Internet Business Share Discussion Threads

[cr4zyness] 23/4/2007 13:03

A stategic review, could that be another way of putting a profit warning?

[stemis] 23/4/2007 13:01

As you say the timing is interesting. I'm surprised they announced it the day before the AGM. They are pretty guaranteed some extensive questioning from shareholders. Unless that's what they want then it does suggest the timing wasn't completely in their hands.

[aleman] 23/4/2007 12:57

The point is it seems there has been an approach or some kind of interest in the company, or strategic move that will offer value.

I would have thought a strategic review is more likely to be indicative of an internal change. The timing, just before the AGM, is less likely to be externally influenced, although it is highly likely to flush out further external interest.

[the blackster] 23/4/2007 12:52

Aleman - any option is just as likely. My guess is a bid could be afoot or some other capital transcation. I don't see what directors holdings have got to do with preventing a full bid. Perhaps the directors are ready to realise some value, perhaps the bids that are being mentioned in the background - if there are any - are at a high valuation. Directors are there to get value for all of us and themselves - I don't see what's relevant about their holdings in this respect beyond that they have the same vested interest in taking a bid seriously. The point is it seems there has been an approach or some kind of interest in the company, or strategic move that will offer value. In a word. Great.

Re the media division I see this as a good move. In the sector Valueclick has always been about this kind of online media and marketing diversity. AOL have tried to buy Tradedoubler to broaden out their media footprint, Google has just bought double click, closer to home dgm has been selling media space to some success. Margins are high. It's a good opportunity. In terms of the valuation of the business IMO it adds something interesting, the affiliate side will be easier to value with its track record and accompanying market growth, the media side offers raw potential and adds another attractive hook to any potential bidder. All IMO etc.

[yump] 23/4/2007 12:48

The comparison with ASOS is interesting as it reminded me that IBG should actually be on a (much?) higher rating than ASC. Which one has to spend the most time and money keeping its brand in the public eye ? Which one is always going to be subject to pricing pressures and margin pressures. Which one is always going to be subject to 'me-too' competitors as it has no technological barriers to entry ? Which one could go into long term permanent decline if their offering goes out of fashion ? etc. etc. etc.

and of course which one thinks affiliates are grubby anyway ? ;-)

Unfortunately ASC has an easy-to-understand, very visible business.
IBG is an enabler, but not an enabler that everyone sees when they switch on their PC.

[aleman] 23/4/2007 12:32

My point was that there are a number of options but that a bid from outside for the lot seems a less likely one at the moment. Something else is probably afoot.

[68steve] 23/4/2007 12:19

Iseem to recall a year or 2 ago Maz mentioned "footprints in the sand" and the likes of WPP name mentioned regards future buyout,anybody remember where?

[waynerwayner] 23/4/2007 12:16

"There could be a management buyout or an external purchase of retail or non-retail, and it could end up with no listings or two."

Thanks for clearing that up...

[spacecowboy3] 23/4/2007 12:12

The Blackster

Since I see you have a background in affiliate marketing I wondered what you make of IBG's establishment of a 'media' division - Henoo and all that. Maz and co are obviously very keen on it but I've said before on this board that I don't fully understand why - even having done some research on the subject myself.

Just interested in your views if you're prepared to share them.

[aleman] 23/4/2007 12:11

I strongly suspect the company has been approached informally about a bid in the past, probably by more than one party, and interest will be ongoing. They would have been prepared to pay a premium then and the business has continued to grow since, so a full takeover at these levels seems a non-starter given directors' holdings. A bit of short term share price weakness probably doesn't make much difference. The company has never struck me as being short term in outlook. The changes at the retail side, where growth is expected to increase after some investment, are likely to be a signifant factor in the announcement today. It doesn't sit with the long term aims of the group, so they are probably considering how to split it off, and what to do with the money. There could be a management buyout or an external purchase of retail or non-retail, and it could end up with no listings or two. It may have been put up for review because of internal tensions developing within the company and changes in personal circumstances of the small number of directors. I think there are a number of options which will make tomorrow interesting.

[the blackster] 23/4/2007 12:03

Just over .6% I think - not quite in with all the early buyers but started getting on board after I left my own affiliate marketing company at the 17p stage and have been following ever since. No crystal ball but it looks like a winner. Consolidation has been on the cards in the UK in this sector and this is no surprise - the debate will rage whether its the right time or not but either way this is an attractive company and a good buy for any number of online/media players.

[waynerwayner] 23/4/2007 11:53

Heading for 1% there Blackster...

[the blackster] 23/4/2007 11:41

Masurenguy - check my post above - the 160,000 is mine and its a buy - I've increased my holding from 330,000 to 490,000.

[masurenguy] 23/4/2007 10:48

Well there are two big T trades of 250k & 160k at 29.6p and 30p respectively. Could either be buys or sells but I would suspect that both, and particularly the 160K, are Buys.

[68steve] 23/4/2007 10:43

Very strange on target for £20m+ revenue,Nett assets approaching £4.5-5m,Crazy...

[waynerwayner] 23/4/2007 10:39

They must be certified...

[68steve] 23/4/2007 10:37

Peeps selling !!!!!!!!!!!!???????

[hirschnathan] 23/4/2007 10:30

About a year or two ago I spoke to whoever the broker was then and they told me maz was expecting a buyout of about £1.

Maybe strategic review means to sell sweatband or just to list sweatband as a seperate plc?

[waynerwayner] 23/4/2007 10:29

76m isc and 1m+ bought already today, stock will run low fast here...

[masurenguy] 23/4/2007 10:27

TaurusTheBear - 23 Apr'07 - 10:20 - 1504 of 1505: Why should a company bid now if they didn't before?
...............................................................................

If 'they' didn't bid before what ?

SP has dropped since the results so any predator might think that they might be able to acquire it at a lower price today than might have been the case last month. At this stage it is all speculation - may be further clarification tomorrow !

[the blackster] 23/4/2007 10:22

Just bagged 160,000 - that's my late trade. Should be interesting to see where this ends up firstly at the end of the week as this news spreads and more importantly as the strategic review develops over the coming weeks...with valuations on the US side stratospheric it's only going one way - doubtful we'll get those massive multiples but the valuation has got to be good for a company with this growth, track record and the potential of the new media division.

[taurusthebear] 23/4/2007 10:20

Why should a company bid now if they didn't before? Does a friendly bid mean they'll get IBG on any better terms than a hostile bid? Slightly bemused! :0)

[68steve] 23/4/2007 10:17

40p should be short term target,would expect Altium to reiterate 44p target and potential for more upside given bid target...IMHO.

[waynerwayner] 23/4/2007 10:14

Afternoon push to 34p anyone?

[masurenguy] 23/4/2007 09:46

Quite possible - interesting thought 68steve !