 2007 is £2.1m. Cash at year end was £1.4m, so EV based on that is about £20.9m now, and should rise to around £22.4m by year end based on current share price and if they bring in £1.5m cash during the year.

Don't you mean - EV based on that is about £20.9m now, and should fall to around £19.4m by year end?

So, EV/EBITDA for 2007 = 19.4/2.1 = 9.2 x

On that basis IBG would be valued at around 39p.

I don't think that would be too unreasonable.

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 12:19

Has anyone else here done those type of calculations recently? Am I missing something?

[the analyst] 26/4/2007 12:18

The regular PE for the online advertising sector is different. According to Canaccord, the UK peer group currently run at 29x earnings for 2006 and 21.1x 2007 earnings.

At pre-tax £1.1m for 2006 and an estimated £1.9m for 2007, that puts IBG on a 2006 PE of 20.3 and 2207 PE of 11.7.

That makes IBG look more undervalued, but in using P rather than EV, it doesn't take into account the cash held by peers.